European Football Championship 2008: Strike Force

Luca Toni is the hottest striker in Europe – at least according to the Castrol Performance Index. But how, precisely, did he get there…?

Take a peak at the top goalscorers in qualifying for Euro 2008 and you won’t find the name Luca Toni in the top 10. Neither will you find Toni’s Italian team-mate Antonio di Natale. The Italian duo is, however, first and third in the Castrol Performance Index respectively: Toni, who plays for Bayern Munchen, is on a massive 4058 points, while Udinese hitman Natale has amassed a total of 2885.

Among the players going to this year’s Euro 2008 finals, the highest and joint second-highest goalscorers in qualifying were Poland’s Ebu Smolarek (with nine goals) and German front man Lukas Podolski (on eight). But both trail Toni by miles in the Castrol Performance Index rankings. And the reason for that? The CPI is a complex system which doesn’t just take goals and assists into consideration. Instead it works out the probability of scoring in a given situation, and awards points for more complex goals and effective team play.

Poachers vs piledrivers

Some strikers – such as Netherlands front man Ruud van Nistelrooy – are considered poachers. At Manchester United, in line with the style of the Premier League, almost all of his goals were scored from inside the box. In La Liga, however, even the most clinical of hitmen is required to collect possession deeper, and since switching to Real Madrid the Dutchman is now scoring goals from everywhere. Such a transition is perfect fodder for the Castrol Performance Index, which not only measures goals, but also the probability of them occurring. Where was it scored from? What part of the goal was it scored in? What chance did the goalkeeper have of saving it? Every element is calculated, and points are then allocated accordingly with tougher goals being rewarded with more CPI Points

The goal which earned Toni a massive 936 points, illustrates the system perfectly. Playing against Scotland, the Italian found the net with a header from a flighted free-kick. The probability of the cross finding Toni, and also of him then beating his markers and finding the far corner of the net to beat the goalkeeper, was very low, so the points reward was high. Compare that to his second goal in the same game, another header, but this time the cross came from a wider position, increasing the chances of it finding its target. Additionally, Toni was unmarked to head home from close range, and he directed the ball closer towards the middle of the goal: result – 613 points.

Luk of the draw

Podolski, who with 2274 points occupies a modest fifth place in the CPI rankings, scored two of his eight qualifying goals against Slovakia, considered weak opposition: his points were subsequently lower than they would have been against a team deemed more of a test. Moreover, one of the German’s two strikes resulted from a pull-back from the right which he fired home from inside the six-yard box, the ball squeezing underneath the keeper’s feet: close-range, and with the keeper partly to blame, it therefore warranted just 560 points.

When it comes to goals the old adage says they all count, but when it comes to the CPI standings, some just count more than others…

For more news on the European Football Championship 2008 please visit http://www.castrolindex.com

Motor Oil and Lubricants Castrol UK and Ireland
Castrol UK Ltd, Wakefield House, Pipers Way, Swindon
SN3 1RE United Kingdom
http://www.castrol.co.uk
Press contact: Caroline Topping
Phone: +44 (1793) 452781
eMail: Caroline.topping@uk.bp.com

Castrol is the world's leading specialist provider of lubricant products. Most people know Castrol oil for vehicles such as car oil, engine oil and synthetic oil as well as motorcycle oil. But there's not just Castrol motor oil, we also produce lubricants for vehicles in transport and construction industries, such as heavy goods vehicles, buses and earth moving machinery. Castrol UK feature the brands EDGE, Magnatec, GTX, SLX Professional, Elixion, Enduron and Tection among others.

This release was published on openPR.