Track Aluminium Sheet Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global aluminium sheet market has demonstrated a mix of volatility and resilience across regions during the period from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025. Influenced by tariffs, logistics pressures, energy costs, and sector-specific demand trends, prices have exhibited divergent trajectories in North America, APAC, Europe, and the Middle East & Africa (MEA).

In North America, U.S. aluminium sheet prices have been buoyed by Section 232 tariffs, elevated Midwest premiums, and constrained raw material supply, despite subdued demand in construction and packaging sectors. APAC markets, particularly Malaysia, have experienced freight-driven cost pressures, coupled with measured domestic procurement, keeping price movements modest. Europe, especially Germany, saw mixed trends, where rising energy costs, EU ETS charges, and automotive and aerospace demand created nuanced price dynamics. Meanwhile, MEA markets, led by UAE, reflected logistics-driven price adjustments supported by state infrastructure procurement.

This report examines quarterly price trends, production costs, supply-demand dynamics, and regional forecasts, offering buyers and stakeholders a comprehensive outlook for procurement, pricing strategy, and market intelligence.

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Introduction

Aluminium sheet remains a cornerstone material in multiple industries, including automotive, construction, aerospace, packaging, and consumer goods. Global price dynamics are increasingly influenced by a combination of geopolitical developments, trade policies, supply chain logistics, and sector-specific demand variations.

From Q4 2024 through Q3 2025, the aluminium sheet market has experienced notable fluctuations driven by:

Tariff and trade policies in North America, particularly Section 232 impacts on primary aluminum imports.
Logistics and freight costs in APAC and MEA, affecting landed prices.
Energy and environmental regulations in Europe, increasing production costs.
Sectoral demand shifts, with automotive, aerospace, and infrastructure sectors providing mixed support.
This article provides a structured, region-wise analysis, highlighting historical trends, production and cost structures, procurement patterns, and future forecasts.

Global Aluminium Sheet Price Overview

Globally, aluminium sheet prices for the quarter ending September 2025 demonstrate region-specific trends:

North America: Average price USD 5,915/MT, with a 4.9% quarter-over-quarter increase driven by tariff-induced feedstock cost shocks and Midwest premium escalation.
APAC: Average price USD 3,142.33/MT (CFR Malaysia), reflecting logistics and freight pressures, with only moderate spot price movements.
Europe: Average price USD 12,194.33/MT (FD-Koblenz, Germany), impacted by high energy tariffs, EU ETS charges, and mixed downstream demand.
MEA: Average price USD 3,113.67/MT (CFR UAE), where state infrastructure projects and freight costs shaped market behavior.
Key global drivers include:

Tariffs and trade policies influencing North American import costs.
Freight and logistics pressures in APAC and MEA.
Energy pricing and carbon costs affecting European production margins.
Sector-specific demand in automotive, aerospace, and construction influencing spot markets.

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Regional Analysis

North America

Quarterly Movements

In the USA, the Aluminium Sheet Price Index rose 4.9% in Q3 2025, reaching approximately USD 5,915/MT. This increase was primarily driven by:

Elevated Midwest premiums due to Section 232 tariffs on primary aluminum.
Limited domestic capacity for raw material, causing supply bottlenecks.
Import challenges, including higher landed costs and logistics expenses.

Historical Context:

Q2 2025 saw a 2.4% increase, with a sharp 6% spike in June due to tariff doubling and constrained primary aluminum supply.
Q1 2025 showed steady growth, with March ending 3% higher amid tariff implementation and supply tightening.
Q4 2024 reflected volatility, with prices fluctuating but stabilizing around USD 5,325/MT.

Cost Trends

Elevated Midwest premiums became a primary cost driver.
Logistics and duty escalations contributed to higher landed costs.
Production costs reflected inflation in raw material and freight charges.

Procurement Behavior

Buyers delayed discretionary purchases due to rising inventory and costs.
Strategic timing adjustments mitigated acute spot price volatility.

Supply Conditions

Domestic mills operated at limited capacity; imports faced tariff-related constraints.
Chinese exports experienced maintenance-driven reductions, further tightening supply.
Trade-Flow Impacts

Section 232 tariffs doubled import costs, pressuring domestic pricing.
Limited raw material availability favored domestic procurement and elevated premiums.

