Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market: €500 Million Ghent Project Targets 79,000 Tonnes of Annual SAF Output

A planned commercial-scale alcohol-to-jet project in Ghent, Belgium, illustrates the investment needed to expand sustainable aviation fuel beyond established production pathways. In May 2026, LanzaTech and the FLITE consortium selected North Sea Port as the site for a proposed €500 million facility designed to produce 79,000 tonnes of SAF and 9,000 tonnes of renewable diesel annually. The project is moving through development toward a final investment decision; it is not yet operational. Feedstock supply letters of intent and offtake frameworks have been established, while an environmental-impact assessment process is expected to advance the project. The facility is designed to serve compliance markets including CORSIA, ReFuelEU Aviation and the UK SAF Mandate.

According to DataM Intelligence, the sustainable aviation fuel market was valued at US$3.8 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach US$84.5 billion by 2035, registering a 35.2% CAGR from 2026 to 2035. North America is the largest regional market, while Asia-Pacific is forecast to grow fastest. Biofuel currently accounts for more than half of the market, and commercial aviation represents the largest platform segment.

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Demand commitments are becoming more concrete through long-term supply agreements. In September 2026, Neste and UA extended SAF supply agreements covering Chicago O'Hare and Amsterdam Schiphol. Neste deliveries to United at the two airports began in 2026, with Chicago deliveries planned to continue through June 2027. United reported using more than 83,000 metric tonnes of SAF in 2025, a 104% increase from the previous year.

The UK's policy framework highlights a key constraint: mandated demand depends on feedstock availability and the commercial readiness of newer production routes. The government's 2026 call for evidence said advanced non-HEFA fuels were not yet available in significant volumes and sought input on whether supply could meet future requirements. The mandate's power-to-liquid obligation is scheduled to begin in 2028, while a cap on the share of HEFA fuel eligible for compliance is scheduled from 2027. The government said it was not proposing changes to the overall mandate targets.

Certification and emissions accounting are also developing alongside production. In June 2026, ICAO and IATA agreed to explore how SAF registries and their data could support global monitoring and fuel accounting. ICAO also approved Bonsucro as a new CORSIA sustainability certification scheme, adding another approved route for certifying eligible fuel supply chains.

Market Segmentation

The market is segmented by fuel pathway, aircraft type, platform and region. Biofuel is the most commercially established pathway; hydrogen fuel, power-to-liquid and gas-to-liquid fuels are also included. Fixed-wing aircraft account for the majority of consumption, while rotary-wing use is expected to expand as supply becomes more available. Commercial aviation is the largest platform, alongside military aviation, business aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles.

North America leads the market, supported by refining capacity, feedstock availability and airline participation. Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region, with aviation expansion and SAF initiatives across countries including China, India, Japan and Australia. Europe's blending requirements and developing compliance systems are adding demand visibility while raising the need to diversify production pathways.

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Recent Developments

- September 17, 2026: The UK Department for Transport published its first provisional statistics for SAF Mandate supply in 2026. The dataset was incomplete and based on information available as of September 1.

- September 16, 2026: Neste and UA extended SAF supply agreements for flights from Chicago O'Hare and Amsterdam Schiphol.

- June 22, 2026: ICAO approved Bonsucro as a new sustainability certification scheme for CORSIA-eligible fuels.

- June 2, 2026: ICAO and IATA announced expanded cooperation on SAF tracking, registries and fuel accounting.

Company Profiles

LanzaTech:
LanzaTech uses gas fermentation to convert waste carbon into fuels and chemicals. It is a member of the FLITE consortium developing the proposed Ghent alcohol-to-jet facility, which plans to use LanzaJet's ATJ process and target multiple international compliance markets. LanzaTech

Neste:
Neste produces SAF from renewable waste and residue feedstocks, including used cooking oil and animal fat waste. It reported global SAF production capability of 1.5 million tonnes per year, with capacity expected to rise to 2.2 million tonnes in 2027 following the Rotterdam refinery expansion. Neste

Gevo:
Gevo develops alcohol-to-jet and ethanol-to-jet pathways for producing drop-in SAF. The company's approach uses renewable alcohol and low-carbon feedstocks, with the resulting fuel designed for use in commercial aircraft and existing airport fueling systems.

TotalEnergies:
TotalEnergies produces and supplies SAF from facilities in France, including its La Mède biorefinery and Normandy complex. The company has also described plans to add production at its Grandpuits biorefinery, alongside efforts to secure feedstocks and evaluate intermediate crops for SAF production.

As production scales, competitive positioning will depend on more than announced capacity. Feedstock access, project financing, certification, logistics and binding offtake arrangements will shape which facilities can progress from development to reliable commercial supply.

The market's expansion will involve both established biofuel producers and developers of advanced pathways. Diversifying feedstocks and production technologies will be central to meeting rising SAF requirements while managing supply concentration and cost.

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