Future TV

Media groups, Internet platforms, telcos: who will win?
Audiovisual sector is growing flat and seems to stay at this pace for a while – thereby creating huge challenges for the industry. The shift to online is only one of several disrupting factors.

Within our latest prospective study for TV & video industry we propose an analysis of the determining industry game changers within different scenarios for 2025.
Before drawing the scenarios, the report provides insights on trends for:

Market environment around the themes of regulation, technology, macrosociology and changing demand
Competitive developments, by separating intra-sectoral competition from competitive change between other players in the audiovisual chain or new entrants.
Then the study highlights the baseline scenario as well as three alternative scenarios taking in account uncertainties. Finally it stresses out the impacts on the value chain for each scenario with detailed market figures and forecasts for the audiovisual sector as a whole, as well as a breakdown by market segments – On-demand video, Linear TV and Home Video.

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Table of Content

1. Executive Summary

2. Methodology & definitions
2.1. General methodology of IDATE's reports
2.2. Methodology specific to this report
2.3. Definitions

3. Evolution of the market environment
3.1. Regulation
3.2. Economic and societal indicators
3.3. The IT migration of television
3.4. Evolution of demand

4. Evolution of the competitive environment
4.1. Growing influence of disintermediation and Internet platforms
4.2. Content is king
4.3. Consolidation in the audiovisual sector
4.4. Devices: virtualisation and personal screens
4.5. Consumer players

5. 2025 TV scenarios
5.1. Trend scenario
5.2. Convergence scenario
5.3. Disruption scenario
5.4. Syndication scenario

Table 1: Examples of concentration in the production sector
Table 2: Investments in MCNs by traditional players
Table 3: "Trend scenario" description
Table 4: "Convergence scenario" description
Table 5: "Disruption scenario" description
Table 6: "Syndication scenario" description

Figure 1: Global population growth by region
Figure 2: Global GDP growth by region
Figure 3: Growth of one-person households in the United States, 1960 and 2015
Figure 4: Global growth of mobile speeds
Figure 5: Distribution of time spent watching television, by device and by age
Figure 6: Growth in time spent consuming on-demand movies and TV programmes
Figure 7: Hours per week spent watching OTT videos on the TV in the United States, by age group
Figure 8: The most used on-demand video sites in the United States
Figure 9: Average time spent per individual consuming linear, timeshifted and online television, United States and France, 2015
Figure 10: Consumption of linear TV among 18-34 year olds based on their family situation, United States, end of 2015
Figure 11: Consumer interest in individualised consumption
Figure 12: Consumer interest in recommendation features in content and TV services
Figure 13: Time spent consuming media by adults on a daily basis, United States, April 2016
Figure 14: Proportion of video in total media consumption time, United States, April 2016
Figure 15: Growth in the fees received by the major sports leagues during recent renegotiations for the rights to broadcast on national markets
Figure 16: Netflix's annual spending on content product and acquisition, 2009-2015
Figure 17: Number of YouTube channels exceeding 1 million subscribers in selected countries, May 2016
Figure 18: The major MCNs in France and their links with traditional media companies
Figure 19: Dollars spent on TV services in the United States and Canada, 2013-2015
Figure 20: YouTubers' influence with millennials
Figure 21: Four potential scenarios for the future TV industry
Figure 22: Global audiovisual market by service, 2015-2025 - Trend scenario
Figure 23: Global audiovisual market by region, 2015-2025 - Trend scenario
Figure 24: Global audiovisual market by service, 2015-2025 - Convergence scenario
Figure 25: Global audiovisual market by region, 2015-2025 - Convergence scenario
Figure 26: Global audiovisual market by service, 2015-2025 - Disruption scenario
Figure 27: Global audiovisual market by region, 2015-2025 - Disruption scenario
Figure 28: Global audiovisual market by service, 2015-2025 - Syndication scenario
Figure 29: Global audiovisual market by region, 2015-2025 - Syndication scenario

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