Track Cold Rolled Coil Price Report Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) market experienced mixed trends during the third quarter of 2025, driven by divergent regional supply-demand dynamics, feedstock costs, and logistical factors. In North America, the CRC Price Index declined by 6.32% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting persistent oversupply and subdued demand from automotive and construction sectors. APAC, particularly Indonesia, saw a 4.93% increase in CRC prices, supported by robust export flows, infrastructure spending, and domestic inventory tightening. Europe, led by Germany, experienced a 7.66% decline in CRC prices due to oversupply, persistent import competition, and weak seasonal demand.

Global CRC price trends remain sensitive to production cost fluctuations, trade flows, and regional demand cycles. While North America and Europe contend with oversupply and cautious procurement, APAC is buoyed by infrastructural stimulus and export-driven dynamics. Forecasts suggest near-term stability in North America and Europe, conditional on restocking and order flow improvements, while APAC is likely to maintain firm pricing due to continued demand and feedstock pressures.

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Introduction

Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) is a critical flat steel product widely used across automotive, construction, appliance, and industrial manufacturing sectors. Its market dynamics are influenced by upstream Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) costs, production capacity, global trade flows, and regional consumption patterns. The third quarter of 2025 provides insights into how oversupply, procurement behavior, tariffs, and logistical challenges are shaping price trajectories in major markets across North America, APAC, and Europe.

This report analyzes historical quarterly trends, production cost structures, demand forecasts, and trade dynamics, offering buyers, traders, and market participants a comprehensive view of the CRC market.

Global Price Overview

During Q3 2025, CRC prices exhibited contrasting regional behaviors:

North America: Average price approximately USD 1,116/MT, down 6.32% QoQ due to oversupply, soft mill lists, and weak automotive/construction demand.
APAC (Indonesia): Average price approximately USD 553.33/MT, up 4.93% QoQ driven by strong export demand, domestic restocking, and feedstock pressures.
Europe (Germany): Average price approximately USD 719/MT, down 7.66% QoQ owing to import competition, weak demand, and seasonal shutdowns.
South America (Brazil): Average price approximately USD 617.33/MT, up 8.8% QoQ supported by quota tightening, BRL depreciation, and limited slab output.
These regional disparities underscore the influence of localized factors-such as tariffs, inventory positions, and logistics costs-on global CRC pricing.

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Detailed Regional Analysis

North America

Price and Market Dynamics (Q3 2025)
In the USA, the CRC Price Index fell by 6.32% quarter-over-quarter, with average regional prices near USD 1,116/MT. Spot prices weakened in tandem with softer mill lists, reflecting ample supply from high operating rates (~80%) and constrained demand from the automotive and construction sectors. Section 232 tariffs limited imports, but elevated service center inventories constrained domestic price recovery.

Drivers of Price Changes

Elevated mill throughput and shipments increased CRC availability, exerting downward pressure on the Price Index.
Service centers deferred restocking due to weak orders from key industries.
Stable feedstock costs and compressed lead times minimized cost-push inflation, keeping market volatility low.

Quarterly Review (Q2 and Q1 2025)

Q2 2025: CRC prices declined by 2.4% QoQ, impacted by weakening demand in automotive, HVAC, and home appliances. Elevated service center inventories further pressured spot prices.
Q1 2025: Prices rose by ~5% QoQ to USD 1,395/MT CFR Manzanillo in Mexico, driven by supply constraints, import restrictions, and strong industrial demand.

Production and Cost Insights

Production costs remained muted due to easing HRC feedstock prices.
Mill operating rates near 80% sustained ample supply, limiting price volatility.
Procurement Outlook
Buyers are likely to maintain cautious purchasing strategies, favoring shorter-term contracts and minimal stockpiling until industrial demand stabilizes.

APAC

Price and Market Dynamics (Q3 2025)
In Indonesia, the CRC Price Index rose by 4.93% QoQ, with average prices near USD 553.33/MT. Spot prices exhibited volatility, reflecting tightening domestic supply amid strong export flows. Infrastructure-driven demand and inventory management bolstered price levels.

Drivers of Price Changes

Tight domestic HRC availability and elevated feedstock costs supported CRC prices.
Chinese export flows increased Indonesian port inventories, while logistics delays and demurrage costs lifted landed costs.
Robust infrastructure demand prompted restocking, tightening near-term availability.

Quarterly Review (Q2 and Q1 2025)

Q2 2025: Prices dropped sharply by 18.3% QoQ due to oversupply, aggressive Chinese CRC pricing, and high port inventories.
Q1 2025: Prices declined 2.7% QoQ in China to USD 561/MT, impacted by disrupted logistics and weak sectoral demand.

Production and Cost Insights

Rising HRC feedstock costs drove higher production costs.
Major mill operating rates stayed high, with rerollers prioritizing exports over domestic supply.
Procurement Outlook
Short-term trading is expected to remain range-bound, while buyers focus on optimizing imports and managing conversion costs in light of fluctuating local availability.

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Europe

Price and Market Dynamics (Q3 2025)
In Germany, CRC prices fell by 7.66% QoQ to approximately USD 719/MT. Spot prices were stable as mills balanced shipments. Persistent import competition, service-center stock increases, and weak automotive demand contributed to price pressure. Energy and conversion charges lifted production costs, but these were insufficient to offset market softness.

