Exhaust System Market to Reach USD 47.9 billion by 2026
The exhaust system (OE) market, by vehicle type is projected to grow from USD 36.9 billion in 2021 to USD 47.9 billion by 2026, at a CAGR of 5.3% during the forecast period. Passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles are classified as on-road vehicles. Most countries follow Euro standards such as Euro 5 and Euro 6. The particle mass and particle number standards for diesel cars in Euro 6 are the same as those in Euro 5. Limits on particle mass emissions for diesel cars have been reduced by large amounts since the Euro 1 standards were introduced. The Euro 6 particle mass limits for diesel cars represent a reduction of 96% from Euro 1 limits. Euro 6 is a significant advancement over Euro 5 with regard to NOX limits. The NOX limit declines from 0.18 g/km to 0.08 g/km, a reduction of 56%. Explicit NOX limits were introduced at the Euro 3 level, and in the Euro 6 standards, the NOX limit is 84% lower than the Euro 3 level. Emerging economies with higher vehicle production like India launched new standards of BS 6 emission standards on April 1, 2020; the diesel vehicle nitrogen oxide (NOx) limit was declined from 250 mg/Km in BS5 to 80 mg/km in BS6.
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Countries adhering to the Paris Agreement for a reduction in vehicle emissions are planning to introduce more stringent emission regulations. Countries such as Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are planning to introduce emission regulations like Euro 5 and Euro 6 post-2023. This will result in more emission stringency and a reduction in vehicle weight. Manufacturers are shifting toward exhaust after-treatment devices through advanced components and technologies to comply with the emission standards. Thus, this is expected to fuel the demand for exhaust systems in on-highway vehicles.
The Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations have set standards related to fuel economy. These regulations mainly aim to lower fuel consumption (or improve fuel efficiency) of vehicles by lowering carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, hence serving the twin purposes of reducing dependence on oil for fuel and controlling pollution.
The EPA and the Department of Transportation issued a proposed ruling that, if enacted, would roll back some of the goals set in 2012, in August 2018. This issue ruling-freezes the fuel economy goals to the 2021 target of 37 miles per gallon. China has Phase V standards with an average fleet target of 4.0 L/100 km (NEDC) by 2025 for passenger vehicles produced in or imported to China, a 20% reduction from the previous 5.0L/100 km target in 2020. In India, mandates that the average corporate CO2 emission must be less than 130 gm per km till 2022 and below 113 gm per km thereafter as per the CAFÉ regulation.
Thus, the on and off-highway vehicle emission regulations combined with the stringent fuel economy regulations are expected to lead the automotive OEMs and exhaust system manufacturers to adopt and develop new components and systems as well as use after-treatment devices to minimize vehicle emissions and drive the exhaust system market during the forecast period.
“The passenger car segment is expected to lead the vehicle type segment due to the increased global vehicle production.”
The production of these vehicles is growing rapidly in emerging countries such as China and India. In China and India, the production of diesel vehicles is significant as consumers prefer gasoline and diesel vehicles. Automotive manufacturers are increasingly investing in these countries due to the availability of cheap labor, suitable infrastructure for production, and attractive government policies for the automotive industry. Key OEMs are Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, General Motors, and Ford.
The passenger car market in the US is growing at a steady rate as consumers are switching to SUVs and pickup trucks. In the US, SUVs and pickup trucks are considered under LCVs.
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