Track Carbon Black Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global Carbon Black market in 2024-2025 navigated a complex landscape shaped by fluctuating feedstock costs, shifting demand cycles, supply-side imbalances, and ongoing logistics volatility. Across major regions-including North America, Asia Pacific (APAC), Europe, and the Middle East & Africa (MEA)-market participants observed divergent price developments influenced by variations in tyre production, automotive output, energy markets, freight rates, and inventory strategies.

Through 2024 and into 2025, prices oscillated between bullish, cost-driven surges and demand-led declines. While Q4 2024 saw significant upward pressure in North America and APAC due to supply disruptions and rising feedstock costs, Q1 and Q2 2025 reflected the impact of weaker tyre demand, flattened industrial activity, normalized freight markets, and elevated inventories. By Q3 2025, pricing across regions turned increasingly cautious as sluggish downstream demand, limited restocking, and stable-to-easing feedstock values reduced upward momentum.

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Introduction

Carbon Black is a critical industrial material used predominantly in tyre manufacturing, rubber goods, plastics, coatings, and inks. Its price trajectory is heavily influenced by crude oil and natural gas markets, coal tar availability, refinery operating rates, global logistics, and the health of the automotive and tyre sectors. From 2024 into 2025, the market confronted overlapping pressures from geopolitical events, energy price fluctuations, changing trade policies, and evolving consumption patterns across traditional and emerging industries.

This article presents a thorough evaluation of Carbon Black price movements, examining quarterly shifts, regional dynamics, cost structures, supply conditions, and demand outlooks. Drawing from extensive market insights, it delivers a consolidated narrative suitable for industry publications, procurement teams, manufacturers, traders, and policymakers.

Global Price Overview

Globally, Carbon Black prices during late 2024 and throughout 2025 showed significant variability driven by regional supply conditions, refinery feedstock trends, tyre demand cycles, and transportation constraints. Several key themes emerged:

Demand Weakness vs. Cost Support
Across regions, demand from tyre manufacturers-especially OEM and replacement tyre segments-softened due to:

Slower automotive sales,
High interest rates restraining vehicle financing,
Depleted consumer sentiment,
Reduced global restocking.
Yet, energy markets supported pricing during several quarters due to elevated natural gas, coal tar, and crude oil costs.

Inventory Overhang and Operating Rates

Producers across North America, Europe, and China maintained stable to high operating rates, despite soft demand, leading to:

Inventory buildups,
Pressure on spot prices,
Higher discounting,
Increased export competition.
Logistics and Trade Flow Impacts

Q1-Q3 2025 witnessed:

Lower freight rates,
Normalized port congestion,
Few major disruptions outside APAC during intermittent blank sailings.
Freight normalization eased cost pressure but increased competition from low-cost imports, affecting domestic sellers in Europe and North America.

Price Indices Reflect Downward Pressure

By Q3 2025:

North America: Carbon Black Price Index fell 3.8% QoQ.
APAC (Japan): Price Index dropped 11.89% QoQ.
Europe (Germany): Price Index plunged 20.24% QoQ.
MEA: Price Index showed a marginal 0.29% QoQ rise due to steady imports.
The overarching trend indicates broad stabilization with persistent downward pressure, except in regions with supply-side resilience or cost-driven support.

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Regional Analysis

North America

Q3 2025 Price Movement

During the quarter ending September 2025:

The Carbon Black Price Index declined by 3.8%, reflecting weak downstream appetite.
Average quarterly prices hovered at USD 1225/MT.
Spot prices remained largely stable due to balanced domestic flows.
Producer inventories remained elevated.
Export demand remained weak, limiting upward momentum.
Why Prices Changed in September 2025

Key factors include:

High domestic production and minimal Gulf Coast maintenance, boosting supply.
Mixed feedstock pricing, where softer crude mitigated higher gas costs.
Weak export interest, reducing competitive tension in the domestic market.
Strong distribution networks, limiting the need for aggressive spot adjustments.

Q2 2025 Recap

North America showed a mixed trend during Q2 2025:

Prices dipped in April but gained slightly in May-June.
Quarter closed around USD 1,610/tonne FOB Texas.
High inventories and soft tyre demand prevented significant recovery.
Buyers negotiated lower delivered prices amid abundant supply and competitive imports.

Why Prices Fell in July 2025

Excess inventory buildup in Texas and Louisiana.
Muted restocking among tyre and rubber manufacturers.
Stable freight failed to improve demand.
Margins thinned as sellers discounted to stimulate movement.

