Global Toluene Diisocyanate Price Trend 2026: Why Europe Stayed Strong and the Middle East Fell Sharply

Toluene diisocyanate prices in 2025 followed a clear two-phase pattern. The market started the year on relatively firm footing, moved slightly higher in Q2, and then weakened in the second half as demand softened and pricing pressure increased across several key regions. The overall global trend shows that TDI did not hold on to its early-year gains. Instead, it shifted into decline by Q3 and stayed under pressure through Q4.

That matters because TDI is a core feedstock in the polyurethane value chain. It is widely used in flexible foam, furniture, mattresses, automotive seating, insulation applications, adhesives, coatings, and elastomers. When TDI prices move, the impact is felt across multiple downstream manufacturing sectors. In 2025, those downstream demand patterns were uneven by region, and that is visible in the price data. Europe remained comparatively firm for most of the year, while the Middle East and North America faced sharper corrections. Southeast Asia stayed softer throughout.

The broader picture suggests that 2025 was a year of early stability followed by rebalancing. The market did not collapse globally, but it clearly lost momentum after the second quarter. The regional variation also shows that local supply-demand balance mattered more than any single global pricing trend.

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Global Toluene Diisocyanate price trend

Globally, TDI prices began Q1 2025 at USD 1.88/KG. In Q2, the market rose to USD 1.92/KG, a 2.1% increase. This modest gain suggests the market had some support from stable procurement, cost pass-through, or controlled supply in the first half.

That support faded in Q3. Prices declined to USD 1.81/KG, down 5.7% from the previous quarter. This was the first clear sign that the market was moving into softer conditions. In Q4, the market weakened again, falling to USD 1.73/KG, a further 4.4% decline.

Taken together, the yearly pattern shows a market that peaked in Q2 and then corrected in the second half. The decline was not a one-quarter event. It extended across two consecutive quarters, which usually signals a broader imbalance between supply and real downstream demand.

The global trend can be read as a market that entered 2025 with reasonable support, then gradually lost pricing power as the year progressed. Buyers likely became more cautious, and sellers had less room to defend earlier price levels.

What the global quarterly pattern really means

The shift from Q2 growth to Q3 and Q4 decline is the most important feature of the 2025 TDI market. A market that rises slightly and then falls for two straight quarters is usually dealing with one or more of the following: downstream demand slowdown, inventory overhang, improved supply availability, or resistance to higher offers after a period of earlier firmness.

The fact that the global average declined by a combined 9.8% from Q2 to Q4 shows that second-half weakness was meaningful. This was not just normal seasonal noise. It reflects a clear cooling of the market.

That said, the decline was not equally severe everywhere. Some regions held up much better than others, which is why regional analysis matters so much for TDI.

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Middle East TDI price trend

The Middle East recorded one of the sharpest corrections in the dataset. Prices started at USD 1.78/KG in Q1 and edged up to USD 1.81/KG in Q2, a 1.7% increase. Up to that point, the regional market looked stable and in line with the mild global firming seen in Q2.

The second half changed the picture dramatically. In Q3, prices fell to USD 1.51/KG, a steep 16.6% decline. That is the biggest quarterly drop in the entire dataset. The weakness continued in Q4, where prices declined again to USD 1.38/KG, down another 8.6%.

This is a major full-year correction. From Q2 to Q4, the Middle East lost more than USD 0.40/KG in value. That suggests a region where supply-demand conditions weakened sharply, and the market was unable to absorb available volumes at earlier price levels.

A decline of this size usually points to serious pressure. It may reflect weaker downstream offtake, more competitive supply, or a combination of both. Since the Middle East often plays an important role in trade flows, such weakness can also influence export competitiveness and broader regional sentiment.

The Middle East ended 2025 as one of the weakest TDI markets in directional terms.

Europe TDI price trend

Europe was the strongest and most resilient regional TDI market in 2025. Prices began at USD 2.26/KG in Q1, making Europe the highest-priced region in the dataset from the start. In Q2, prices rose to USD 2.38/KG, a 5.3% increase. That was a strong quarter and suggests the market had both cost support and sufficient demand to absorb higher pricing.

The market continued to strengthen in Q3, with prices reaching USD 2.42/KG, another 1.7% increase. Europe was the only region in the dataset that still posted gains in Q3 while the global average was already declining. That alone makes it a standout.