Demand Outlook

Weak construction demand and substitution pressures limited consumption.
Automotive and packaging sectors provided selective support, especially for recycled aluminum.
Forecast Q4 2025: Prices are expected to remain volatile, with inventory adjustments and tariff developments shaping short-term movements.

Asia-Pacific (APAC)

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Quarterly Movements

In Malaysia, the Aluminium Alloy Sheet Price Index rose 3.05% in Q3 2025, with an average price of USD 3,142.33/MT. Key drivers included:

Elevated intra-Asia freight costs.

Port congestion and logistics-related landed cost increases.
Moderate procurement from downstream industries.

Historical Context:

Q2 2025 saw a 4% decline, reflecting fragile domestic demand and temporary freight surges.
Q1 2025 ended relatively flat at USD 3,130/MT, balancing logistics-driven volatility with stable primary metal pricing.
Q4 2024 exhibited stability with automotive sector support.

Cost Trends

Production costs were heavily influenced by freight surcharges and port delays.
Primary aluminum pricing remained stable; the cost push stemmed from logistics.

Procurement Behavior

Domestic buyers adopted selective, measured procurement strategies.
Limited urgency in bookings despite elevated landed costs, moderated by adequate Chinese export availability.

Supply Conditions

Chinese export flows remained adequate but intermittent.
Distributor inventories helped maintain orderly market adjustments, avoiding abrupt spot price spikes.

Trade-Flow Impacts

Port congestion and freight surcharges affected landed costs.
Imports continued to dominate supply in Malaysia, influencing price formation.

Demand Outlook

Construction projects provided moderate support.
Private-sector procurement remained cautious, reflecting mixed macroeconomic sentiment.
Forecast Q4 2025: Prices are expected to show modest monthly variation, easing slightly as freight costs normalize and restocking continues.

Europe

Quarterly Movements

In Germany, the Aluminium Sheet Price Index fell 3.42% in Q3 2025, with the average price at USD 12,194.33/MT. Market behavior was shaped by:

Rising LME and exchange inventories, weakening domestic pricing power.
Mixed downstream demand: automotive and aerospace supported niche volumes, while construction remained subdued.

Historical Context:

Q2 2025 saw a 0.5% increase, supported by automotive and aerospace demand.
Q1 2025 observed moderate growth, with prices ending at USD 12,777/MT amid EU energy cost pressures.
Q4 2024 exhibited stability despite weak construction demand, with prices at USD 12,135/MT.

Cost Trends

Elevated energy tariffs and EU ETS carbon charges increased production costs.
Logistics and inland transport charges contributed to overall cost pressures.

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Procurement Behavior

Buyers front-loaded purchases in response to rising energy and transport costs.
Inventory adjustments moderated price volatility.

Supply Conditions

Mills operated reliably, avoiding major outages.
Domestic conversion margins were compressed, despite adequate ingot availability.

Trade-Flow Impacts

EU import restrictions and tariffs shielded domestic producers.
LME price fluctuations influenced regional spot pricing.

Demand Outlook

Automotive and aerospace segments provided localized support.
Construction demand remained weak, limiting broader price recovery.
Forecast Q4 2025: Price volatility is expected to persist, with alternating rebounds influenced by automotive ordering cycles and energy cost fluctuations.

Middle East & Africa (MEA)

Quarterly Movements

In UAE, the Aluminium Sheet Price Index rose 2.63% in Q3 2025, averaging USD 3,113.67/MT. Market dynamics were influenced by:

Freight-driven landed cost increases.
Ongoing state infrastructure procurement sustaining demand.
Chinese export inflows moderating shortages.

Historical Context:

Q2 2025 experienced a 6.9% decline, reflecting inventory-driven volatility.
Q1 2025 ended modestly higher at USD 3,240/MT, supported by regional infrastructure projects.
Q4 2024 showed initial price increases followed by stabilization at USD 3,206/MT.

Cost Trends

Freight and input costs contributed to rising production costs.
Importers faced margin pressure due to CFR cost escalation.
Procurement Behavior

Public-sector projects drove consistent procurement.
Private sector remained cautious, tempering spot market activity.
Supply Conditions

Chinese inflows eased supply shortages but logistics constraints persisted.
Importer operations maintained market continuity.

