Track Ethylene Price Report Historical and Forecast

Ethylene Price Trend and Forecast Report | Global & Regional Market Analysis

Executive Summary

The global ethylene market in 2024-2025 has undergone pronounced volatility as producers, traders, and downstream consumers navigate complex shifts in feedstock markets, logistics constraints, shifting trade flows, and evolving procurement behaviors. Across North America, APAC, and Europe, variations in domestic demand, inventory cycles, and cracker operating rates resulted in uneven pricing movements, with significant divergences driven by feedstock naphtha and natural gas trends, export sentiment, and downstream polyethylene performance.

For the quarter ending September 2025, North America reported a notable quarter-over-quarter rebound due to export-led strength early in the period, before weakening toward September as high inventories and a dip in global offtake pulled the Ethylene Price Index lower. APAC experienced more stable yet firm pricing, supported primarily by strong export demand from China and South Korea. Europe, conversely, saw marginal declines as high inventories and weak downstream procurement weighed on sentiment.

Historical data from Q1-Q4 2024 and earlier quarters in 2025 highlight recurring themes: fluctuating feedstock naphtha prices, the balance between stable domestic consumption and uncertain export flows, and periodic supply disruptions prompting short-lived bullish spikes. The forecast suggests continued sensitivity to feedstock costs, global logistics, and downstream polymer economics, with cautious optimism for mild recovery in certain regions.

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Introduction

Ethylene remains one of the most vital building-block petrochemicals, acting as a foundational feedstock for polyethylene (PE), ethylene oxide, ethylbenzene, PVC precursors, EVA, and multiple industrial intermediates. As global manufacturing, packaging, automotive, consumer goods, and construction sectors oscillate between expansion and contraction cycles, ethylene pricing continues to mirror underlying macroeconomic and sector-specific dynamics.

The period spanning late 2024 to Q3 2025 showcased the inherent sensitivity of ethylene markets to multiple variables: feedstock trends (ethane, naphtha, natural gas), cracker utilization rates, domestic versus export demand imbalances, regional maintenance schedules, logistics bottlenecks, and inventory rhythms. While some regions faced pressure from oversupply, others capitalized on export arbitrage opportunities as freight costs, operational outages, and trade routes shifted global supply.

This comprehensive article captures the global and regional outlook of ethylene markets, providing stakeholders with actionable insights for procurement strategy, production planning, and supply-chain risk mitigation.

Global Ethylene Price Overview (2024-2025)

Global ethylene prices displayed mixed momentum over the past year. While Asia recorded moderate quarterly gains supported by export-driven buying from China, North America and Europe experienced more erratic swings tied to inventory conditions, cost pressures, and downstream PE demand.

Key global factors influencing 2024-2025 price direction included:

Feedstock naphtha volatility: Fluctuations in crude oil and naphtha prices directly impacted cracker margins and production economics.
Downstream polymer weakness: Many regions witnessed softer HDPE, LDPE, and LLDPE demand, slowing ethylene consumption.
Export-driven movements: APAC and MEA exports influenced pricing in North America and Europe through arbitrage and freight dynamics.
Logistics disruptions: Port congestion, shipping delays, and global freight cost changes affected spot availability and trade flows.
Operating rates: Persistent high cracker utilization in some regions contributed to oversupply, while outages in others tightened supply temporarily.
Overall, global ethylene markets remained supply-heavy, yet prone to intermittent tightening due to feedstock spikes, maintenance, or heightened export pull.

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Regional Market Analysis

North America Ethylene Market Analysis

Quarter Ending September 2025

North America recorded a 15.03% quarter-over-quarter increase in the Ethylene Price Index earlier in the quarter, primarily driven by robust export demand. The average price stood at USD 510.33/MT, reflecting active feedstock-linked pricing and moderately tight supply conditions caused by scheduled maintenance and logistical interruptions.

However, by September, the market weakened.

Why did prices fall in September 2025?

