Track Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) Price Trend and Forecast Report

Comprehensive Global and Regional Market Analysis with Historical Review (2024-2025)

Executive Summary

The global Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market has experienced significant volatility from late 2024 through Q3 2025, shaped by persistent oversupply, weak downstream PVC demand, fluctuating feedstock dynamics, and shifting trade flows across major producing and consuming regions. The EDC Price Index has softened across nearly all markets, with steep quarter-over-quarter declines observed in the U.S., Europe, China, Japan, the Middle East, and South America. Price trends have been heavily influenced by fragile construction activity, muted automotive demand, logistical constraints, fluctuating ethylene feedstock costs, and elevated inventory levels across global supply chains.

As of Q3 2025, EDC prices remain under pressure, with North America reporting a 16.75% quarter-on-quarter decline, APAC (Japan) down 11.79%, and Europe (Spain) falling 15.8%. Market weakness is closely tied to the extended downturn in global PVC production, which remains the dominant consumption sector for EDC. Across regions, buyers adopted cautious procurement strategies, while producers navigated margin compression, declining export opportunities, and rising freight costs.

Despite ongoing market softness, some regions-particularly Asia and Europe-are positioned for mild seasonal improvement depending on PVC demand recovery, ethylene price stability, and potential supply-side curtailments. Nonetheless, forecasts for Q4 2025 suggest range-bound to mildly bearish conditions, unless construction and export markets improve significantly.

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Introduction

Ethylene Dichloride (EDC), a key intermediate primarily used in the production of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and subsequently polyvinyl chloride (PVC), is among the most strategically vital chlor-alkali derivatives in global industrial markets. Price movements in the EDC market provide an essential barometer for downstream PVC demand, construction activity, economic sentiment, and petrochemical feedstock dynamics.

From Q4 2024 through Q3 2025, the global EDC market traversed a challenging landscape marked by supply surpluses, strained trade flows, limited downstream offtake, and fluctuating feedstock ethylene costs. These dynamics contributed to sustained price softness across the U.S., Europe, the Middle East, APAC markets, and South America.

This report delivers a comprehensive, structured examination of EDC pricing trends and provides deep visibility into the market's evolving fundamentals across key global regions. Through detailed quarterly analysis, cost assessments, procurement insights, and forward-looking expectations, this report equips stakeholders with precise intelligence for navigating volatile conditions.

Global Price Overview

Globally, EDC prices have trended downward across the past four quarters, predominantly due to weak downstream PVC demand, rising inventories, steady plant operating rates, and competitive import pressures. Across all regions, buyers adopted conservative procurement practices, while producers struggled to balance operating margins amid declining price realizations.

Key global themes include:

Weak PVC Demand Across Regions

PVC demand-especially from the construction sector-has remained persistently subdued across the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, and South America. This directly reduced EDC consumption and led to significant supply overhangs.

Ethylene Feedstock Price Volatility

Weak crude and ethylene prices supported lower EDC production costs through most quarters, though regional dynamics varied. In the U.S. and Europe, falling ethylene values eased production costs in Q2 and Q3 2025, supporting EDC margins despite declining prices. In contrast, APAC saw occasional cost upticks tied to regional feedstock tightness.

Elevated Inventories and High Operating Rates

Producers across major regions ran plants at steady rates, contributing to inventory accumulation. Even intermittent curtailments failed to offset oversupply.

Logistics Constraints and Rising Freight Costs

Seasonal freight pressures, port congestion (especially in Brazil), and increased war-risk premiums in the Middle East influenced delivered costs and trade-flow decisions.

Weak Export Opportunities

Export competition intensified as U.S., Asian, and Middle Eastern cargoes converged into common markets, compressing global prices.

Overall, global conditions point to continued price stagnation unless structural PVC demand improves or producers reduce operating rates meaningfully.

