Automotive Oil Market Outlook 2025 to 2035 Growth Insights with Indian Oil Corporation Ltd., FUCHS Petrolub SE, Valvoline Inc., Chevron Corporation, TotalEnergies SE, BP p.l.c. (Castrol), ExxonMobil Corporation, and Shell plc

The global automotive oil market is set for steady expansion, with its valuation projected to climb from USD 56.85 billion in 2025 to USD 73.49 billion by 2035, reflecting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.6% over the forecast period. This growth is being reshaped by a confluence of factors, including the accelerating transition towards electric vehicles (EVs), stringent decarbonization pledges, and advancements in lubrication technology.

The United States is anticipated to remain the most lucrative market in 2025, buoyed by its extensive vehicle parc, rigorous GF-6 fuel-economy norms, and a high uptake of premium synthetic lubricants. Conversely, India is poised to emerge as the fastest-growing national market from 2025 to 2035. This surge is attributed to the implementation of BS-VI regulations, rapidly increasing vehicle ownership, and the formalization of the aftermarket, which collectively accelerate demand for synthetic and semi-synthetic engine oils.

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Across workshops and assembly lines, the automotive oil landscape is undergoing profound changes. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are increasingly factory-filling vehicles with low-viscosity 0W-20 and 5W-30 synthetics to meet ambitious CO2 emission targets. Simultaneously, fleet operators are adopting IoT oil-health sensors to enable predictive drain cycles, optimizing maintenance and extending oil life.

Key Market Segments Driving Growth:

• Semi-synthetic Oils to Lead Growth by Grade: While mineral oils maintain bulk volumes, semi-synthetic blends (Group III mineral + PAO/ester) are hitting a sweet spot of price-performance. They offer up to 2% fuel-economy savings for fleets upgrading from monograde mineral lubricants without the full-synthetic premium. This segment is projected to achieve a CAGR of 3.1% from 2025 to 2035, driven by rising adoption in emission-compliant regions like India, ASEAN, and Latin America.

• Alternative-Fuel Powertrains Post Highest CAGR: Diesel engine oils still command a significant value share, but the fastest expansion is anticipated from alternative-fuel oils (CNG/LNG, hybrid ICE, and dedicated e-transmission & e-axle fluids). This demand is fueled by urban clean-air mandates, tax incentives for gas fleets, and the surging global EV stock, projected to exceed 200 million units by 2030, necessitating low-conductivity, oxidation-resistant coolants and gear oils. This segment is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.2%.

• Two-Wheeler Lubricants Fastest Growing by Application: While passenger vehicle oils remain the largest revenue pool, the two-wheeler segment is the standout performer, projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1%. This is bolstered by booming scooter and motorcycle ownership across India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Africa, coupled with OEM pushes towards fuel-saving grades and performance-oriented bikes, driving higher per-unit oil expenditures.

Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook:

The global automotive oil market is highly fragmented, with key players vying for market share through innovation, strategic alliances, and geographical expansion. Industry giants such as Shell plc, ExxonMobil Corporation, BP p.l.c. (Castrol), TotalEnergies SE, Chevron Corporation, and Valvoline Inc., along with specialized players like FUCHS Petrolub SE and PETRONAS Lubricants International, are at the forefront. These companies are investing heavily in developing low-viscosity, fuel-efficient, and EV-compatible lubricants that meet increasingly stringent global emission standards.

According to a recent FMI survey, 72% of stakeholders reported growing demand for low-viscosity, high-performance oils, and 78% emphasized meeting environmental sustainability regulations. Over 50% of lubricant manufacturers are actively developing specialized EV lubricants, indicating a strong industry adaptation to shifting dynamics. The survey also highlighted a consensus on the growing role of sustainability and the continued presence of ICE lubricants alongside emerging EV lubrication solutions.

Looking ahead, the automotive oil market is set to pivot toward closed-loop, carbon-accounted lubrication ecosystems. By 2030, cloud algorithms are expected to facilitate on-site additive top-ups, extending drain intervals significantly. Bio-based and waste-oil-derived base stocks are projected to triple their market share as OEMs intensify efforts to cut Scope 3 emissions. Vendors that bundle carbon-tracking dashboards, localized re-refining, and EV-specific thermal fluids are forecast to capture outsized market share through 2035.

Key Segments

By Grade:
The industry is segmented into mineral, synthetic and semi-synthetic

By Engine Type:
It is fragmented into diesel, petrol and alternative fuel

By Application:
The sector is segmented into passenger vehicle, heavy commercial vehicle, light commercial vehicle and two wheelers

By Region:
It is fragmented into North America, Latin America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia & Pacific and Middle East & Africa.

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This release was published on openPR.