In Q4, Europe softened slightly to USD 2.39/KG, a mild 1.2% decline. But even after that small correction, the region remained well above its Q1 level and far above other regional price levels.

This tells us that Europe had the strongest pricing support through most of 2025. Its slight Q4 decline looks more like consolidation than collapse. The regional market appears to have remained comparatively tight or at least better balanced than other geographies.

Europe's performance suggests stronger demand resilience, firmer cost structure, or tighter local supply conditions than elsewhere. It was clearly the healthiest TDI market in 2025.

North America TDI price trend

North America followed a pattern closer to the global average, though with a slightly sharper correction. Prices started at USD 1.84/KG in Q1 and rose to USD 1.92/KG in Q2, a 4.3% increase. That was a fairly healthy second-quarter gain and suggests the market started the year with positive momentum.

That momentum did not last. In Q3, prices declined to USD 1.75/KG, down 8.9%. Q4 extended the weakness further, with prices slipping to USD 1.64/KG, down another 6.3%.

The second-half decline in North America was stronger than the global average. That suggests local market conditions weakened more visibly than in some other regions. A two-quarter correction of this size often points to soft downstream demand, easier supply, or a buyer-led market environment where procurement stayed conservative.

By the end of 2025, North America had given back all of its Q2 gains and ended clearly below where it started the year. This places it among the weaker regional TDI markets, though not as severely pressured as the Middle East.

Southeast Asia TDI price trend in 2025

Southeast Asia was soft for most of the year, though its movement was less extreme than the Middle East or North America. Prices started at USD 1.66/KG in Q1 and actually fell in Q2 to USD 1.58/KG, a 4.8% decline. This made Southeast Asia the only listed region that did not participate in the global Q2 increase.

In Q3, the market recovered slightly to USD 1.59/KG, a marginal 0.6% increase. This was a very small move and suggests near-flat conditions rather than a real rebound. In Q4, prices slipped again to USD 1.53/KG, down 3.8%.

The overall pattern points to a persistently soft market. Southeast Asia did not experience a strong rally at any point in 2025. Instead, it stayed in a relatively weak range, with only a brief and minimal pause in Q3.

This usually suggests ongoing competitive pressure and limited downstream strength. Southeast Asia appears to have been one of the more price-sensitive TDI regions in 2025, with weak enough support that even the Q2 global firmness did not show up locally.

TDI market setup for FY 2026

You provided the heading for the FY 2026 forecast but not the detailed forecast data. Even so, the 2025 pattern gives a reasonable starting point for how the market is positioned going forward.

Europe enters FY 2026 from the strongest base. It remained firm through most of 2025 and only softened slightly at the end. That means it is better placed to retain pricing support if downstream demand stays stable.

North America enters FY 2026 from a weaker position. Since prices fell in both Q3 and Q4, the market likely needs either demand recovery or tighter supply to stabilize meaningfully.

The Middle East enters FY 2026 from the weakest point among the listed regions. A market that has already corrected this sharply may stabilize if supply discipline improves, but it also suggests the region is starting from a position of softness.

Southeast Asia looks like a market still waiting for stronger support. Since it never really rallied in 2025, recovery in FY 2026 would probably depend on clearer downstream demand improvement or less aggressive competition.

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How Claight Corporation (Expert Market Research) Database Can Help

The latest report by Expert Market Research, "Toluene Diisocyanate Prices, Trends, Charts, Demand, and Market Analysis - 2026 Edition," offers a comprehensive overview of the global pricing landscape for toluene diisocyanate. Designed for industry stakeholders, the study provides detailed historical and forecast price data, highlighting key market shifts and emerging pricing trends.

Drawing from in-depth research, the report analyses the primary factors influencing toluene diisocyanate prices, including fluctuations in raw material availability, changes in production capacity, and macroeconomic or geopolitical developments. Additionally, the report evaluates global and regional demand patterns, outlining how shifts in end-use industries such as construction, paper, and plastics are impacting market dynamics. By examining the supply-demand balance, Expert Market Research's report helps businesses understand the underlying forces shaping current and future pricing environments, offering valuable insights to guide procurement, pricing strategy, and investment planning.

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