Track Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) Price Index Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market experienced a complex pricing landscape from late 2024 through 2025, shaped by persistent demand fluctuations, evolving supply conditions, logistics challenges, and shifts in feedstock cost dynamics. Across major regions-including North America, APAC, Europe, MEA, and South America-VAM prices reflected the interplay of weak to moderate downstream activity, cautious procurement behavior, stable yet occasionally pressured cost structures, and episodic disruptions in logistics and trade flows.

For the quarter ending September 2025, markets largely demonstrated a mixed-to-stable trend: North America saw modest recovery driven by balanced supply; APAC sustained steady but competitive pricing; and Europe managed equilibrium amid logistical challenges. Earlier quarters reveal softer fundamentals, particularly in Q2 2025, where weakening demand, robust inventories, and muted export flows pressured prices. Meanwhile Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 reflect deeper structural constraints such as high interest rates, energy volatility, oversupply in select regions, and lingering economic uncertainties.

Looking ahead, VAM prices remain poised for subdued-to-neutral trading across most regions, supported by steady feedstock costs, conservative procurement, and cautious restocking cycles. The medium-term outlook reflects ongoing vulnerability to energy markets, global geopolitical events, regional construction activity, and supply chain fluidity.

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Introduction

Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) plays a key role across adhesives, coatings, paints, packaging, construction, EVA, and polyvinyl acetate (PVAc) markets. Its pricing trajectory reflects interdependent market dynamics, including feedstock availability (ethylene, acetic acid), production economics, import/export competitiveness, and downstream sector performance.

The period from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025 demonstrated how cyclical factors-seasonal demand, geopolitical tensions, manufacturing activity, and logistics readiness-shape market direction. Understanding these trends is vital for procurement teams seeking to optimize cost positions, manage supply risks, and align with evolving production and inventory constraints.

Global Price Overview

Global VAM prices across 2024-2025 were marked by multi-quarter fluctuations influenced by:

Sluggish demand in paints, coatings, adhesives, and construction
Balanced-to-ample supply availability depending on region
Steady but occasionally pressured feedstock costs, especially ethylene and acetic acid
Logistics bottlenecks at major global ports
Weak exports due to oversupply in China and muted global trade
Soft procurement cycles, with buyers shifting to conservative restocking strategies
Global geopolitical disruptions, notably in the Red Sea and Gulf regions
Economic pressures, including high interest rates and manufacturing contractions
By late 2025, VAM markets showed cautious stabilization, though far from entering a bullish phase. Most regions anticipate range-bound movement heading into early 2026.

Regional Analysis

North America
Q3 2025: Price Recovery Amid Balanced Demand and Supply

For the quarter ending September 2025, the VAM Price Index in the U.S. increased 3.42% QoQ, supported by:

Consistent adhesives and packaging demand
Balanced domestic supply
Slight restocking from converters
Renewed but moderate export activity
Average pricing settled at USD 966.33/MT, reflecting multi-week highs in VAM spot activity.

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Key Drivers in September 2025:

Modest restocking and stable export flows
Higher feedstock costs from ethylene and acetic acid
Logistics disruptions from seasonal weather
Despite these pressures, the North American market remained structurally balanced, with supply discipline preventing major volatility.

Q2 2025: Persistent Weakness and Price Decline

In Q2 2025, the region saw a steep decline, with prices falling from USD 990/MT in June to USD 940/MT in July (FOB USGC). Drivers included:

Weak construction, packaging, and adhesive demand
Lack of export arbitrage opportunities
Ample spot availability
Muted procurement as buyers draw down inventories
Feedstock ethylene softened, pushing VAM production costs lower and further pressuring margins. Q3 forecasts during Q2 aligned with neutral-to-weak expectations.

Q1 2025: Structural Weakness

North American VAM markets experienced a declining trend throughout Q1, influenced by:

Weak demand in paints, coatings, adhesives
High interest rates restraining construction activity
Stable but controlled supply
Port-side logistical issues limiting trade flow
Weak export interest for EVA production
Despite attempted price increases, producers saw limited success due to persistent bearish fundamentals.

Q4 2024: Downward Price Trajectory

Late 2024 saw a generally bearish trend as:

Adhesive, coating, and packaging demand weakened
U.S. exports declined
Oversupply in acetic acid markets pressured pricing
High interest rates and macro uncertainty curbed consumption
Even though hurricanes temporarily lifted feedstock pricing, the effect was short-lived.

APAC

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Q3 2025: Steady Pricing with Light Competitive Pressure

Japan recorded a 0.82% price increase in Q3 2025, supported by tight supplies and stable demand. Average VAM pricing stood at USD 816.67/MT.

Key influences:

Balanced feedstock cost structure
Modest restocking
Controlled export flows
Competitive offers from regional suppliers
September 2025 price drivers included supply adjustments, plant restarts, logistics costs, and currency fluctuations.

Q2 2025: Range-Bound Stability

Prices remained around USD 910/MT CFR Singapore, reflecting:

Mixed regional demand
Aggressive Chinese export pricing
High inventories across Southeast Asia
Competitive supply landscape
Soft procurement behavior
Production cost relief from lower acetic acid improved margins but did not lift VAM prices.

