Tungsten Ore Price Trends 2026: Supply Shock, Defence Demand, and Elevated Market Outlook

Tungsten ore prices in FY25 moved sharply upward across most regions, making it one of the strongest-performing commodities during the year. The market was clearly bullish, driven by tight supply conditions, export restrictions, and rising demand from strategic industries like defence and semiconductors. Unlike more cyclical commodities, tungsten showed a structural tightening rather than a short-term spike, with prices accelerating as the year progressed.

The most important factor shaping the market was China's dominant position in tungsten supply. With export controls tightening and mining quotas reduced for the third consecutive year, global availability came under pressure. At the same time, demand from high-value sectors remained strong, creating a situation where buyers were willing to absorb higher prices without significant resistance.

The result was a market that strengthened consistently across most regions, with particularly strong gains in Northeast Asia and South America. North America also moved higher in a steady way, while Europe showed a different pattern with early strength followed by correction.

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Global tungsten ore price trend in FY25

The global tungsten ore price trend in FY25 was clearly bullish. Chinese domestic concentrate prices rose sharply through the year, reaching close to a 90% increase by September. European ammonium paratungstate prices also surged significantly in the first half, reflecting tight supply and strong downstream demand.

This kind of movement is not typical of a balanced commodity market. It indicates a supply-driven rally where availability constraints play a bigger role than demand volatility. In tungsten, supply is highly concentrated geographically, and when restrictions tighten, the impact is immediate and global.

The bullish trend was reinforced by structural demand drivers. Defence applications, particularly in armour-piercing ammunition and advanced weapon systems, continued to expand. At the same time, semiconductor manufacturing added another layer of demand through tungsten hexafluoride usage. Since tungsten represents a relatively small portion of total chip production cost, buyers in this sector remained less sensitive to price increases, which helped sustain the upward momentum.

Northeast Asia tungsten ore price trend in FY25

Northeast Asia recorded the strongest price growth among all regions. Prices started at USD 21.298/KG in Q1 2025 and rose to USD 22.045/KG in Q2, a 3.5% increase. The real acceleration came in the second half.

In Q3, prices jumped to USD 25.881/KG, a sharp 17.4% increase. This was followed by an even stronger rise in Q4 to USD 31.362/KG, up 21.2%. By year-end, the market had moved significantly above its starting level, showing a clear upward curve.

This pattern reflects a market where supply tightening became more visible as the year progressed. The strong Q3 and Q4 gains suggest that buyers were competing for limited material, pushing prices higher in a relatively short time frame.

Northeast Asia's position is closely linked to Chinese supply dynamics, which explains why the region saw such strong momentum. As export restrictions tightened, regional buyers had to secure supply at higher prices, leading to rapid increases in the second half.

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South America tungsten ore price trend in FY25

South America followed a similar trajectory, though with slightly less volatility than Northeast Asia. Prices started at USD 21.658/KG in Q1 and remained almost flat in Q2 at USD 21.610/KG. This suggests that the market was still relatively stable in the first half.

The trend changed in Q3, where prices rose to USD 24.640/KG, a 14.0% increase. In Q4, prices climbed further to USD 28.204/KG, up 14.5%. This shows a strong second-half rally, driven by the same global supply constraints affecting other regions.

South America's movement confirms that the bullish trend was not limited to Asia. Once supply tightened globally, multiple regions experienced upward pressure. The steady gains in Q3 and Q4 suggest that demand remained strong enough to absorb higher prices without triggering a correction.

North America tungsten ore price trend in FY25

North America showed a more gradual but consistent upward trend. Prices began at USD 19.376/KG in Q1 and rose to USD 20.219/KG in Q2, a 4.4% increase. In Q3, the market climbed to USD 22.146/KG, up 9.5%, followed by a smaller increase in Q4 to USD 22.273/KG, up 0.6%.

Compared with Northeast Asia and South America, North America's growth was steadier and less aggressive. The strongest increase came in Q3, after which the market began to stabilize.

This pattern suggests that North America experienced the same global supply pressure but did not see the same level of late-year acceleration. The smaller Q4 increase indicates that the market may have reached a temporary balance after earlier gains.

