Track Graphite Price Report Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global graphite market in 2024-2025 experienced significant shifts driven by changes in supply availability, geopolitical policy interventions, input cost volatility, and the evolving demand landscape in key downstream sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage systems, specialty steel, and high-tech manufacturing. While graphite remains a strategic mineral at the heart of modern electrification and renewable energy transitions, the market's quarterly performance demonstrates a complex interplay of oversupply, inventory cycles, tariff disruptions, and regional restocking patterns.

For the Quarter Ending September 2025, North America recorded a 2.7% decline in its Graphite Price Index, APAC registered a deeper 5.254% quarter-on-quarter fall, while Europe showed resilience with a slight 0.688% increase reflecting supply tightness. Earlier quarters also displayed notable volatility: Q2 2025 saw continued oversupply in North America and APAC, moderated by anti-dumping actions, logistics shifts, and inventory realignments. Meanwhile, Q1 2025 was marked by fluctuations tied to China's export controls, energy costs, and seasonal production patterns.

Across regions, the medium-term Graphite Price Forecast shows potential for moderate recovery as EV-related demand stabilizes, inventories normalize, and tariff-driven sourcing diversification reshapes global trade flows. Rising energy costs, shipment delays, and structural supply constraints-especially in Europe-continue to influence cost trends and procurement decisions.

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Introduction

Graphite-both natural and synthetic-plays a foundational role in modern industrial ecosystems. As the primary material for lithium-ion battery anodes and a critical component in refractories, steelmaking, lubricants, fuel cells, and electronics, graphite has transitioned from a traditional industrial mineral to a strategic resource tied directly to decarbonization and energy transition strategies worldwide.

Global graphite markets have navigated an era of significant fluctuations from 2024 to 2025. Trade restrictions, oversupply cycles in China, geopolitical tensions, the rise of alternative suppliers, and macroeconomic uncertainties have collectively shaped pricing dynamics. At the same time, technological developments, investment in gigafactories, and the push for diversified supply chains continue to strengthen long-term demand fundamentals.

This article provides a detailed and structured analysis of price movements, market drivers, and procurement realities across major regions-North America, APAC, and Europe-while integrating historical context and forward-looking insights to help buyers, manufacturers, and policymakers navigate the evolving graphite landscape.

Global Price Overview

The global graphite market in 2024-2025 exhibited a mixed performance. While long-term demand remains anchored in EV battery manufacturing and energy storage systems, short-term pricing trends were dominated by:

Oversupply across China and APAC
Trade policy disruptions (anti-dumping duties, export controls)
High energy and shipping costs affecting production margins
Seasonal restocking and inventory realignments
Muted demand from steelmaking, industrial, and construction sectors
Economic slowdowns across key manufacturing economies
Globally, prices generally trended downward in late 2024 and early 2025, followed by mixed but stabilizing patterns in mid-2025 as new measures-particularly tariffs and procurement shifts-began reshaping trade flows.

By Q3 2025, global graphite prices displayed:

Declines in APAC and North America due to oversupply and cautious procurement
Slight recovery in Europe due to supply tightness and rising energy costs
Rangebound behavior across major hubs driven by elevated inventories
These diverging regional narratives illustrate the increasingly fragmented graphite trade ecosystem.

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Regional Analysis: Detailed Price and Market Dynamics

North America

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

North America recorded a 2.7% quarter-on-quarter fall in the Graphite Price Index. The average price settled around USD 796.33/MT, reflecting subdued purchasing activity and elevated inventories.

Key Drivers

Tariffs reduced Chinese import flows, tightening spot availability but not enough to support price recovery.
Higher energy and freight costs drove up production and landed costs.
Robust EV and battery demand absorbed inventory, but buyers remained cautious as policy debates unfolded.
Inventory overhang from Q2 limited spot buying.
Supply disruptions and shifts to alternative origins supported some price stability in specific grades.

Why did Graphite prices change in September 2025?

U.S. tariff actions prompted supply reassessments and short-term tightness.
Rising energy and logistics costs inflated cost structures.
Demand from EV manufacturing increased, while cautious procurement delayed long-term contracting.

Q2 2025 (Quarter Ending June 2025)

The North American Graphite Price Index dropped 16.26% quarter-on-quarter, driven by oversupply from China, Mozambique, and Brazil outpacing consumption.

Notable Trends

Raw material cost declines (especially coke) offered slight relief.
Demand dip: U.S. EV sales fell 5%; steel output slipped 0.4%.
Stable logistics prevented any price-supportive disruption.
Oversupply conditions kept inventories elevated.
Why did prices rise in July 2025 despite Q2 declines?

The U.S. Commerce Department announced 93.5% anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite, prompting buyers to front-load purchases, tightening import supply and increasing July prices.

Q1 2025 (Quarter Ending March 2025)

Graphite prices fell 5.5% QoQ, closing at USD 912/MT CFR Houston for graphite flakes.

Quarter Highlights

Early-quarter demand improved with manufacturing activity.
Mid-quarter: China's export restrictions tightened supply.
Late-quarter: EV and steel sector slowdown pushed prices downward.
Freight rate reductions contributed to bearish sentiment.
Q4 2024 (Quarter Ending December 2024)

North American graphite flake prices ended at USD 1013/MT CFR Houston.

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Market Themes

Continued reliance on China, Madagascar, and Mozambique.
Mixed EV sector demand amid global disruptions.
Construction sector slowdown reduced industrial consumption.
U.S. investment in alternative graphite supply chains strengthened long-term resilience.

APAC (Asia Pacific)

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

APAC recorded a 5.254% QoQ decline in the Graphite Price Index, with average prices at USD 547/MT, driven by oversupply and muted downstream activity.