Drivers of Price Changes

Ramp-up of European capacity and low-cost imports generated oversupply.
OEM summer shutdowns delayed restocking, limiting transactional demand.
Rising energy tariffs and conversion costs elevated mill offers despite weak demand.

Quarterly Review (Q2 and Q1 2025)

Q2 2025: Slight increase of 0.4% QoQ due to stable domestic mill orders and modest restocking from mid-sized manufacturers.
Q1 2025: Prices declined 1.3% QoQ to USD 818/MT, reflecting oversupply and subdued automotive/construction demand.

Production and Cost Insights

Energy costs and conversion charges rose, pushing production costs higher.
Major German mills operated scheduled rolling, exerting selective support on offers.
Procurement Outlook
Buyers are likely to maintain cautious procurement, monitoring import arrivals and energy cost volatility, with limited upside expected until seasonal restocking resumes.

South America

Price and Market Dynamics (Q3 2025)
In Brazil, CRC prices increased by 8.8% QoQ to USD 617.33/MT, driven by quota tightening, BRL depreciation, and limited slab availability. Port congestion and inventory drawdowns further constrained supply.

Drivers of Price Changes

Quota limits and lower slab output elevated import parity and spot premiums.
Export flows reduced local availability despite moderate domestic demand.
Service center stocks remained high, maintaining largely range-bound conditions.

Procurement Outlook

Buyers may face higher landed costs and should plan for selective procurement, especially in response to quota-imposed supply constraints.

This historical view highlights the volatility driven by supply-demand imbalances, import/export flows, currency fluctuations, and feedstock price pressures.

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Production and Cost Structure Insights

Feedstock Dependence: CRC production is highly sensitive to HRC costs. Easing HRC prices in North America and Q1 2025 APAC contributed to lower production costs, while rising feedstock in Indonesia pushed production costs higher.
Energy and Conversion Costs: In Europe, rising energy tariffs and conversion charges have elevated production costs despite weak demand.
Mill Operating Rates: Sustained operating rates in North America (~80%) and high APAC mill output maintained supply, contributing to price pressure or volatility depending on demand.

Procurement Behavior and Supply Conditions

North America: Service centers deferred restocking; procurement is cautious, favoring short-term contracts.
APAC: Restocking driven by infrastructure demand and export opportunities; buyers balance imports and local conversion costs.
Europe: Procurement is selective; buyers monitor import flows and energy cost volatility, waiting for seasonal demand recovery.
South America: Buyers face quota-driven constraints; procurement requires planning around import parity and port congestion.

Logistics and Trade-Flow Impacts

North America: Tariffs limited imports; logistics stable, supporting consistent supply.
APAC: Port congestion, demurrage, and currency volatility increased landed costs; export-oriented mills prioritized overseas markets.
Europe: Smooth logistics preserved import parity; seasonal OEM shutdowns delayed restocking.
South America: Santos port logistics supported flows, but quota caps and slab shortages maintained price pressure.

FAQs

Q1: Why did CRC prices fall in North America in Q3 2025?
A: Prices declined due to persistent oversupply, weak automotive and construction demand, stable feedstock costs, and deferred restocking by service centers.

Q2: What caused CRC prices to rise in APAC (Indonesia)?
A: Firming prices were driven by tight domestic HRC availability, elevated feedstock costs, export demand, infrastructure-driven restocking, and logistics delays.

Q3: How did European CRC prices behave in Q3 2025?
A: Prices fell due to oversupply, low-cost imports, weak automotive demand, and high energy/conversion costs, despite stable mill operating rates.

Q4: What role do tariffs and quotas play in regional CRC pricing?
A: Tariffs limit imports and influence domestic availability (North America), while quotas constrain supply and elevate import parity (South America).

Q5: How should buyers approach procurement in the current CRC market?
A: Buyers should adopt cautious, selective procurement strategies, balancing short-term contracts, import timing, inventory positions, and cost optimization.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers

ChemAnalyst offers unparalleled support for buyers navigating the global CRC market:

Real-Time Price Updates: Access continuously updated spot and indexed CRC prices.
Market Insights: Understand the underlying reasons behind price fluctuations, including supply-demand dynamics, feedstock trends, and logistics impacts.
Price Forecasts: Plan procurement strategies based on predictive price movements and market outlooks.
Supply-Chain Intelligence: Monitor mill operations, port congestion, and trade-flow disruptions to proactively manage procurement risks.
Expert Analysis: ChemAnalyst's team of chemical engineers and market experts deliver actionable insights from over 50 global trading ports, ensuring decisions are data-driven and timely.
By combining real-time data, analytical expertise, and market forecasts, ChemAnalyst empowers procurement teams to optimize buying strategies, control costs, and mitigate supply-chain disruptions.

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Conclusion

The global Cold Rolled Coil market remains regionally divergent in Q3 2025. North America and Europe face downward pressure from oversupply and subdued demand, while APAC markets show resilience due to infrastructure spending, export-driven dynamics, and domestic inventory tightening. Supply, feedstock costs, tariffs, and logistical factors remain critical drivers of price trends. Buyers are advised to maintain selective procurement strategies, monitor global trade flows, and leverage predictive analytics to navigate market volatility effectively. ChemAnalyst provides the tools, data, and insights necessary to make informed decisions in this complex and evolving CRC market.

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This release was published on openPR.