Track White Oil Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global White Oil market experienced a multi-quarter cycle of price corrections, shifting supply dynamics, and fluctuating downstream consumption between Q4 2024 and Q3 2025. While North America and Europe saw prolonged price pressures due to subdued demand and ample availability, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region recorded mixed performance-initial tightness followed by oversupply-induced softening.

By Q3 2025, bearish sentiment dominated North America and APAC, whereas Europe displayed moderate firmness supported by seasonal restocking in pharma and personal care industries. Cost trends remained largely stable, influenced by flat crude oil benchmarks, improved refinery operating rates, competitive imports, and easing freight costs.

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Introduction

White Oil-also known as mineral oil or liquid paraffin-is widely used across personal care, pharmaceuticals, plastics, textiles, lubricants, and food processing industries. Its price movement is heavily influenced by crude oil dynamics, refining margins, feedstock supply conditions, logistics efficiency, and downstream sector demand.

Between late 2024 and Q3 2025, the global market navigated through hurricanes, refinery disruptions, macroeconomic uncertainties, freight rate reductions, and evolving trade flows. Amid such volatility, procurement strategies shifted toward cautious, conservative purchasing, as end-user industries balanced cost pressures with weak retail and industrial activity.

This article consolidates all major developments across North America, APAC, and Europe, offering a complete and authoritative view of White Oil pricing trends and future expectations.

Global Price Overview (Q4 2024 - Q3 2025)

A Multi-Quarter Softening Trend Dominates the Market

Across the global landscape, White Oil prices generally trended downward from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025, barring a few temporary upticks driven by short-lived supply constraints or seasonal restocking cycles.

Key Global Signals:

Crude oil volatility moderated across 2025, limiting cost-push risks.
Refinery operating rates improved across regions, increasing white oil availability.
Downstream demand from cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and lubricants remained lukewarm.
Freight costs declined, especially on Asia-to-US routes, improving import competitiveness.
Trade flows shifted in favor of Asia, whose producers supplied competitively priced barrels globally.
Inventory levels remained high across multiple regions as buyers preferred low-volume, need-based procurement.
By Q3 2025, the market was characterized by bearish-to-stable pricing in most regions except Europe, where seasonal buying ahead of Q4 supported mild upward adjustments.

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Regional Analysis

North America Market Overview

Q3 2025 - Prices Fall Amid Soft Demand and Ample Inventories

In the United States, the White Oil Price Index declined 8.18% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025. The average price hovered around USD 1238/MT, with spot values easing due to elevated inventories and muted downstream consumption.

Key Drivers in Q3 2025:

Seasonal moderation in pharma and personal care demand reduced buying urgency.
Improved freight costs eased landed prices, preventing sharper declines.
High inventory levels from earlier quarters exerted downward pressure.
Competitive import flows continued to restrain domestic pricing.
Hurricane season risks placed mild upside caps on sharp price declines.
Why prices changed in September 2025:
Soft demand, improved logistics, competitive imports, and slow spot activity collectively drove price softness.

Q2 2025 - Prices Decline 5.8% QoQ Amid Tepid Demand

The quarter ending June 2025 saw White Oil prices decline 5.8% QoQ in North America. Downstream personal care and cosmetics sectors exercised caution amid inflation and weak retail sales, while supply chains recovered smoothly after previous disruptions.

Notable Market Movements:

Stable domestic refinery throughput maintained sufficient supply.
Lower freight rates from Asia enhanced import competitiveness.
Occasional cost upticks from crude oil were offset by inventory surpluses.
Conservative procurement behavior kept the market in a narrow, bearish band.
Why prices shifted in July 2025:
Soft cosmetics demand, adequate import flows, and stable refinery output contributed to a modest price dip.

Q1 2025 - Prices Decline 8.3% QoQ After Early Storm-Induced Tightness

North America entered Q1 2025 with a temporary price spike due to Winter Storm Enzo, which disrupted refinery operations, tightened supply, and extended lead times. However, as the quarter progressed:

Refinery operations normalized.
Freight rates fell, improving import availability.
Demand remained weak across cosmetics, pharma, and plastics.
By quarter-end, oversupply dominated, pushing prices down despite early cost pressures. The quarter closed at USD 1350/MT CFR Texas, marking a notable drop from Q4 2024.

Q4 2024 - Prices Decline 11% Despite Early Supply Tightness

The quarter began with:

Hurricanes and port strikes (ILA-USMX) limiting supply.
Lower refinery run rates tightening early output.

