Track Silicon Metal Price Report Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The Silicon Metal market experienced significant volatility across global regions during 2024-2025, influenced by supply-side disruptions, shifting production dynamics in China, fluctuations in downstream consumption, and logistics realignments across major trading corridors. Prices across North America, APAC, and Europe reflected a blend of structural cost pressures, evolving trade policies, and downstream sector behavior driven by solar, semiconductor, and aluminum alloy demand.

For the quarter ending September 2025, Silicon Metal markets showed diverging regional trends:

North America registered a 4.8% quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by tight imports and USITC tariff risks.
APAC saw a 2.57% rise due to Xinjiang production cuts, although increased national production in September moderated gains.
Europe posted a 7.78% decline, with subdued downstream procurement and elevated inventories weighing on prices.
Quarterly fluctuations earlier in June 2025 and March 2025, along with a comprehensive review of Q4 2024, highlight how Silicon Metal pricing has become increasingly sensitive to regional supply discipline, energy markets, industrial sentiment, and Chinese export availability.

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As buyers navigate tightening supply chains, periodic outages, and complex demand cycles, the procurement environment for 2025-2026 remains dynamic. With energy-linked cost pressures, freight volatility, and evolving trade investigations, Silicon Metal consumers must rely on real-time market intelligence to optimize purchase timing and manage supply risks.

Introduction

Silicon Metal-used extensively in aluminum alloys, silicones, solar PV materials, and semiconductor fabrication-is a commodity highly sensitive to energy prices, furnace utilization, raw material availability, and Chinese production cycles. Over the past year, Silicon Metal prices have moved in response to shifts in global trade flows, industrial slowdowns, cost inflation, and periodic supply disruptions.

This PR-style analysis presents a region-by-region breakdown of Silicon Metal prices, examining quarterly trends, reasons behind pricing changes, supply-demand shifts, cost drivers, logistics flows, and procurement implications. It also consolidates historical movements from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025 to offer a complete view of market dynamics.

Global Price Overview

Across the global market, Silicon Metal prices demonstrated:

Softness in oversupplied APAC markets
Cost-pushed firmness in North America due to logistics and tariff risk
Demand-driven declines in Europe, despite stable supply
Increasing reliance on Chinese output rhythms, including Xinjiang production cycles, new capacity additions, and inventory fluctuations
Energy and freight cost variations significantly influenced landed prices, particularly along China-US and China-Europe corridors. Despite seasonal demand from solar and aluminum, several regions continued to destock, especially in Europe and parts of Asia.

Overall, the global Silicon Metal market in 2024-2025 experienced alternating phases of tightness and surplus, highlighting the importance of real-time monitoring of production, logistic, and policy factors.

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Regional Analysis

North America

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

Silicon Metal Price Index increased 4.8% QoQ due to tight imports and domestic furnace utilization.
Average price: USD 3,028.67/MT CFR Illinois.
Export demand remained subdued, keeping spot prices stable, supported mainly by domestic consumption.
Energy and freight cost inflation pushed up CFR parity, contributing to firm pricing.
USITC probes and tariff risks constrained import availability.
Domestic furnace outages limited supply recovery.
Downstream demand remained healthy: aluminum alloys, silicones, and solar PV supported steady procurement.
Why did the price change in September 2025?

Rising Chinese output increased global availability, pressuring US landed prices.
Improved logistics reduced freight rates and improved import flows.
Construction-related slowdown tempered downstream offtake, creating temporary surplus.

Q2 2025 (Quarter Ending June 2025)

Silicon Metal Price Index rose 9.6% QoQ due to a blend of strong demand and cost escalations.
Seasonal demand from EV/PHEV, solar, and semiconductor sectors remained strong.
Early Q2 saw modest increases (+0.5%) driven by EV and semiconductor consumption.
Mid-quarter flooding in the Ohio and Mississippi valleys constrained supply, triggering force majeure and lifting spot prices by ~1.5%.
Late Q2 experienced freight spikes and slower imports from Brazil, Norway, and China.

Why did the price change in July 2025?

Prices declined slightly (~0.3%) due to improved trade flows and easing freight rates.
Downstream buyers restocked after Q2 tightness, stabilizing the index near USD 3.06/kg.

Q1 2025 (Quarter Ending March 2025)

Q1 prices averaged USD 2,751/MT CFR Illinois, still elevated due to lingering supply constraints.
Severe winter storms disrupted Gulf ports, tightening supply.
Asian import delays amplified shortages.
Strong demand from EV, solar, and semiconductors supported high spot prices.

Why did prices change in April 2025?

Marginal increases occurred due to sustained demand and residual logistical issues from Q1.

Q4 2024 Review

Prices dipped 0.4% QoQ to USD 2,469/MT.
Preemptive inventory buildup cushioned supply disruptions from global weather events.
Semiconductor and solar sectors remained firm, while automotive demand softened early but rebounded late.
Renewable energy policies supported consumption growth.

APAC

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

Silicon Metal Price Index rose 2.57% QoQ.
Quarterly average: USD 1,383.33/MT.
Xinjiang production cuts tightened supply early in Q3.

Demand from polysilicon and silicone sectors provided stability.
Production costs rose due to electrode and coking coal futures.
Volatility moderated as major producers resumed partial capacity.

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Why did the price change in September 2025?