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Regional Analysis

North America

Q3 2025 Overview (Quarter Ending September 2025)

North America saw one of the steepest declines globally, with the U.S. EDC Price Index falling 16.75% QoQ. The average price for Q3 closed near USD 106/MT (USGC deliveries).

Key drivers included:

Persistent weakness in PVC demand
Elevated inventories from earlier high operating rates
Moderate exports and reduced merchant activity
Lower ethylene feedstock costs, easing production expenses
Logistics constraints that modestly increased delivered costs
Despite low demand, merchant supply withdrawals in September temporarily tightened prompt availability, stabilizing prices toward quarter-end.

Why Did EDC Prices Change in September 2025?

Weak PVC offtake drove inventory build-ups, pulling the Price Index lower.
Soft export activity restricted opportunities to clear surplus volumes.
Ethylene costs eased, supporting margins but failing to generate price recovery.
Seasonal freight tightness increased delivery costs without supporting demand.
Q2 2025 Review (Quarter Ending June 2025)

EDC spot prices collapsed by 32.5% QoQ, settling at USD 94/MT FOB USGC, primarily due to deep oversupply and weak global PVC demand. Inventories reached multi-quarter highs, and aggressive export competition from Asia and the Middle East intensified downward pressure.

Spot activity remained muted, falling sharply from USD 155/MT in April to USD 85/MT in early June. Production costs were stable but margins deteriorated as prices fell faster than input costs.

Forecasts for Q3 at the time were already bearish, and the actual Q3 performance validated those expectations.

Q1 2025 Review

Q1 was mixed, beginning stable but turning bearish due to:

Weak construction demand
Harsh winter disruptions to logistics
Falling ethylene prices
Limited export activity
Rising mortgage rates reducing PVC consumption

Q1 ended with slight stabilization, but bearish undertones persisted.

Q4 2024 Review

North America's EDC market declined 3.0% QoQ, driven by:

Weak construction-related PVC demand
Economic uncertainty from inflation and high interest rates
Reduced builder confidence and project slowdowns
Stable supply but subdued procurement

APAC (Japan & China)

Q3 2025 Overview (Japan)

Japan's Price Index dropped 11.79% QoQ, landing around USD 192/MT CFR Nagoya. While supply was balanced, PVC sector weakness and rising inventories pressured prices.

Key drivers:

High import arrivals from Korea and China
Soft PVC demand from automotive and construction slowdown
Mildly firmer ethylene feedstock costs
Stable logistics but elevated coastal inventories
Despite intermittent maintenance by regional producers, alternative sourcing prevented major tightness.

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Why Did EDC Prices Change in September 2025 (APAC)?

Heavy import inflows increased supply pressure.
Weak downstream offtake, especially from automotive and construction.
Slight feedstock cost increases prevented deeper price drops.

Q2 2025 Review (China)

China's Price Index fell 18.9% QoQ, with spot prices closing at USD 234/MT FOB Shanghai.

Market dynamics included:

High availability and muted PVC procurement
Early-quarter volatility, then stability in June
Stable production from integrated plants
Weak export opportunities
Softening ethylene costs stabilizing production expenses

Q1 2025 Review (Japan)

Q1 remained mostly steady until late February, then turned bearish due to:

Construction labor shortage and project delays
Weak PVC demand
Adequate imports from South Korea
Cautious procurement strategies
Automotive demand provided intermittent support but wasn't enough to offset overall softness.

Q4 2024 Review

APAC experienced a sharp 11.4% QoQ decline driven by:

Weak construction and automotive demand
Sluggish downstream PVC production
Yen depreciation and inflationary concerns
Ample supply and reduced export orders
Europe

Q3 2025 Overview (Spain)

Europe's EDC Price Index fell 15.8% QoQ to an average of USD 163.33/MT with oversupply and weak PVC demand driving the downturn.

Key factors:

Elevated inventories
Limited export opportunities
Lower ethylene feedstock costs
Steady operating rates despite weak demand
Occasional logistical disruptions
Price sentiment remained bearish although limited curtailments occasionally tightened spot availability.