High inventories reduced buying urgency, weighing heavily on the spot market.
Weak export demand, particularly from China and Europe, lowered the Ethylene Price Index.
Softening feedstock costs eased production pressures but failed to provide upward support because the region had ample cracker availability.
Improved logistics normalized supply flows, reducing the earlier tightness that had supported stronger spot prices.
Spot price volatility was evident throughout the quarter, with weekly swings reflecting shifts in Gulf Coast cracker margins, feedstock pricing, and export sentiment.

Quarter Ending June 2025

Q2 2025 began with a decline in April due to weak LLDPE demand and oversupply, but stronger HDPE demand and rising feedstock costs helped prices recover into June. Naphtha prices rising by 6.3% added cost support.

Key factors shaping the quarter included:

26.4% price drop in April due to high inventories and sluggish downstream activity.
Freight constraints and export bottlenecks limiting outbound trade opportunities.
Steady domestic LDPE/HDPE demand buffering deeper declines.

Quarter Ending March 2025

Q1 2025 saw a bullish start driven by:

Rising export demand from India and Asia.
Weather-related supply disruptions in Texas and Louisiana.
Proactive stockpiling ahead of maintenance turnarounds.
February and March softened as production normalized, feedstock costs eased, and downstream sectors - especially polyethylene - showed weaker consumption.

Quarter Ending December 2024

North America experienced:

A steep decline in October 2024 caused by oversupply and weak polymer demand.
Stable but flat pricing in November due to balanced fundamentals.
A recovery in December supported by higher production costs and growing export interest from Europe.
Cost Trends, Procurement Behavior & Trade Flow Dynamics

Naphtha and natural gas remain primary cost drivers, directly shaping cracker margins.
Procurement behavior has become more conservative, with buyers delaying purchases until cost clarity improves.
Export flows to Europe and Asia are increasingly influential, alternating between being a price support mechanism during strong arbitrage windows and a source of weakness when global markets soften.

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APAC Ethylene Market Analysis

Quarter Ending September 2025

APAC ethylene markets, led by Japan, saw a modest 2.28% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q3 2025, reaching an average of USD 806.33/MT.

Why did prices rise in September 2025?

Stronger export demand from China and South Korea tightened regional spot availability.
Firming naphtha feedstock costs raised production costs and supported price increases.
Domestic inventories were comfortable, but plant turnarounds and logistics constraints impacted export allocations.
Muted domestic polymer demand capped further upside despite strong export-led sentiment.
Spot pricing remained sensitive to naphtha swings, while stable cracker run rates and balanced inventory levels contributed to market stability.

Quarter Ending June 2025

Q2 2025 in APAC concluded with prices down 2.7% vs Q1, settling near USD 850/MT:

Softened naphtha prices reduced cost support.
Oversupply due to firm cracker operating rates across the region.
Weak downstream polyethylene demand pressured margins and curtailed spot buying.
Competitive cargoes from MEA further weighed on CFR offers.

Quarter Ending March 2025

Q1 2025 trends included:

A stable December 2024 performance with strong purchasing from packaging, automotive, and film sectors.
January slowdown due to post-holiday caution but offset by steady export flows.
February and March saw renewed buying interest from key downstream sectors and output adjustments by producers to balance supply.

Quarter Ending December 2024

APAC recorded a positive upward trend, driven by:

Improved downstream demand from HDPE and LDPE.
Reduced inventory pressure.
Strong buying for December-January shipments.
Recovery in industrial sectors supported by stimulus measures.

Key Cost & Procurement Insights

Naphtha pricing dictates regional ethylene economics more strongly than in North America.
Export-led procurement behavior prevails, especially from China, Korea, and India.
Inventory cycles are shorter, with buyers actively tracking CIF/FOB pricing and freight costs.

Europe Ethylene Market Analysis

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Quarter Ending September 2025

Europe witnessed a slight 0.71% quarter-over-quarter decrease, averaging USD 843.33/MT.

Why did prices fall in September 2025?

High inventories and ample domestic supply reduced buying urgency.
Weak downstream polyethylene demand limited spot activity.
Logistical disruptions led to precautionary restocking, but steady cracker output prevented real tightening.