However, by late Q4 2024:

Run rates rose from 88.25% to 90.65%.
Crude oil prices fell 1.6%.
Suppliers liquidated inventories, creating oversupply.
This resulted in a strong downward correction, setting the tone for early 2025.

Asia-Pacific (APAC) Market Overview

Q3 2025 - Price Index Falls 10.7% QoQ Amid Oversupply and Weak Demand

APAC, particularly China, saw significant price declines driven by domestic oversupply and weak downstream industries such as lubricants and plastics. The average Q3 price was USD 902/MT.

Key Factors Influencing Q3 Prices:

High refinery runs and ample inventory saturated the market.
Spot market volatility, especially mid-quarter, drove sharp declines.
Weak lubricant and plastics demand reduced enquiry volumes.
Buyers adopted need-based procurement, delaying restocking.

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Why prices changed in September 2025:

High supply, soft feedstock costs, and sluggish logistics-driven restocking contributed to volatility and downside movement.

Q2 2025 - Prices Edge Up 0.6% QoQ Due to Seasonal Restocking

APAC registered marginal firmness early in Q2 2025, supported by seasonal restocking in May and disciplined supply conditions despite generally weak downstream demand.

Q2 Highlights:

Steady refinery throughput maintained balanced availability.
Competitive imports ensured adequate supply.
Lubricant and cosmetic sector demand remained inconsistent.
Price gains were narrow, sustaining a stable yet fragile market structure.
Why prices changed in July 2025:
Ample inventory, weak automotive/lubricant demand, and cautious procurement triggered mild price declines.

Q1 2025 - Prices Rise 4.5% QoQ Amid Early Supply Tightness

White Oil prices in APAC rose due to:

Low refining activity and closures early in the quarter.
Higher crude oil costs supporting stronger price levels.
Pre-holiday buying in China, particularly for lighter viscosity grades.
As the quarter progressed:

Production normalized post-holiday.
Crude costs softened.
Downstream demand remained subdued.
China recorded the most notable Q1 rise, ending at USD 1075/MT Ex-Shenzhen.

Q4 2024 - Bearish Sentiment Driven by Refinery Activity Swings

APAC saw prices rise early in the quarter (6.4%) due to refinery closures but eventually fall 7.2% due to:

Improved throughput after Beijing's stimulus.
Rising inventories due to destocking.
Soft final demand.
This set a mixed foundation for early 2025 pricing patterns.

Europe Market Overview

Q3 2025 - Prices Rise Slightly Due to Seasonal Restocking

Europe diverged from global softness in Q3 2025, posting a mild upward trend supported by seasonal restocking in personal care and pharma sectors.

Key Influencers:

Pharma-grade and food-grade segment demand strengthened.
Stable refinery margins and feedstock costs ensured predictable production.
Balanced inventories across France, Germany, and Benelux supported disciplined pricing.
Regulatory compliance for high-purity grades reinforced steady, premium demand.
Why prices changed in September 2025:
Seasonal restocking, timely logistics, and stable base oil prices contributed to moderate price lifts.

Q2 2025 - Prices Decline Due to Weak Demand and Competitive Imports

Q2 2025 was bearish across Europe as:

Downstream cosmetics and pharma demand remained sluggish.
Asian imports intensified price competition.
Refiners tailored run rates to avoid oversupply.
The lubricant industry recorded weak offtake across metalworking, textile lubricants, and specialized formulations.

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Why prices changed in July 2025:
High inventories, weak economic outlook, and competitive imports pressured values further.

Q1 2025 - Prices Slip Slightly Due to Oversupply and Weak Demand

Price trends were shaped by:

Early Q1 cost increases from crude.
Weak consumption in German cosmetics and personal care sectors.
Increased dependence on regional markets due to U.S. trade tensions.
Elevated inventories and competitive imports.
Despite some pharma sector improvement, the quarter ended bearish.

Q4 2024 - Oversupply and Logistics Challenges Drive Down Prices

Europe's Q4 2024 White Oil market was characterized by:

Ample Middle Eastern imports.
Low downstream manufacturing activity.
Simultaneous cargo arrivals causing storage congestion.
Higher shipping costs due to rerouting around Cape of Good Hope.
Inland logistics disruptions in Northwestern Europe.
Destocking activity dominated, reinforcing a downward price trajectory.

