Worldwide cellulosic ethanol production in 2020 at least 16.5 billion gallons
Based on currently proposed and signed legislation, the United States would account for over 63.9% of that market, while the EU and China would account for 10.4 and 11.5% respectively. Although Brazil doesn’t have any official legislation on cellulosic ethanol, it is included based on UNICA estimations of market penetration, which amount to around 2.1 billion gallons (12.9%) in 2020. Japan would account for only 1.3% based on currently proposed legislation.
It is important to note that some of the leading organizations in the industry expect significant market penetration beyond currently approved and proposed legislation. Based on complex models for market penetration, Syngenta and McKinsey project a global market for cellulosic ethanol of 20- 25 and 30-35 billion gallons respectively. In its basic scenario Syngenta presumes that cellulosic ethanol will gain momentum as of 2015, and the entire biofuels market to grow at 14% per annum. In its optimistic scenario, it assumes an early technology breakthrough in cellulosic ethanol, resulting in a global market of 45 billion gallons.
The legislation-based analysis is part of the Ethanol Statistics – Monthly Market Review; a new publication in the ethanol industry, launched this March.
Besides a discussion of the legislative developments by region, the economics of cellulosic ethanol are also analyzed, in addition to a discussion of potential funding gaps in the product development phase. Final feature of the analysis section is a world wide cellulosic ethanol plant list, sorted by region.
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