Why Did EDC Prices Change in September 2025 (Europe)?

Persistent oversupply and inventory overhang
Weak construction sector purchasing
Lower production costs but limited export absorption
Sellers offering discounts to clear stocks
Q2 2025 Review (Germany)

Germany's Price Index dropped 21.4% QoQ, settling at USD 140/MT FD Hamburg.

Market conditions included:

Weak construction and PVC offtake
High inventories due to steady production
Increased competition from U.S. and Asian imports
Declining VCM and ethylene margins
Weak export demand
Q1 2025 Review

Q1 saw:

Early stability, followed by price weakness
Poor construction and automotive sector performance
High inventories outpacing demand
Downward ethylene movement pushing cost reductions
Q4 2024 Review

Europe experienced a rare slight 1% QoQ increase, supported by:

Automotive sector recovery
Rising crude prices
Stable manufacturing sentiment
However, this upside was limited by a weak construction sector and economic uncertainty.

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Production and Cost Structure Insights

Across regions, EDC production costs were influenced largely by:

Feedstock Ethylene Prices

Major declines in the U.S. and Europe reduced production costs.
APAC experienced intermittent increases but generally stable trends.
Chlorine Availability

While occasional tightness appeared, chlorine markets were mostly balanced, preventing major cost spikes.

Energy and Logistics Costs

Seasonal freight pressures and rising energy components affected landed costs, particularly in North America and Brazil.

Operating Efficiency

Most regions maintained high operating rates, contributing to surplus supply and lower price realizations.

Procurement Behavior and Outlook

Key Procurement Trends (2024-2025)

Buyers adopted cautious, short-term procurement.
Inventory liquidation was prioritized over forward contracting.
PVC producers restricted run rates, reducing EDC intake.
Importers sought lowest-cost origins, intensifying competition.
Procurement Outlook

Procurement sentiment remains conservative entering Q4 2025.
Buyers are expected to avoid large commitments unless:
PVC demand improves
Producers enforce supply rationalization
Ethylene feedstock markets tighten meaningfully
Forecasts suggest range-bound to mildly bearish pricing, with regional variation depending on construction and automotive sector performance.

FAQ Section

Why are global EDC prices declining across major regions?
Weak PVC demand, persistent oversupply, steady plant operations, and competitive global imports have compressed prices worldwide.

What role does ethylene feedstock play in EDC pricing?
Ethylene is a primary input for EDC production. Declining ethylene prices reduce production costs and pressure EDC prices downward.

Why is the construction sector so important for EDC demand?
Construction drives PVC consumption, and PVC accounts for the majority of EDC demand. Weak construction directly lowers EDC offtake.

Which regions are seeing the steepest EDC price declines?
North America and Europe reported some of the sharpest declines, followed by China and Japan in APAC.

When is EDC pricing expected to recover?
Meaningful recovery depends on:

Rebound in construction and PVC demand
Reduced production rates
Improved export opportunities
Moderate improvement may appear seasonally, but structural pressure remains.

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How ChemAnalyst Supports Market Participants

ChemAnalyst delivers unmatched market intelligence to help procurement teams, analysts, and manufacturers navigate the highly volatile EDC market. With real-time price updates, expert-backed analysis, and global supply-chain visibility, ChemAnalyst provides:

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Access continuously updated EDC pricing across all major regions.

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Understand cost trends, demand cycles, and market drivers.

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Predict future EDC pricing with high confidence.

✔ Plant Outage & Supply Disruption Monitoring

Stay ahead of shutdowns that impact availability and trade flows.

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Real shipment, logistics, and trade-flow insights unavailable anywhere else.

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Receive deep technical insights into production economics and market fundamentals.

ChemAnalyst empowers procurement teams to time their purchases effectively, optimize costs, mitigate supply risks, and make data-driven decisions in fast-changing global markets.

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