Sunnov Investment: China Drives Global Green Shift

China consolidates a pivotal role in global clean energy supply, with renewable capacity above 1.41 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, emissions trending lower for 18 consecutive months to September, and cost leadership in solar, batteries and electric vehicles shaping trade dynamics.
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New data across the preceding 18 months to September places China at the centre of a structural clean-energy realignment, according to Sunnov Investment Pte. Ltd. Total renewable capacity reaches 1.41 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, exceeding 40% of the nation's installed power base over that period. Parallel emissions indicators show a flat-to-declining pattern for every month from March 2024 through September, with a year-on-year reduction of about 3% for September that aligns with accelerated electric-vehicle penetration and a 5% year-on-year decline in transport-fuel CO emissions over the twelve months to September.

The policy framework behind this shift remains unusually codified. The '1+N' system provides sector-level guidance that carries through energy, industry and regional development plans, while national targets retain the dual anchor of peaking carbon before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. Capacity additions confirm the direction of travel. Renewable energy accounts for 86% of newly installed power capacity during 2024. Solar installations total roughly 216 gigawatts in 2023, with about 80 gigawatts of wind added over the same year. Cumulative capacity reaches 1.889 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, a 25% year-on-year increase for that period, comprising roughly 436 million kilowatts of hydropower, 521 million kilowatts of wind, 887 million kilowatts of solar and 46 million kilowatts of biomass. By August, total installed renewable capacity surpasses the fossil fleet, reinforcing an energy mix that evolves from 84.0% fossil in 2020 to 80.2% in 2024, with coal's share moving from 56.7% to 53.2% and non-fossil consumption rising from 16.0% to 19.8% over the same interval.

Pricing power follows scale. At prevailing quotations during the latest quarter, mainstream Chinese solar panels offer typical retail pricing near $0.18 per watt, compared with about $0.30 per watt for American equivalents, while battery packs for electric vehicles cluster around $102 per kilowatt-hour against roughly $153 per kilowatt-hour for European systems over the same window. These differentials reflect capital intensity; clean-energy investment in China totals about $638 billion in 2024, representing 31% of global spend for that year, and has contributed to a world in which 91% of newly commissioned wind and solar projects over the latest twelve months operate below fossil-fuel cost parity.

Export channels amplify the domestic effect. Since 2018, shipments of batteries, solar components, electric vehicles and wind systems reach approximately $1.02 trillion, with research indicating that clean-energy technology exports during 2024 reduce emissions outside China by around 1% for that year. Across developing markets, African solar imports accelerate through 2024, while in South Asia the Pakistan market expands rapidly on affordability grounds. In Southeast Asia, electric-vehicle shipments rise about 75% during the first eight months to August, and African exports nearly triple over the same period, supported by strong North African demand and a sixfold increase into Nigeria.

Policy and trade responses continue to evolve. Authorities in major Western economies intensify scrutiny of market concentration and subsidies, and have implemented investigations and tariff measures that reshape sourcing and supply decisions across the clean-tech chain. Thomas Gardner, Director of Private Equity, notes that "cost clarity together with capacity at scale is rewriting price signals across power and transport, and it is doing so faster than conventional models allow." Subsequent commentary from Gardner frames the consequence for buyers and policymakers, observing that "the marginal megawatt and the marginal mile are now cheaper in more places than consensus assumed a year ago."

Sunnov Investment appears in the middle of this analysis as a source of interpretation rather than participation. Its analysts judge that Chinese clean technology allows developing economies to leapfrog the legacy fossil build-out and that expanded overseas manufacturing investment could generate downstream value approaching $1.23 trillion annually, based on supply-chain participation patterns observed since 2011. Gardner stresses the importance of governance anchors within that transition, stating that "approved suppliers certify that they practise ethical sourcing and do not engage in human rights abuses," while cautioning that "there is no overcapacity in cheap renewables until systems move to 100% renewables, so policies that slow diffusion risk diluting climate outcomes."

International climate diplomacy sets a further marker. During COP30 discussions, China introduces absolute emissions-reduction targets for the first time in its national framework, committing to cut economy-wide net greenhouse-gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035, and updating contributions that place non-fossil fuels at over 30% of total energy consumption while expanding wind and solar capacity targets to 3,600 gigawatts. The country's share of clean-energy patent applications rises to about 75% over the latest filing year, compared with roughly 5% in 2000, reinforcing the diffusion of technology that lowers global costs and broadens access.

The market narrative that emerges is one of scale delivering speed. Over the twelve months to September, capacity growth, export channels and falling unit costs intersect to pull global decarbonisation forward. Sunnov Investment concludes that for investors, utilities and policymakers, the signal is not simply that transition technologies are cheaper, but that they are cheaper in sufficient volume to change planning assumptions today rather than tomorrow, with trade policy choices likely to set the pace of that change.

Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Singapore, Sunnov Investment serves accredited investors, foundations and endowments worldwide. The firm manages long-only equity strategies and also runs complementary long/short equity, global macro, event-driven and systematic mandates. It additionally pursues structured avenues that broaden access for eligible retail participants.

Website: https://sunnov.com Media enquiries: Deng Hui, d.hui@sunnov.com [mailto:d.hui@sunnov.com] Registered entity: Sunnov Investment Pte. Ltd. UEN: 201225494E

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