Even so, the overall trend remained positive, with prices rising across all four quarters. This reflects a market supported by structural demand, even if the pace of increase slowed toward the end of the year.

Europe tungsten ore price trend in FY25

Europe showed a contrasting pattern compared with other regions. Prices started at USD 14.383/KG in Q1 and rose to USD 15.553/KG in Q2, an 8.1% increase. This indicates that the region initially followed the global bullish trend.

In Q3, however, prices dropped sharply to USD 13.588/KG, a 12.6% decline. The decline continued in Q4, with prices falling slightly to USD 13.370/KG, down 1.6%.

This makes Europe the only region in the dataset to show a sustained second-half decline. The pattern suggests that while the region benefited from early-year strength, it faced different demand or supply conditions later in the year.

One possible explanation is that European buyers adjusted procurement strategies after the initial price surge, leading to reduced buying pressure. Another factor could be regional economic conditions affecting industrial demand. Regardless of the cause, Europe diverged from the global bullish trend in the second half.

Despite the decline, Europe remained part of the broader tight supply environment. Its lower price level compared with other regions suggests that local factors moderated the impact of global constraints.

Comparing regional tungsten ore markets

The regional comparison highlights a clear divide.

Northeast Asia and South America experienced strong second-half rallies, with double-digit gains in both Q3 and Q4. North America showed steady growth with a gradual slowdown toward year-end. Europe moved in the opposite direction after Q2, declining through the second half.

By Q4 2025, the regional ranking was:

Northeast Asia - USD 31.362/KG
South America - USD 28.204/KG
North America - USD 22.273/KG
Europe - USD 13.370/KG

This wide gap shows how supply access and regional demand conditions shaped pricing. Regions more directly exposed to Chinese supply constraints saw stronger upward pressure, while others adjusted differently.

Key drivers behind the FY25 tungsten rally

The most important driver was China's export control policy introduced in February 2025. The "one-item, one-certificate" system restricted export volumes and created a supply gap in international markets. Since China dominates global tungsten production, even small changes in export policy have a significant impact.

Mining quota cuts added to the pressure. The 2025 quota was reduced compared with 2024, marking the third consecutive year of decline. This reinforced the perception of tightening supply and contributed to higher prices.

Defence demand was another major factor. Rising global military spending increased demand for tungsten-based materials used in advanced weapon systems. This type of demand is relatively insensitive to price changes, which helps sustain upward trends.

Semiconductor demand also played a role. Tungsten is used in chip manufacturing, and the cost of tungsten feedstock is a small part of overall semiconductor production costs. This means chip manufacturers are willing to pay higher prices without significantly affecting their margins, supporting the market further.

Tungsten ore market forecast for FY26

The outlook for FY26 suggests that prices will remain elevated but with a more stable pattern compared with FY25. The market is expected to move into a consolidation phase rather than continuing the sharp upward trajectory.

China's export restrictions are expected to remain in place, with additional tightening under the Dual-Use Items Catalogue. This means the supply constraint that drove FY25 will continue to influence the market.

New supply projects in South Korea, Kazakhstan, and Portugal are expected to add some capacity, but they will only cover a small portion of global demand. Larger projects, such as Mactung in Canada, are not expected to come online until later years. This limits the potential for supply-driven price correction.

Demand from defence and semiconductor sectors is expected to remain strong. Military spending continues to rise globally, and semiconductor manufacturing is expanding, particularly for advanced technologies. Both sectors provide a stable demand base that supports higher pricing.

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How Claight Corporation (Expert Market Research) Database Can Help

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Drawing from in-depth research, the report analyses the primary factors influencing tungsten ore prices, including fluctuations in raw material availability, changes in production capacity, and macroeconomic or geopolitical developments. Additionally, the report evaluates global and regional demand patterns, outlining how shifts in end-use industries such as construction, paper, and plastics are impacting market dynamics. By examining the supply-demand balance, Expert Market Research's report helps businesses understand the underlying forces shaping current and future pricing environments, offering valuable insights to guide procurement, pricing strategy, and investment planning.

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