Track Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Report Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market has experienced significant volatility across global regions through 2024 and 2025, influenced by shifting trade policies, upstream feedstock movements, logistics disruptions, and seasonal agricultural cycles. As of Q3 2025, DAP prices registered strong quarter-over-quarter gains across major markets-18.6% in North America, 13.50% in APAC, and 13.99% in Europe-primarily driven by supply restrictions, tariffs, logistical constraints, and firm feedstock prices for sulfur and phosphoric acid.

While demand conditions remained steady in most regions due to autumn restocking cycles, availability tightened due to lower imports, constrained export flows from China and Russia, port congestion in Europe and APAC, and weather-driven challenges such as the Amazon River drought. These factors collectively bolstered price indices, supported spot market firmness, and elevated delivered costs for buyers.

Looking ahead, the DAP price forecast suggests short-term firmness driven by agricultural procurement cycles, cautious buying behavior, and elevated freight costs. However, moderate stabilization is expected once seasonal demand eases and global trade flows normalize.

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Introduction

Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) is a critical phosphorus fertilizer used across global agricultural value chains. As a widely traded commodity, DAP prices are influenced by a combination of factors including feedstock markets (phosphoric acid, phosphate rock, sulfur, and ammonia), export controls, trade tariffs, freight conditions, weather disruptions, and geopolitical developments affecting major producers like China, Morocco, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia.

From 2024 through 2025, the market has undergone pronounced fluctuations across regions. Seasonal agricultural procurement trends, restricted exports from China, input cost pressures, European port congestion, drought-related logistics disruptions in Brazil, and shifting tender-driven demand from India and Africa have played central roles in shaping DAP's global price trajectory.

This report consolidates verified market insights and provides a structured, publication-ready PR article suitable for procurement teams, investors, distributors, and fertilizer supply-chain stakeholders.

Global Price Overview

Across global markets, Q3 2025 marked a period of broad price escalation, underpinned by tightening supply, elevated freight costs, and persistent firmness in upstream inputs:

North America saw an 18.6% quarterly rise due to reduced imports, river-based logistics constraints, and higher sulfur/phosphoric acid costs.
APAC markets, led by Japan, experienced a 13.50% quarterly increase as limited Chinese exports, Moroccan tightness, and typhoon-season delays strained supply.
Europe recorded a 13.99% jump in the DAP Price Index as tariffs, constrained imports, port congestion, and rail disruptions elevated landed costs.

Global supply remained limited throughout 2025, particularly due to:

Chinese export restrictions (continuing from late 2024)
Russian export tariff measures
Lean inventories across major ports
Seasonal procurement cycles in India, Southeast Asia, and South America
Weakness in Q4 2024 transitioned into moderate recovery in Q1 2025, followed by strong price escalation into Q3 2025.

The overall sentiment for 2025 indicates:

Short-term firmness
Moderate mid-term stabilization
High sensitivity to freight, feedstock prices, and global tenders
Regional Analysis

North America

Q3 2025 Performance

DAP prices in the U.S. surged by 18.6%, driven by tightened import availability and tariff-related cost increases. The average quarterly price hit USD 765/MT, supported by stable domestic output and higher handling costs.

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Key Drivers Behind September 2025 Price Changes

Reduced imports and tariff barriers curtailed supply.
Higher sulfur and phosphoric acid costs raised production costs.
Mississippi River barge draft limits and inland freight tightness constrained product flows.
Strong seasonal restocking added marginal upward pressure.

Supply, Production & Inventory Trends

Major U.S. producers operated near full capacity.
Stable domestic output but lower import volumes from key suppliers.
Average inventories remained adequate but not enough to offset tightened import availability.

Procurement Behavior

Buyers adopted pacing strategies due to uncertainty in pricing and logistics.
Inland agricultural centers began early restocking ahead of fall application windows.
Tariff concerns encouraged forward contracting among large distributors.

Logistics & Trade-Flow Impacts

Inland river restrictions remained the most disruptive factor.
Rail freight remained stable but capacity constraints occasionally slowed deliveries.
Lower flows from Mexico and Canada increased reliance on domestic production.

Q2 & Q1 2025 Review

Q2 2025: Prices stable around USD 595/MT due to balanced availability and lack of freight volatility.
Q1 2025: Prices rallied sharply on supply constraints, tariff concerns, and pre-season agricultural stocking.

Outlook

Short-term softening is possible, but stabilization is likely as restocking supports inland demand. Prices are expected to remain within USD 590-600/MT in the near term unless major supply shocks arise.

Asia-Pacific (APAC)

Q3 2025 Performance

Japan recorded a 13.50% increase in DAP Prices under CFR Tokyo terms, reaching USD 793.33/MT. The region faced persistent tightness linked to lower Chinese exports, Morocco's restricted allocations, and seasonal procurement.

Key Drivers Behind September 2025 Price Changes

Limited Chinese exports sharply reduced regional availability.
Firm Moroccan export offers kept CFR values elevated.
Typhoon-related port disruptions in East Asia tightened vessel schedules.

Supply & Inventory Trends

Chinese port delays affected shipment timings.
Regional inventories tightened due to cooperative buying and strategic withholding.
Typhoon season increased volatility in availability.

Procurement Behavior

Seasonal autumn restocking increased buying interest.
Procurement from fertilizer blenders dipped slightly in July but strengthened later.
Buyers faced higher CFR costs but continued to secure volumes due to limited availability.

Logistics & Freight

Stable but elevated freight levels in Q3.
Weather disruptions caused vessel bunching and delivery delays.
Chinese port congestion intensified scheduling issues for exporters.