Q1 2025 Review

Prices fluctuated between USD 1980-2010/MT FOB Texas.
Weak demand and oversupply kept pricing stable.
Elevated production costs persisted due to higher energy prices.
Persistent logistical delays from Q4 2024 gradually eased.
Automotive and agricultural tyre sectors provided moderate support.

Q4 2024 Historical Insight

Bullish trend driven by:
Hurricane-induced refinery shutdowns,
Canadian port strikes,
Rising butadiene costs.
Seasonal tyre demand prevented deeper declines despite weaker industrial activity.

Supply & Logistics Conditions

Gulf Coast producers ran at capacity.
No major disruptions reported.
Freight stability increased competitiveness of imports.
Procurement Behavior

Buyers adopted cautious restocking.
Preference for delivered-cost optimization.
Negotiations focused on discounts amid inventory overhang.

Outlook

Prices expected to remain range-bound.
Limited upside unless:
Tyre demand recovers,
Import disruptions occur,
Costs rebound significantly.

Asia Pacific (APAC)

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Q3 2025 Price Dynamics

Japan and regional APAC markets saw:

11.89% QoQ decline in the Carbon Black Price Index.
Average Q3 2025 import price: USD 991/MT CFR.
Spot prices range-bound due to matched imports and muted downstream demand.
Weak OEM tyre orders suppressed buying activity.
Port throughput challenges influenced supply timing.

Why Prices Changed in September 2025

Terminal disruptions, including blank sailings, restricted CFR arrivals.
Soft domestic tyre demand reduced procurement intensity.
Lower crude and freight costs reduced landed costs, pressuring sellers.
Elevated inventories exacerbated downward pricing pressure.

Q2 2025 Recap

Carbon Black Price Index (FOB Qingdao) declined:

April: -2.4%
May: -3.6%
June: -1.2%
Quarter closed around USD 1,280/tonne.

Weakened export demand due to:

Tariff impacts,
Lower restocking in US/EU,
Overcapacity in China.

Why Prices Fell in July 2025

Slower Chinese exports due to trade tensions.
Inland tyre production remained weak during off-season.
Qingdao Port congestion, causing delivery delays.
Feedstock costs (RFO, coal tar pitch) declined, narrowing margins.

Q1 2025 Review

Prices ranged USD 1210-1260/MT CFR Penang.
Weak automotive demand led to early-quarter declines.
Rising gas and crude mid-quarter increased production costs.
Port congestion in East Asia imposed a cost premium.
Localised buying for regional holidays provided limited support.

Q4 2024 Historical Insight

Early Q4: Bullish due to:
Supply constraints,
Strong tyre demand,
High butadiene rubber prices.
Late Q4:
Demand softened,
Lower butadiene rubber prices reduced cost pressure,
Export sentiment turned cautious as trade tensions eased.

Supply & Logistics Conditions

Consistent inbound shipments maintained availability.
Port disruptions occasionally tightened supply.
Freight normalization began reducing cost burdens.

Procurement Behavior

Buyers focused on minimal restocking.
Preference toward blended domestic/import procurement.
Hedging against volatile energy markets.

Outlook

Prices expected to remain soft with occasional upswings driven by:
Export demand recovery,
Seasonal tyre production cycles,
Potential upstream cost increases.

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Europe

Q3 2025 Price Dynamics

Germany and regional Europe showed the steepest decline:

20.24% QoQ fall in the Carbon Black Price Index.
Average price: USD 1103.33/MT FD Germany.
Sellers offered discounts to clear excess inventories.
Downstream tyre manufacturing remained subdued.
Import competition intensified from APAC and Eastern Europe.

Why Prices Changed in September 2025

Weak tyre and rubber demand reduced offtake.
Softer gas and coal tar prices lowered production costs.
Import parity pressure from cheaper overseas suppliers.
Port and rail congestion caused delays but did not tighten supply.

Q2 2025 Recap

Price Index (FD Northwest Europe) fell 1.9% QoQ.
Ended near USD 1,740/tonne.
Weak OEM tyre offtake and excess imports pressured prices.

Why Prices Fell in July 2025

High coal tar inventories weighed on margins.
Eastern European imports increased availability.
Automotive output in Germany lagged.
Exporters rerouted excess to Turkey and North Africa.

Q1 2025 Review

Prices ranged USD 1430-1470/MT FD Hamburg.
Weak demand early in quarter.
Energy costs stayed high, supporting prices.
Replacement and agricultural tyre segments provided limited relief.
Logistics delays added minor cost pressure.

Q4 2024 Historical Insight

Prices declined due to:
High stocks,
Lower freight costs,
Cheaper Indian imports.
Energy price volatility affected production costs.
Mixed automotive market limited demand.