Trade-Flow Impacts

CFR costs directly influenced pricing.
Infrastructure-driven demand dictated import levels.

Demand Outlook

State projects supported steady consumption.
Private-sector demand remained softer, but overall market balance was maintained.
Forecast Q4 2025: Moderate price variations expected, primarily sensitive to freight and logistics developments.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Raw Material Costs: Tariffs in North America, freight in APAC and MEA, and energy/carbon costs in Europe dominate production expenses.
Conversion & Rolling Costs: Stable but influenced by regional labor, energy tariffs, and environmental compliance.
Logistics & Freight: A key cost driver in APAC and MEA, influencing CFR and landed prices.
Inventory Management: Inventory levels affect price volatility, with high stocks tempering spot price surges.

Procurement Outlook

Buyers are adopting strategic timing approaches, aligning purchases with tariff changes, freight adjustments, and inventory signals.
North America: Delayed discretionary purchases, focus on domestic sourcing.
APAC: Selective procurement, cautious restocking.
Europe: Front-loaded purchases for automotive/aerospace sectors.
MEA: Infrastructure-driven procurement dominates, with private sector cautious.

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FAQ: Aluminium Sheet Market

Q1: Why did North American aluminium sheet prices rise in September 2025?
A1: Tariff-induced primary aluminum shortages elevated the Midwest premium, increasing import landed costs, while weak construction demand limited consumption and tempered sustained price momentum.

Q2: Why did APAC aluminium sheet prices change in September 2025?
A2: Elevated freight costs, port congestion, and logistical surcharges increased landed costs. Adequate Chinese exports moderated urgency, limiting price gains despite ongoing cost pressures.

Q3: Why did European prices decline in September 2025?
A3: Rising LME and exchange inventories increased oversupply. Elevated energy tariffs and EU ETS charges raised costs, while cautious downstream demand limited recovery.

Q4: What drives MEA aluminium sheet pricing fluctuations?
A4: State infrastructure procurement supports demand; freight and input cost changes affect landed prices. Chinese export inflows and logistics uncertainties also shape market behavior.

Q5: How do logistics and freight impact aluminium sheet prices globally?
A5: Freight surcharges directly influence CFR pricing in APAC and MEA. Port congestion and transport delays can elevate landed costs and moderate spot market volatility.

Q6: What is the procurement strategy for aluminium sheet buyers?
A6: Buyers adjust timing based on tariff, freight, and inventory signals. Strategic restocking is common in Europe and MEA, while North American buyers rely on domestic sourcing to mitigate import cost risks.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers

ChemAnalyst offers unmatched market intelligence and actionable insights for aluminium sheet buyers:

Real-Time Prices: Daily updates on spot and contract prices across global regions.
Market News & Analysis: Expert commentary explaining price drivers, trends, and trade-flow impacts.
Forecasting: Anticipate market movements to optimize procurement strategies and cost savings.
Supply Chain Intelligence: Monitor plant operations, shutdowns, and logistical disruptions to mitigate supply risks.
Global Coverage: Analysts in Houston, Cologne, and New Delhi, with on-ground teams in over 50 major ports including Shanghai, Busan, Rotterdam, and Jebel Ali.
Sector Insights: Detailed demand and supply analysis by end-user industries, from automotive to construction.
With ChemAnalyst, procurement teams gain the foresight, clarity, and market understanding required to make informed purchasing decisions, optimize inventory, and navigate global aluminium sheet market complexities.

Conclusion

The aluminium sheet market continues to reflect the interplay of tariffs, logistics, energy costs, and sectoral demand variations. While North America contends with protectionist trade policies, APAC and MEA navigate freight-driven landed cost pressures, and Europe grapples with energy and carbon-related production costs. Across regions, buyers strategically adjust procurement to mitigate cost risks, while production and supply chain dynamics remain central to price movements. Looking forward, market participants must monitor tariffs, logistics, and sector-specific demand to optimize sourcing strategies and maintain competitive positioning. ChemAnalyst provides the data, forecasts, and supply-chain intelligence to navigate these complexities effectively.

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