Quarter Ending June 2025

Q2 2025 saw a 4.6% decline in the FD Hamburg index:

High cracker operating rates worsened oversupply.
Weak polymer offtake from packaging and construction sectors.
Falling naphtha feedstock prices reduced production costs but failed to limit supply.
Germany saw the deepest decline due to localized oversupply and persistently

weak downstream demand.

Quarter Ending March 2025

Q1 2025 trends included:

January stability driven by limited profitability and reduced output.
February increases backed by higher feedstock and energy costs.
March fluctuations due to supply-demand imbalances and port congestion.
Quarter Ending December 2024

Q4 2024 in Europe was largely bearish:

Subdued demand and oversupply pushed October prices down by over 5%.
November remained weak due to inventory build-ups and low industrial activity.
December showed marginal improvement due to higher feedstock costs.

Cost & Procurement Trends

Europe is heavily influenced by naphtha costs, energy prices, carbon compliance, and import-export economics.
Procurement has been selective and cautious, with buyers purchasing only as needed due to weak downstream demand.
Oversupply remains the dominant market driver.

Historical Quarterly Review (2024-2025 Summary)

Across markets, recurring patterns emerged:

Q4 2024:
Europe and North America declined due to oversupply and polymer weakness.
APAC and MEA rebounded late in the quarter.
Q1 2025:
More stable globally, with North America seeing weather disruptions and APAC benefiting from downstream recovery.
Q2 2025:
Global weakness intensified, especially in Europe and APAC, due to oversupply and soft naphtha.
Q3 2025:
APAC and MEA strengthened on export demand; North America initially improved but fell in September; Europe stayed bearish.
Production and Cost Structure Insights

Feedstock Trends

Naphtha remains the dominant cost driver globally, especially in APAC and Europe.

Ethane and natural gas play a strong role in North America, influencing cracker margins.

Operational Trends

Stable but high cracker operating rates in Europe and parts of APAC have caused oversupply.
Outages, turnarounds, and weather disruptions temporarily tightened supply in North America.

Margin Behavior

Margins have periodically compressed due to:
Soft polymer prices
High feedstock costs
Oversupply in export markets
Procurement Outlook

The procurement environment for Q4 2025 and early 2026 is expected to emphasize:

Cautious inventory management as buyers avoid overstocking.
Feedstock monitoring as crude oil volatility shapes naphtha costs.
Export trend evaluation, especially regarding China, Korea, and MEA.
Spot vs. contract flexibility, with more buyers shifting to short-term contracts.
Logistics planning, in light of global port congestion and freight disruptions.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why are ethylene prices so volatile?

Because ethylene is closely tied to feedstock naphtha and ethane, any global crude price swings, refinery disruptions, or logistical issues quickly impact production economics and spot availability.

What drives regional price differences?

Feedstock type, downstream demand strength, cracker utilization rates, export-import flows, freight costs, and inventory levels all contribute to regional pricing divergence.

Why do inventories affect prices so strongly?

High inventories reduce buyer urgency, causing spot prices to decline as sellers compete to clear volumes.

How do logistics impact ethylene pricing?

Port congestion, freight rate changes, or weather disruptions can tighten availability and temporarily lift prices.

Is downstream polymer demand still the key driver?

Yes. Over 60% of ethylene is consumed in polyethylene sectors; therefore, PE market health heavily influences ethylene price direction.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers

ChemAnalyst empowers procurement teams and manufacturers with real-time market intelligence, enabling smarter purchasing and stronger supply-chain planning.

Key Benefits Include:

Real-time price updates across global regions.
Weekly and monthly trend reporting to support market timing.
Accurate, analyst-driven price forecasts based on fundamentals, feedstock behavior, and trade flows.
Supply-chain risk insights, including plant shutdown tracking and outage alerts.
Expert analysis built by chemical engineers and market economists.
On-the-ground intelligence from 50+ global ports including Houston, Shanghai, Busan, Rotterdam, and Jebel Ali.

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