Q2 & Q1 2025 Review
Q2 2025: Minor uptick to USD 555/MT, but July saw a slight dip due to higher arrivals and weakening blender demand.
Q1 2025: A moderately bullish quarter driven by tight supply from China and seasonal agricultural demand.

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Outlook

Prices remain firm in the short term. Forecast suggests a range of USD 550-560/MT unless China lowers export volumes significantly.

Europe

Q3 2025 Performance

Germany saw a 13.99% rise in the DAP Price Index, with average prices near USD 869/MT (FD Hamburg). The increase was driven by tariff measures, constrained imports, higher freight costs, and port-related inefficiencies.

Key Drivers Behind September 2025 Price Changes

Russian export tariffs reduced low-cost material inflows.
Hamburg port congestion increased handling and inland trucking costs.
Rail disruptions and rising freight charges tightened supply and elevated delivered costs.

Supply & Production Trends

Lean inventories across Hamburg triggered forward buying.
European buyers sought alternative sources but faced rising netbacks from Morocco.
Feedstock pressures (phosphoric acid, sulfur) kept production costs elevated.

Procurement Behavior

Seasonal farm restocking occurred despite affordability challenges.
Buyers opted for staggered purchasing to mitigate cost exposure.
Limited supply flexibility led to higher premiums in prompt markets.

Logistics & Trade Flow

Port congestion slowed vessel turnarounds.
Rail freight disruptions impacted movement to inland markets.
Tariff-driven re-routing of Russian cargoes created structural supply gaps.

Q2 & Q1 2025 Review
Q2 2025: Strong gains from EUR 729 to 801/MT, driven by elevated demand and constrained imports.
Q1 2025: Prices surged over 11% due to supply shortages from Tunisia and Russia and seasonal demand.
Outlook

Moderate upside persists with sustained logistics pressures and firm feedstock costs. Expected range: EUR 830-850/MT unless import flows normalize.

Historical Quarterly Review (2024-2025)

Q4 2024

North America: Prices fell 2.39% due to weak seasonal demand and logistics issues.
APAC: Prices dropped 3.93% as off-season demand and Chinese restrictions tightened global flows.
Europe: A marginal 0.20% increase as balanced supply offset weather and demand challenges.
Brazil: Prices slipped 1.57% despite moderate demand and port congestion.
MEA: Prices increased 5.91% due to feedstock tightness and steady agricultural needs.

Q1 2025

Globally, prices rebounded from Q4 lows.
North America, APAC, Europe, and Brazil all experienced firm to bullish trends.
Tight global supply and seasonal agricultural demand drove early-year momentum.

Q2 2025

Prices stabilized in North America and APAC.
Europe remained firm due to rising logistics and input costs.
Morocco's FOB market saw steady pricing driven by consistent production.
Production & Cost Structure Insights

Key Feedstock Drivers

Phosphoric Acid: Major cost contributor; prices remained elevated globally in 2025.
Sulfur: Firm pricing in Q2-Q3 2025 raised downstream production costs.
Ammonia: Stable to weak in early 2025; slight recovery later improved margins.

Production Trends

Global output remained stable but constrained by:
Chinese export controls
Russian tariff impacts
Feedstock availability issues in Europe and MEA
Seasonal maintenance shutdowns
Cost Structure Impacts

Rising freight rates escalated delivered costs.
Elevated sulfur and phosphoric acid prices uplifted cost curves.
Seasonal weather volatility affected shipping and inland logistics.
Procurement Outlook

For 2025-2026, procurement teams should anticipate:

Short-Term

Firm to steady prices across major regions
Logistics-driven volatility during weather seasons (typhoons, droughts, winter congestion)
Tariff and export-policy impacts from China and Russia
Medium-Term

Possible stabilization if Chinese export flows normalize post-restrictions
Seasonal demand cycles in India, Brazil, and North America driving procurement timing
Continued reliance on Moroccan supply across Europe and APAC
Strategic Recommendations

Secure contracts ahead of seasonal spikes
Monitor freight conditions and river-level disruptions
Diversify supply sources where possible
Track phosphoric acid and sulfur price trends to anticipate cost shifts

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why did DAP prices rise sharply in Q3 2025 across major regions?
Due to tightened supply from tariffs, restricted Chinese exports, higher input costs, and logistics disruptions.

What is driving production cost increases in 2025?
Firm prices for sulfur, phosphoric acid, and fluctuating freight rates.

How do logistics impact DAP pricing?
Port congestion, river-level restrictions, droughts, and typhoons constrain supply flows and increase delivered costs.

What is the short-term outlook for DAP prices?
Prices are expected to remain firm with slight stabilization once seasonal demand softens.

Which regions are likely to face supply tightness?
Europe (due to tariffs), APAC (due to Chinese restrictions), and North America (due to low imports and logistics bottlenecks).

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers

ChemAnalyst empowers procurement teams with real-time price intelligence, weekly updates, and data-backed forecasts across 450+ chemicals and fertilizers, including DAP. With global analyst teams stationed in major trading hubs-Houston, Shanghai, Busan, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Jebel Ali, and New Delhi-ChemAnalyst provides:

✔ Real-time Market News & Prices

Track live DAP price movements, spot market signals, and cost-driver trends.

✔ Forecast Models

Data-driven projections help procurement teams time purchases effectively.

✔ Supply Chain Tracking

Monitor plant shutdowns, export flows, logistics disruptions, and global tenders.

✔ Expert Analysis

Chemical engineers, economists, and supply-chain specialists explain not just the "what," but the "why" behind price changes.

✔ Procurement Optimization

Strategic insights help buyers minimize cost exposure, negotiate better contracts, and mitigate supply risks.

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This release was published on openPR.