European Football Championship: May the best team win

It’s far easier for Tina Turner to belt out ‘Simply The Best’ than it is to decide which football team is indeed simply the best. This endless debate often revolves around FIFA’s monthly rankings of the best national sides.

If you take the February 2008 FIFA ranking as a yardstick, this is how the 16 UEFA Euro 2008TM qualifiers rank in the UEFA zone.

1 Italy: 1,484pts
2 Spain: 1,352
3 Germany: 1,281
4 Czech Republic: 1,244
5 France: 1,223
6 Portugal: 1,191
7 Netherlands: 1,179
8 Greece: 1,142
10 Croatia: 1,096
11 Romania: 1,060
13 Turkey: 927
15 Poland: 903
16 Russia: 890
18 Sweden: 877
26 Switzerland: 647
42 Austria: 377

The highest-ranked non-qualifiers, incidentally, are England (ninth with 1133 points), Scotland (12th, 990 points) and Bulgaria (14th, 919 points).

But how does this measure up against the Castrol Performance Index? By totalling up the CPI player points for each nation the 16 reshuffle and look like this:

1 Czech Republic: 16,492pts
2 Netherlands: 15,362
3 Italy: 15,801
4 Greece: 14,187
5 Romania: 13,269
6 Croatia: 13,264
7 Germany: 12,778
8 France: 11,174
9 Poland: 10,718
10 Sweden: 10,619
11 Turkey: 10,308
12 Spain: 9,229
13 Russia: 9,134
14 Switzerland: 9,025
15 Portugal: 7,858
16 Austria: 7,137

Drawing conclusions

The differences between the two lineups may look dramatic in places (Spanish and Portuguese fans are likely to favour FIFA's countdown) and that's because they are measuring quite different things. Where the FIFA rankings are based on team performances and results, the CPI measures how well individual players perform within their team, regardless of results.

The trouble with all this is, as the Liverpudlian comedian Jimmy Tarbuck once quipped, “Liverpool should win on paper but the game is played on grass.” The Castrol Index rewards the most effective players, that is, the ones who have the most impact in scoring or saving goals for their team. The Azzurri score well with in-form strikers Luca Toni and Antonio Di Natale, while The Netherlands benefit from having two excellent keepers in Edwin Van der Sar and Maarten Stekelenburg.

Beyond the numbers

But it doesn’t matter how you crunch these numbers or which index or rankings you use, some common themes remain.

1) Austria will need nerve, luck and some peak performances to impress in Group B.

2) The Czech Republic, after a disappointing World Cup in 2006, look like serious contenders. Coach Karel Bruckner has freshened up his team, has plenty of good young talent coming through, Petr Cech in goal and a decent draw (they won’t face Italy, France or the Netherlands until the final). The biggest threat in their half of the draw is Germany, and the Czechs split the points with them in qualifying.

3) Italy are probably the team to beat. Roberto Donadoni has not had an easy ride after taking over from Marcello Lippi, but he has steered the world champions through a difficult qualifying group and made Portugal look ordinary in their recent friendly. And, like the Czechs, they have the bonus of a world-class goalkeeper, Gianluigi Buffon.

4) The margin between many of the teams is so small it can easily be negated by a tactical wheeze, a moment of sublime skill or a bad day at the office.

For more news on the European Football Championship 2008 please visit http://www.castrolindex.com

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Press contact: Caroline Topping
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eMail: Caroline.topping@uk.bp.com

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This release was published on openPR.