Q1 2025: Persistent Downtrend

APAC faced:

Weak downstream demand
Oversupply and inventory overhang
Seasonal slowdown during holidays
Uncertain construction sector activity
Higher acetic acid costs earlier in the quarter, but insufficient to support prices
Despite some production alignment, bearish momentum continued.

Q4 2024: A Quarter of Sharp Fluctuations

Q4 in APAC saw initial stability, then declines from oversupply and weak demand, and finally minor recovery in December due to:

Year-end buying

Reduced production from select manufacturers
Early-month EVA upticks
Even so, prices remained under pressure by quarter-end.

Europe

Q3 2025: Narrow-Band Movement Despite Logistics Issues

Germany witnessed a 2.86% rise in the VAM Price Index, with quarter averages at USD 1165/MT.
Market behavior reflected:

Balanced regional supply
Port congestion (Rhine, Hamburg) limiting spot availability
Steady adhesives and packaging demand
Flat feedstock cost environment
September prices were supported by U.S. import stability despite weak domestic demand.

Q2 2025: Mild Softening

Europe's VAM Price Index fell 1.02%, settling at USD 1150/MT FD Rotterdam.
Contributing factors:

Low industrial activity
Strong import flows from Asia
Weak spot procurement
High inventory levels
Arising acetic acid costs late in the quarter hinted at margin tightening for Q3.

Q1 2025: Stable but Subdued Market

Europe demonstrated:

Narrow price fluctuations
Weak demand from paints, adhesives, construction
Steady import flows, especially from the U.S.
Buyer caution and reduced spot purchases
Feedstock acetic acid softened, aligning with a generally neutral price environment.

Q4 2024: Bearish Market Driven by Weak Consumption

Key contributors included:

Downstream slowdown, especially in coatings and adhesives
Cautious procurement
Minimal impact from U.S. disruptions
Higher energy costs
Weak Latin American demand
The market maintained its downward trajectory through the quarter.

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Historical Quarterly Review (Q4 2024 - Q3 2025)

Overall Themes Across Quarters:

Q4 2024: Broad weakness due to demand contraction and oversupply
Q1 2025: Deeply subdued industrial activity and fragile global sentiment
Q2 2025: Stabilization in some regions, but broad softness persisted
Q3 2025: Mild recovery signals but no strong upward rally
The cumulative trend across these quarters reflects a structurally cautious VAM global market environment.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Feedstock Costs

VAM production depends principally on:

Acetic acid
Ethylene
Catalyst systems
Energy inputs
Cost trends across regions:

Acetic acid costs fluctuated with energy markets and plant operations
Ethylene saw marginal upward pressure in Q3 2025
Energy remained relatively stable in APAC and Europe
MEA benefited from competitive feedstock availability
Operating Efficiency

Producers adjusted operating rates to manage:

Oversupply
Inventory build-up
Weak downstream pull
Maintenance shutdowns in MEA and APAC influenced temporary tightness but did not define long-term trends.

Procurement Behavior Trends

Across all regions, procurement teams showed:

Cautious restocking strategies
Preference for short-term contracts
Prioritization of inventory drawdown
Increased sensitivity to freight and logistical delays
Tight scrutiny over feedstock-linked pricing models
These behaviors anchor price stability but limit sharp upward movements.

Outlook and Forecast

Global VAM prices are expected to remain:

Range-bound to neutral in the near term
Influenced by modest feedstock cost pressure
Sensitive to construction and adhesive sector recovery
Impacted by global logistics, especially Red Sea and European port constraints
Moderately supported by supply discipline
The medium-term outlook hinges on broader macroeconomic recovery and stabilization in industrial output.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why did VAM prices rise in North America in September 2025?
Prices rose due to balanced supply, modest restocking, export stability, and persistent feedstock cost pressure.

Why were APAC VAM prices stable in Q3 2025?
Steady feedstock conditions, controlled exports, and plant restarts contributed to stable but competitive pricing.

What caused European VAM prices to move within a narrow band?
Port congestion limited downside movement, while weak demand prevented any sharp rise.

How did logistics influence VAM prices globally?
Delays in ports (EU), Red Sea tensions (MEA), and variable freight costs impacted spot availability and trade flows.

What is the procurement outlook?
Buyers are expected to continue conservative restocking, focusing on inventory optimization and cost-sensitive tendering.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers with Real-Time Data & Forecasting

ChemAnalyst remains a leading intelligence provider for procurement and market professionals in the chemical industry. With real-time price tracking, weekly market updates, plant shutdown monitoring, and deep-dive supply-demand analytics, ChemAnalyst empowers procurement teams to:

Plan purchases at optimal timing
Mitigate supply chain risks
Understand reasons behind price fluctuations
Access forecast tools for budget planning
Receive actionable intelligence from analysts stationed at 50+ global ports
With expertise spanning economics, supply chain operations, and chemical engineering, ChemAnalyst ensures buyers gain accurate, timely, and strategic insights into the VAM market-enabling informed, confident, and cost-effective procurement decisions.

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This release was published on openPR.