Base Oil Market Positive Long-Term Growth Outlook 2020

The global base oil market exhibits a moderate degree of concentration at the top. As per Transparency Market Research (TMR), the leading market players accounted for 59.5% of the global base oil market in 2013. The companies that were dominant in the market were ExxonMobil, Shell, SK Lubricants, Chevron, S-Oil, GS Caltex, SINOPEC, and Neste Oil. “With the global refinery sector suffering from overcapacity, there is likelihood for oil companies to aggressively foray into refining business,” said a lead TMR analyst. Therefore, the existing fragmentation will either remain at status quo or pave way for market consolidation in the future. In either scenario, the highly concentrated structure of the global base oil market is projected to maintain competition at higher degrees.

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TMR forecasts the global base oil market to reach, which exhibited a capacity of 36,614.3 kilo tones in 2014, is expected to reach 39,614.7 kilo tons in 2020. If the figures hold true, the global base oil market will exhibit a CAGR of 1.4% based on volume between 2015 and 2020. Regionally, Asia Pacific is foretold to emerge dominant in terms of base oil consumption and hold over 41% of the global market by 2020. Based on demand, the industrial oils segment will remain the leading segment. It held almost 17.3% of the market in 2014.

Rising Demand from Automotive Industry to Aid Market’s Growth

The persistently increasing demand from the automotive industry will aid in the expansion of the global base oil market. As the automotive industry, which is also a key end user of base oils, uses these oils to manufacture various lubricants, growth in the industry will subsequently create opportunities for enterprises operating in the global base oil market. The industry accounted for over 45% of the global market in 2014 hence it is considered the largest application segment in the market.

Furthermore, the market is expected to gain from stringent emission standards that has resulted into change in lubricant formulation methods as these laws emphasize more stringent carbon dioxide emission standards and improvement in fuel economy. A shift towards more stringent rules will entail the use of better quality lubricants. The increasing demand for environment-friendly lubricants has triggered change in the base oil industry. For instance, higher quality base oils are now required to pace up with the rapidly changing preference in lubricants. Besides this, the demand for lubricants is also expected to increase in response to the industrialization witnessed across developing nations. Spurred by these factors, the global base oil market will report strong growth over the course of the forecast period.

Plummeting Crude Oil Prices to Pose Threat on Market

On the flip side, the gradual shift to sour and heavy crude oil by refineries holds potential of negatively impacting the global base oil production. The market is also facing challenge from the plummeting crude oil prices. For instance, the recent shale gas boon has catapulted the U.S. at forefront of oil production. Furthermore, the U.S. could become a net exporter of crude oil from being a net importer due to the increase rate of hydraulic fracking. Up until now, the price for oil was dependent upon OPEC countries with Saudi Arabia at the lead. However, with the U.S. emerging at fore, there is significant over supply of oil which consequently reduces its price, thereby having an adverse impact on the global base oil market.

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Nevertheless, the market is expected to witness opportunities as the advent of gas-to-liquid technology fuels the supply of pure and efficient base oils at competitive prices.

This review is based on a TMR report, titled “Base Oil Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2015 - 2020.”

The report segments the global base oil market as:

Global Base Oil Market: Product Analysis

Group I
SN150
BS150
SN500
Others

Group II
150N
500N
600N
Others

Group III
2cSt
4cSt
6cSt
8cSt
Others

Global Base Oil Market: Application Analysis

Automotive Oils
Industrial Oils
Process Oils
Metalworking Fluids
Hydraulic Oils
Others

Global Base Oil Market: Regional Analysis

North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Central & South America
Middle East & Africa

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