Key Drivers

Excess Chinese production created elevated inventories.
Lower petroleum coke and feedstock prices reduced production costs.
Weak export demand and slow domestic consumption pressured prices.
Trade policy uncertainty and seasonal logistics issues delayed shipments.

Why did Graphite prices change in September 2025?

Surplus supply reduced spot purchasing.
Lower costs squeezed margins and softened seller offers.
Export and logistics disruptions weakened buyer confidence.

Q2 2025 (Quarter Ending June 2025)

APAC prices fell 10.35% QoQ, driven by abundant inventories and lackluster demand.

Market Drivers

Lower electricity and feedstock costs early in the quarter.
Margins narrowed as price competition intensified.
Cautious procurement across automotive and energy storage.
Elevated inventories across APAC ports.

Why did Graphite prices rise in July 2025?

Stabilization and forecasted increases in Chinese ultra-high-power graphite electrode prices lifted wider APAC sentiment.

Q1 2025 (Quarter Ending March 2025)

Prices declined 3.9% QoQ, closing at USD 623/MT FOB Shanghai.

Key Observations

Initial rise supported by EV sector demand.
Lunar New Year logistics disruptions tightened mid-quarter availability.
Oversupply returned strongly by quarter-end.
Q4 2024 (Quarter Ending December 2024)

APAC recorded a 3% quarterly decline, ending at USD 656/MT FOB Shanghai.

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Market Context

Stable production from Madagascar and Brazil supported supply.
Mixed demand from construction and automotive.
Export controls and geopolitical tensions reduced overseas shipments.
Inventory optimization by battery producers moderated consumption.
Europe

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

Europe showed resilience, with the Graphite Price Index rising 0.688% QoQ. Average prices reached USD 731.67/MT, supported by supply tightness and demand recovery.

Influencing Factors

Imports were disrupted, tightening supply.
Automotive electrification boosted procurement.
Rising energy costs increased production expenses.
Inventory overhang from low-cost Chinese imports limited upward movement.
Neutral investor sentiment kept volumes steady.

Why did Graphite prices change in September 2025?

Import disruptions and localized inefficiencies constrained supply.
Demand surged from battery manufacturing.
Higher energy and logistics costs restricted discounts.

Q2 2025 (Quarter Ending June 2025)

Europe posted an 8.21% QoQ decline amid persistent oversupply.

Key Trends

Excess flake and spherical graphite inventories dominated the market.
Freight costs fell sharply, easing landed costs.
Automotive and steel sectors showed softness.
Data center and electronics demand remained steady but insufficient.

Why did prices rise in July 2025?

The EU extended anti-dumping measures on Chinese artificial graphite imports, tightening supply and lifting prices.

Q1 2025 (Quarter Ending March 2025)

Prices declined 2.8% QoQ, settling at USD 785/MT Ex Hamburg.

Highlights

High inventories and oversupply persisted.
Import dependence exposed Europe to disruptions in China and Africa.
BEV demand supported fundamentals but relied on existing stockpiles.
Industrial demand remained stable but unspectacular.

Q4 2024 (Quarter Ending December 2024)

German prices ended at USD 797/MT.

Q4 Market Conditions

Domestic availability and low freight supported declines.
BEV registrations fell sharply; demand weakened.
Cost reductions in factory inputs signaled economic malaise.
Shift toward synthetic graphite further impacted natural graphite prices.
Production & Cost Structure Insights

Across all regions, production costs in 2024-2025 were shaped by:

Key Cost Drivers

Energy tariffs (notably high in Europe and North America)
Feedstock prices (petroleum coke, needle coke)
Freight rates, which declined overall but surged temporarily during disruptions
Tariffs and anti-dumping duties affecting landed costs
Operational restarts and capacity expansions in China
Seasonal production outages in APAC
Lower feedstock prices in APAC reduced global costs, while energy price spikes in Europe tightened margins.

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Procurement Behavior and Supply Dynamics

Procurement teams worldwide adjusted strategies based on:

Tariff impacts reshaping sourcing choices
Inventory management to avoid carrying excess stock
"Just-in-time" purchasing in Europe and North America
Cautious contracting amid policy and economic uncertainty
Growing preference for diversified supply chains beyond China
Strong EV and battery demand, particularly in North America and Europe
Spot market dependence in APAC due to ongoing oversupply
Supply-chain tightness in Europe contrasted sharply with APAC's surplus-heavy environment.

Procurement Outlook

The graphite procurement outlook into late 2025 and 2026 is shaped by:

Short-Term Outlook

Prices likely remain rangebound due to inventory overhang.
Tariff policies may continue to influence sourcing decisions.
EV demand remains the primary stabilizing force.
Europe may face persistent supply constraints.
Medium- to Long-Term Outlook

Structural deficits expected as global EV deployments surge.
Supply diversification efforts (Africa, North America) will gain ground.
Artificial graphite demand will grow in parallel with natural graphite.
Energy storage and high-tech manufacturing will intensify competition for supply.

FAQ: Graphite Price Trend & Forecast:-

Why are graphite prices volatile across regions?
Volatility is driven by oversupply in APAC, trade disruptions in North America, energy costs in Europe, and uneven downstream demand.

What is the outlook for graphite prices in late 2025?
Moderate recovery is expected as inventories normalize and EV sector restocking picks up.

How are tariffs affecting graphite prices?
Tariffs on Chinese graphite are shifting procurement to alternative suppliers and tightening supply in major markets.

Which sectors are driving graphite demand?
EV batteries, energy storage systems, refractories, lubricants, and specialty steel manufacturing.

What is influencing production costs?
Energy tariffs, feedstock prices, freight rates, and export control policies.

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Cost and margin models for graphite production
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This release was published on openPR.