Historical Quarterly Review (Q4 2024 - Q3 2025)

Across the four quarters reviewed:

Q4 2024: Global oversupply dominated despite early supply shocks.
Q1 2025: Weather disruptions, refinery issues, and crude fluctuations created uneven price traction.
Q2 2025: High inventories, competitive imports, and weak downstream demand suppressed prices.
Q3 2025: Weak consumption and abundant supply pressured North America and APAC, while Europe saw moderate seasonal strength.

Overall, the global White Oil market experienced sustained softness, shaped primarily by demand-side fragility and supply-side adequacy.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Feedstock Dynamics

White Oil production costs depend on Group II & III base oils, refinery operating rates, and crude trends. Across the review period:

Crude prices remained mostly stable, reducing cost volatility.
Feedstock availability improved, particularly post-Q4 2024 refinery closures in China.
Refining margins were steady, supporting predictable cost structures.
Operating Efficiency

Refineries worldwide increased run rates through 2025, which:

Enhanced product availability
Reduced marginal production costs
Supported bearish pricing in buyer-driven markets

Trade Flow Impacts

APAC producers became increasingly competitive in global markets.
Europe relied heavily on Middle Eastern imports.
North America saw rising competitive pressure from Asia due to falling freight rates.

Procurement Outlook

Buyers across all major regions should expect:

Stable-to-soft prices in the coming months due to balanced supply.
Continued cautious purchasing from downstream customers.
Minimal cost-push pressure unless crude oil experiences a sharp rebound.
Better negotiation opportunities given competitive import availability.
Key Procurement Strategies:

Maintain lean inventory but monitor Q4 seasonal patterns in Europe.
Leverage Asia-origin imports where freight advantages persist.
Track refinery operating rate fluctuations, especially during hurricane or maintenance seasons.
Use spot procurement to capitalize on volatility in APAC and North America.

FAQ Section - White Oil Market (Q4 2024 - Q3 2025)

Why did White Oil prices fall in North America in Q3 2025?
Soft downstream demand, improved logistics, and competitive imports weakened the Price Index.

What drove APAC prices down in September 2025?
Oversupply, stable feedstock costs, and weak lubricant/plastics demand triggered volatility and declines.

Why did Europe's White Oil prices rise in Q3 2025?
Seasonal restocking, strong pharma/personal care demand, and stable feedstock costs supported modest increases.

What were the main cost factors influencing White Oil production across 2025?
Mostly stable crude prices, improved base-oil availability, and optimized refinery operations.

Did logistics play a major role in price formation?
Yes-falling freight rates lowered import costs in North America; improved European inland logistics lifted Q3 prices; APAC saw mixed effects from periodic congestion.

How did downstream sectors influence pricing?
Cosmetics, pharma, lubricants, and plastics showed soft demand throughout 2025, limiting upward momentum across regions.

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How ChemAnalyst Supports White Oil Buyers with Real-Time Market Intelligence

ChemAnalyst offers comprehensive, real-time data and expert-driven insights to help procurement teams make accurate, strategic decisions. With coverage across more than 450 commodities, ChemAnalyst provides:

✔ Live Price Tracking

Daily and weekly price updates for global White Oil markets, including spot assessments, contract discussions, and regional benchmarks.

✔ Price Forecasts

Forward-looking projections help procurement professionals time their purchases strategically and anticipate market movements.

✔ Supply Chain Intelligence

Monitoring refinery shutdowns, force majeures, and production changes ensures buyers stay ahead of disruptions.

✔ Demand-Supply Analytics

Deep insights into downstream consumption trends help understand market softness or bullish tendencies.

✔ Ground-Level Market Validation

ChemAnalyst's teams in Houston, Cologne, New Delhi, and more than 50 major trading ports deliver real-time intelligence straight from local markets.

✔ Expert Analyst Support

Chemical engineers and industry veterans provide tailored insights, enabling buyers to interpret market shifts effectively.

Conclusion

The period between Q4 2024 and Q3 2025 presented a complex landscape for the global White Oil market. While North America and APAC grappled with oversupply and soft demand, Europe exhibited resilience through seasonal restocking and stable feedstock dynamics. Despite localized fluctuations, the overall global trend leaned bearish.

As buyers plan ahead for 2025-2026 procurement cycles, leveraging real-time data, supply-side intelligence, and market forecasts from ChemAnalyst will be critical for optimizing cost efficiency and navigating a continuously evolving commodity environment.

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This release was published on openPR.