Smart Retail Industry Market Forecast for Robust Growth at 7.7% CAGR During 2024-2031, Anchored by North America's Leadership | Key Players - Walmart, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Amazon.com

Market Overview

Retail Industry Market reached US$ 28,680.3 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 51,554.7 billion by 2031, growing with a CAGR of 7.7% during the forecast period 2024-2031.The market is growing due to rapid urbanization, rising disposable incomes, expansion of e-commerce platforms, omnichannel strategies, digital payment adoption, and changing consumer preferences. Technological advancements, personalized shopping experiences, and improved supply chain networks further accelerate market expansion globally.

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United States: Key Industry Developments

✅ November 2025: US retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, the largest gain since July, rebounding from October's decline and driven by strong auto sales after federal EV tax incentives expired.​

✅ October 2025: Retail sales declined 0.1% month-over-month amid slowdowns, though executives planned major investments in in-house delivery, automated micro-fulfillment centers, and store remodels for 2025 omnichannel profitability.

✅ April 2025: National Retail Federation forecasted 2025 retail sales growth of 2.7-3.7% to $5.42-5.48 trillion, with online sales up 7-9%, citing solid consumer fundamentals despite policy uncertainties.
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Japan: Key Industry Developments

✅ December 2025: Retail sales dropped 0.9% year-over-year, the first decline since August, due to households meeting year-end needs early amid rising wages and cautious spending on clothing and household goods.

✅ November 2025: Convenience store same-store sales expanded 1.1% to ¥1.01 trillion for the 10th month, boosted by Black Friday promotions and higher per-customer purchases from anime collaboration products.

✅ October 2025: Retail sales surged 1.7% year-over-year, the fastest since June, led by machinery/equipment (8.0%) and pharmaceuticals, signaling strong consumer momentum.

✅ May 2025: Muji opened its largest global store at Aeon Mall Kashihara, Nara, with zoned areas for new food, furniture, and fashion items; Kith launched a flagship in Osaka featuring exclusive Osaka-inspired ice cream at Kith Treats.

Latest Mergers & Acquisition

SSRS acquires Edison Research (October 2025, US): Full-service market research firm SSRS bought Edison Research, a leader in election polling, media, and audio studies; value undisclosed. The deal enhances SSRS's expertise in public opinion, quantitative/qualitative research, and global election/media analytics to better serve media, policymakers, and clients.
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Radius Global Market Research acquires Strive Insight Limited (September 2025, UK/US): Radius, a global insights firm, acquired the London-based agency to expand its international reach and resources; financial terms not disclosed. This partnership strengthens client services in bespoke research while retaining Strive's UK operations and management.
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Qualtrics to acquire Press Ganey Forsta (October 2025, global): Experience management platform Qualtrics agreed to a $6.75 billion deal for Press Ganey Forsta, a data and healthcare insights provider. The strategic move combines technology with benchmarking expertise to advance AI-driven customer experience management across industries.

This report addresses:
Market intelligence to enable effective decision making
Market estimates and forecasts from 2024-2032
Growth opportunities and trend analyses
Segment and regional revenue forecasts for market assessment
Competition strategy and market share analysis
Product innovation listing for you to stay ahead of the curve
COVID-19's impact and how to sustain in these fast-evolving markets

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Key Players:

Walmart - One of the largest global retailers with roughly 21% share of the overall U.S. retail market, consistently leading in revenue worldwide. Core strength lies in its extensive store footprint, everyday low pricing, and growing omnichannel capabilities.

Amazon.com, Inc. - Dominates the e-commerce segment with a projected 40% share of U.S. online retail sales and rapidly expanding physical and grocery fulfillment. Its core strengths are unmatched logistics, digital marketplace scale, and diversified tech/fulfillment infrastructure.

Costco Wholesale Corporation - Holds an estimated 15% share in the broader retail/warehouse club market depending on segment measurement, ranking among the top U.S. retailers by revenue. Strengths include its membership model, bulk pricing, and high customer loyalty.

The Home Depot - Represents about 5% of U.S. retail market share with leadership in home improvement retail. Core strengths are strong brand, specialized product mix, pro/customer segments, and resilient DIY demand.

Kroger Co. - Around 5.1% share of overall U.S. retail, ranking as the largest traditional grocery retailer. Its strengths include a vast store network, private-label products, and loyalty programs driving repeat business.

