The 2026/27 Premier League Title Race: Manchester City, Arsenal and the Chasing Pack

The 2026/27 Premier League Title Race: Manchester City, Arsenal and the Chasing Pack

Here's a sentence I didn't expect to write this autumn: Manchester City, without Pep Guardiola for the first time in a decade, have won every league game they've played. Five out of five. Meanwhile the champions, Arsenal, sit three points back after one slip, and Liverpool, under a brand new manager, haven't lost at all but have drawn three times.

That's where the Premier League title race stands as the league pauses for a long international break. Nothing is settled. Plenty is interesting. And the first proper heavyweight meeting of the season arrives the moment club football returns, when Liverpool host City at Anfield on 10 October.

So who actually looks like a champion, who's bluffing, and which dates should you circle? Let's go through it.

Manchester City's winning formula, with a new man in charge

When Guardiola stepped down at the end of last season, a lot of people (me included) assumed City would wobble. It happens to almost every great club after a great manager leaves. Manchester United after Sir Alex Ferguson is the example everyone reaches for.

City didn't hand the job to an outsider, though. They brought in Enzo Maresca, a former Guardiola assistant who also coached the club's youth side years ago, on a three year deal. He knows the building, the staff and the style. From the outside it looks less like a revolution and more like a handover, and five games in, that approach seems to be working.

The results tell the story. City went to Old Trafford in September and won the derby by a single goal. They beat Sunderland in a wild game at home that finished with eight goals, City scoring five of them. Erling Haaland already has five in the league, which is roughly what you'd expect from Haaland and exactly what you'd fear if you support anyone else. You can follow the squad news and match reports on the official Manchester City website (https://www.mancity.com/).

Is there a weakness? Maybe. Conceding three to a promoted side at home isn't what title winners usually do, and City have let in five goals across their five games. It's not a crisis. It's a detail worth watching when they face sides that can actually punish them.

There's also a cloud hanging over the club off the pitch. Late in September, several major outlets reported that an independent commission had found City guilty of most of the long running Premier League charges over financial rules. At the time of writing no sanctions have been announced and the club is expected to appeal. Until something official happens, the table is the table. But if a points penalty ever does arrive, it could reshape this race completely.

Arsenal and the strange pressure of defending a title

Arsenal's fans waited 22 years for last season. They won the league on the final day at Selhurst Park, holding off City right to the end, and it was their first title since the Invincibles of 2003/04.

What's easy to forget is how close that season came to being painful. Arsenal also lost two finals last season, the Champions League and the League Cup. Mikel Arteta has a squad that's used to big occasions now, and one that knows what it feels like to fall just short. That combination can be dangerous for opponents.

Their start has been solid rather than spectacular: four wins and one defeat, twelve points, and one of the tightest defences in the division with only four goals conceded. The opening weeks weren't gentle either, with a trip to Aston Villa and a home game against Chelsea already out of the way.

If you look at the full calendar on the Arsenal website (https://www.arsenal.com/), one thing jumps out. The big games are spread out. Liverpool away at the end of October, City at home in late November, then City away and Liverpool at home within a single week at the start of 2027. Their trips to the three promoted clubs all come in the second half of the season. That could be a blessing in the spring, or a trap if those sides are fighting for their lives by then.

Defending a title is a different job to winning one. Every team raises its game against you. Arsenal's challenge isn't talent. It's appetite.

Liverpool and the rest of the chasing pack

Liverpool are the hardest team to read right now. Andoni Iraola took over in the summer, and his side are unbeaten after five games. That sounds great until you notice that three of those five were draws. Nine points from a possible fifteen is decent, not scary.

There was a nice moment, though. Iraola went back to Bournemouth, his old club, and won there by a single goal. Little results like that build belief in a new dressing room. The question is whether Liverpool can turn draws into wins before the gap to City becomes too wide.

Behind them, the picture is crowded and a bit odd.

Brighton have been brilliant. They have the best goal difference in the league, helped by a five goal win away at Coventry, and they've scored more goals than anyone. I'm not convinced they can sustain it across 38 games while playing in Europe, but they'll take points off the big clubs, and that matters in a title race.

Manchester United are the disappointment so far. They finished third last season under Michael Carrick and have started with just one win from five, losing the derby along the way. Chelsea, now under Xabi Alonso, are also finding their feet with seven points.

Then there are the spoilers. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are all unbeaten. None of them will win the league, but all of them could decide who does.

Early season form and what it actually tells us

Five games is a small sample. I know that. You know that. Yet every season we still try to read the tea leaves, and sometimes they're right.

Here's what I think the early form does tell us. City's attack hasn't dropped off without Guardiola, which was the biggest question of the summer. Arsenal's defence is still elite. Liverpool are hard to beat but not yet ruthless. And the gap between the top three and everyone else looks real, even if Brighton are crashing the party for now.

What it doesn't tell us is who wins. Remember that three point gaps in September mean very little. A single bad week in December can wipe that out.

I like to keep the live standings open on Valioliiga (https://valioliiga.org/) during a matchday, because it updates straight after the final whistle and shows results, fixtures and form in one place without much clicking around. For the deeper numbers, like expected goals and chance quality, The Analyst (https://theanalyst.com/) is excellent. Its Opta based data often shows whether a team is genuinely strong or just riding its luck. A side winning games while creating very little usually comes back down to earth, and that's worth checking before you get carried away.

Key fixtures that could decide the title

These are the dates I'd circle right now. Kickoff days and times can still move for television and European matches, so treat them as a guide.

● Saturday 10 October: Liverpool v Manchester City. The first real test for Maresca, at a ground where City have often struggled.
● Saturday 31 October: Liverpool v Arsenal. Iraola's first taste of this fixture, and a chance for Liverpool to show they belong in the race.
● Saturday 28 November: Arsenal v Manchester City. Champions against the side that finished second. Probably the biggest game of the autumn.
● The festive run. Arsenal host Manchester United on 19 December, and Boxing Day sends City to Newcastle and Arsenal to Crystal Palace. Title challenges tend to wobble over Christmas.
● Saturday 30 January: Manchester City v Arsenal. The return, just after the Champions League league phase finishes.
● Saturday 6 February: Arsenal v Liverpool. Arsenal's toughest seven days of the season, back to back.
● Saturday 8 May: Manchester City v Liverpool. Late in the season, possibly decisive.
● Sunday 30 May: final day. Arsenal host Brighton, City go to Sunderland and Liverpool welcome Bournemouth. After last season, nobody should assume it will be settled before then.

One more thing to keep in mind. All three leading contenders are in the Champions League, and the league phase runs until late January. Squad depth will be tested all winter. The club that manages its players best through December and January usually looks freshest in April.

So, who wins it?

If you forced me to pick today, I'd lean towards City, simply because a perfect start with a new manager is hard to argue with and Haaland keeps scoring. But I'd only lean. Arsenal have the better defence and the experience of having done it, and I suspect they'll be stronger in the second half of the season than the first.

Liverpool are the wildcard. If Iraola can turn those draws into wins, this becomes a three way race and a genuinely brilliant one.

The honest answer is that nobody knows yet, and that's exactly why it's fun. Come back after the Arsenal and City game on 28 November. By then we'll have a much clearer picture, and probably a few new arguments too.

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