Supply & Logistics Conditions

Ample domestic supplies.
Rail and port delays intermittently affected throughput.
Import competition remained a major price suppressor.
Procurement Behavior

Buyers delayed purchases expecting lower prices.
Preference for low-cost import parcels.
Inventory liquidation by distributors created short-term oversupply.
Outlook

Prices likely to stay subdued unless:
Kiln outages occur,
Significant restocking is triggered,
Energy costs rebound.
Production & Cost Structure Insights

Across regions, cost structures were shaped by:

Feedstock Inputs

Coal tar (primary feedstock for furnace black): prices moderated in Europe and APAC.
Natural gas: fluctuated significantly in North America and Europe.
Crude oil: softened in Q3 2025 but impacted mid-2025 cost structure significantly.
Energy Costs

Q1-Q2 2025 saw elevated energy prices globally.
Q3 2025 reflected softening oil and stable gas in some markets.
Operating Rates

Producers maintained high utilization despite soft demand, raising inventory burdens.
Freight & Logistics

Soft freight rates reduced landed cost pressures.
Port congestion (APAC) created intermittent supply tightness.
Procurement Outlook

Short-Term (Q4 2025)

Prices expected to remain range-bound.

Buyers may benefit from:

Abundant inventories,
Weak demand cycles,
Lower freight rates,
Competitive import offers.

Medium-Term (2026)

Potential upside risks include:
Energy market volatility,
Geopolitical disruptions affecting shipping,
Seasonal tyre demand recovery,
Reduced operating rates if margins stay compressed.

Recommended Procurement Strategy

Maintain flexible, staggered buying.
Monitor feedstock markets closely.
Leverage global import opportunities.
Use index-linked contracts to mitigate volatility.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What caused Carbon Black prices to decline in major regions during Q3 2025?
Weak tyre demand, excess inventories, softer feedstock costs, and stable supply contributed to broad declines globally.

Why is the automotive sector so influential in Carbon Black pricing?
Tyres account for nearly 70% of Carbon Black consumption, making demand from OEM and replacement tyre markets critical.

How did freight and logistics impact pricing in 2025?
Freight normalization lowered costs, increasing import competition. However, APAC faced intermittent port delays affecting supply.

Which region experienced the sharpest price fall?
Europe saw a 20.24% QoQ decline, driven by oversupply and cheap imports.

Is any region showing price stability?
MEA saw stable, range-bound pricing due to steady imports and moderate downstream demand.

What is the outlook for early 2026?
Prices may stay moderate but sensitive to:

Energy trends,
Tyre sector recovery,
Trade restrictions or tariffs.
How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers with Real-Time Data, Forecasts & Supply-Chain Intelligence

ChemAnalyst equips procurement teams, manufacturers, and market strategists with authoritative, real-time intelligence across more than 450+ chemical and commodity markets. For Carbon Black, ChemAnalyst provides:

✔ Real-Time Price Assessments

Updated daily and weekly across global regions-spot, contract, and index-linked.

✔ Deep Market Analysis

Covering:

Demand-supply balances
Plant operating rates
Quarterly trends
Feedstock cost structures
Logistics disruptions
Inventory conditions
✔ Accurate Price Forecasts

Proprietary forecasting models consider:

Energy futures
Downstream industry outlooks
Trade patterns
Seasonal consumption cycles
Macroeconomic indicators
✔ Plant Shutdown & Turnaround Tracking

ChemAnalyst monitors:

Planned maintenance
Unplanned outages
Restart schedules
...helping buyers anticipate supply tightness or price spikes.

✔ Global On-Ground Intelligence

With teams stationed at 50+ major trading ports-including Houston, Busan, Shanghai, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Jebel Ali-ChemAnalyst delivers firsthand market validation.

✔ Procurement-Centric Tools

Our platform enables:

Benchmarking against global competitors
Cost modeling
Contract strategy optimization
Risk assessment
✔ Expert Analyst Support

Chemical engineers, economists, and industry specialists provide context behind every price movement so buyers can make confident decisions.

Conclusion

The Carbon Black market across 2024-2025 experienced significant shifts driven by supply-chain corrections, demand softening, freight normalization, and evolving global trade. While cost pressures intermittently supported prices, most regions entered 2025 with an oversupply-driven, price-sensitive environment.

As markets move into late 2025 and beyond, strategic procurement, close monitoring of feedstock dynamics, and data-backed decision-making will be essential. ChemAnalyst continues to lead the industry by offering the most comprehensive, real-time insights to help stakeholders stay informed, competitive, and resilient in a rapidly evolving market landscape.

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This release was published on openPR.