National production increased as Xinjiang resumed output, easing tightness.
Social inventories rose, improving seller willingness to offer cargoes.
Downstream aluminum alloy buyers adopted cautious procurement.

Q2 2025 (Quarter Ending June 2025)

APAC Price Index fell 17.8% QoQ, driven by persistent oversupply.
Downstream purchasing remained weak, particularly in:
aluminum alloys, polysilicon, automotive

New capacity additions in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan increased supply.
Maintenance shutdowns in some provinces had minimal effect.
Why did the price change in July 2025?

Prices rebounded due to significant production cuts in Xinjiang in late June.
Futures strengthened, prompting buyers to re-enter the market.

Q1 2025 (Quarter Ending March 2025)

Prices closed at USD 1,459/MT FOB Shanghai, down 12% QoQ.
Weak demand and high inventories suppressed prices.
Major producing regions maintained high output, worsening oversupply.
Demand from polysilicon, semiconductor, and aluminum alloy sectors remained soft.

Why did prices change in April 2025?

Further decreases were seen due to downstream weakness and bloated inventories.

Q4 2024 Review

Prices fell 6.2% QoQ to USD 1,663/MT FOB Shanghai.
Early quarter stability gave way to end-quarter softness.
Downstream weakness in polysilicon, PV glass, and aluminum alloys continued.
Production cuts in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Sichuan stabilized markets temporarily.

Europe

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

Prices fell 7.78% QoQ, reflecting weak downstream demand.
Quarterly average: USD 1,729.67/MT CFR Hamburg.

Spot prices remained range-bound due to balanced imports and subdued procurement.

Carbon and freight costs limited deeper declines.
Automotive and PV industries continued destocking.

Why did the price change in September 2025?

Chinese restarts and Xinjiang cuts increased global availability.
Higher carbon compliance costs marginally supported offers.
Elevated inventories limited call-offs from buyers.

Q2 2025 (Quarter Ending June 2025)

Price Index dropped 20.2% QoQ, driven by oversupply and industrial slowdown.
Freight cost declines on Asia-Europe routes enabled cheaper imports.
Inventory levels remained high across European warehouses.
Weekly price drops of 1.3-3.5% occurred mid-quarter.

Why did prices change in July 2025?

The July decline stemmed from weak demand, low logistics costs, and oversupply from China and secondary suppliers.

Q1 2025 (Quarter Ending March 2025)

Average price: USD 2,191/MT CFR Hamburg, slightly above Q4 2024.
Energy costs were high, but demand from aluminum alloys and semiconductors was weak.
Imports from Norway, France, China, and Brazil remained steady.

Why did prices change in April 2025?

Mild decreases were noted due to sluggish downstream activity and broader economic softness.

Q4 2024 Review

Prices declined 0.6% QoQ to USD 2,370/MT CFR Hamburg.
Stable imports, subdued demand, and lower freight rates influenced pricing.
Automotive weakness and PV sector volatility restrained consumption.

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Production and Cost Structure Trends

Across all regions, production cost structures were influenced by:

Energy price volatility
Electrode and reductant input costs
Carbon compliance obligations (Europe)
Freight market fluctuations
Furnace utilization efficiency
Regional electricity availability, especially hydro-dependent regions (Yunnan, Sichuan, Iceland)
APAC production remains the cost leader due to scale and resource proximity, while Europe faces the steepest structural costs due to carbon obligations.

Procurement Behavior and Outlook

Key Procurement Trends

Just-in-time procurement rising in Europe and parts of Asia
Restocking cycles following production cuts in APAC
Forward buying in North America due to tariff risks
Cautious inventory management amidst macroeconomic uncertainty

2025-2026 Outlook

North America: Range-bound to firm due to trade cases and domestic constraints.
APAC: Likely volatile, depending on Xinjiang output discipline.
Europe: Expected to remain soft, with limited recovery unless industrial demand rebounds.
Solar PV and semiconductor sector growth could lend medium-term upside globally.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why are Silicon Metal prices so sensitive to Chinese production?
China accounts for the majority of global Silicon Metal supply. Production shifts in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan immediately affect global inventories and price direction.

What drives Silicon Metal production costs the most?
Energy, reductant inputs (coal, silica), electrodes, carbon compliance costs, and furnace utilization are the main cost drivers.

Which downstream sectors influence Silicon Metal demand?
Key sectors include:

Aluminum alloys
Solar PV (polysilicon and wafer production)
Electronics and semiconductors
Silicone chemicals
Automotive (including EV)
Will Silicon Metal prices increase in 2026?
Potentially yes, if:

Chinese production cuts persist
Solar PV demand accelerates
Freight rates rise
However, oversupply risks remain in APAC.
Which region faces the highest supply risk?
North America, due to tariff investigations and limited domestic producers.

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How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers with Real-Time Market Intelligence

ChemAnalyst provides buyers, procurement teams, and strategy leaders with unmatched transparency into Silicon Metal markets, offering:

Real-time price updates across 450+ commodities
Weekly and monthly price trend reports
Accurate price drivers explaining exact reasons for market movements
Short-term and long-term price forecasts
Plant shutdown tracking to assess supply risk
Trade-flow data and inventory insights
Expert analysis by chemical engineers, economists, and supply chain specialists

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This release was published on openPR.