Market Segmentation:
Product Segmentation
The Retail Industry Market segments by product into Apparel & Footwear, Food and Grocery Products, Health & Beauty, Electronics, Furniture, Toys, Pet Care, and Others, with Food and Grocery commanding the largest share due to essential daily demand. Growth drivers include rising consumer spending on convenience foods and online grocery delivery, fueled by urbanization and busy lifestyles, while Apparel & Footwear expands via fast fashion trends and e-commerce personalization. Health & Beauty benefits from wellness awareness post-pandemic, Electronics from tech upgrades like 5G devices, and niche segments like Pet Care from pet humanization trends. These segments underscore the market's significance in catering to diverse consumer needs, driving over $30 trillion in global retail value by adapting to preferences for sustainability and digital shopping.

Sector Segmentation
Divided into Organized and Unorganized sectors, the Organized sector-encompassing chain stores and branded outlets-grows rapidly at a CAGR exceeding 8%, driven by supply chain efficiencies, data analytics for inventory management, and consumer trust in quality. Unorganized retail, dominant in emerging markets like India, relies on local relationships but faces modernization pressures from regulations and digital disruption. This segmentation highlights the market's evolution toward consolidation, with organized retail's expansion signifying improved consumer experiences, hygiene standards, and economic formalization amid a shift from traditional kirana stores to modern formats.

Distribution Channel Segmentation
Retail distribution channels include Supermarkets/Hypermarkets, Specialty Stores, Department Stores, Convenience Stores, E-Commerce, and Others, where E-Commerce surges with a projected CAGR of 15-20% through 2030, propelled by mobile apps, same-day delivery, and AI recommendations. Supermarkets/Hypermarkets thrive on one-stop shopping and bulk deals, while Convenience Stores gain from urban quick-access needs. Specialty and Department Stores focus on experiential retail, but E-Commerce's dominance reflects pandemic-accelerated digital adoption, making channels pivotal for market significance by enabling omnichannel strategies that blend physical and online touchpoints for broader reach.

Regional Insights:
North America
North America dominated the market research services market in 2025, benefiting from advanced tech adoption and data-driven decisions in sectors like healthcare and FMCG. Growth is supported by stable economic conditions and innovations like AI platforms from companies such as Meta and AlphaSense. Quantifiable indicators include its position as the top region, with overall services market expansion at 3.6% CAGR into 2026.
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Europe
Europe's market research and public opinion polling sector reached €25.2 billion in 2026, with 3.7% annual revenue growth projected. Advertising and market research grew at a 1.0% CAGR from 2020-2025, with over 522,000 businesses by 2025. Western Europe ranks second globally, fueled by online surveys and analytics-led models amid economic recovery.

Asia Pacific
The Asia Pacific market research industry is projected to hit $38.2 billion by 2026 at a 9.4% CAGR from 2021-2026, driven by e-commerce, healthcare, and AI/ML adoption. High economic growth over 6% in key markets like China and India boosts demand for digital analytics and innovative research. Sectors such as financial services and consumer goods amplify opportunities through scalable data handling.

Market Dynamics:

The retail industry market is propelled by several key growth drivers amid evolving consumer behaviors and technological integration. Rising e-commerce adoption, fueled by seamless omnichannel experiences like buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and rapid delivery options, continues to expand market reach, particularly as online shopping outpaces physical stores. Artificial intelligence (AI) advancements enable hyper-personalization through real-time recommendations, predictive analytics, and dynamic pricing, enhancing customer loyalty and operational efficiency across inventory management and marketing. Sustainability demands drive ethical sourcing, eco-friendly packaging, and circular economy practices, attracting environmentally conscious consumers and differentiating brands in competitive landscapes. Economic recovery in consumer spending, coupled with social commerce growth on platforms like TikTok Shop and emerging market expansions in regions like India, further accelerates revenue streams. Additionally, technological innovations such as augmented reality (AR)/virtual reality (VR) shopping and connected packaging with RFID/AI integration improve engagement and supply chain transparency.

Primary restraints, however, pose significant hurdles to sustained growth. Persistent supply chain disruptions from geopolitical tensions, logistical bottlenecks, and post-pandemic effects lead to inventory shortages, delays, and escalated costs, eroding customer satisfaction. Inflationary pressures squeeze profit margins, forcing price hikes that deter price-sensitive shoppers while complicating value-driven strategies. Labor shortages in warehousing, delivery, and retail operations hinder scalability, particularly for last-mile fulfillment amid rising omnichannel demands. Regulatory factors, including evolving data privacy laws (e.g., GDPR expansions) and sustainability mandates, increase compliance burdens and operational complexities for global retailers.

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