Stefan Kühn, economist - "China will soon have reached its peak"

Stefan Kühn, economist and former board member of AUTARK AG, analyses and interprets the opinion of Prof. Herfried Münkler.

Prof Herfried Münkler has made a provocative prediction, claiming that China will soon have reached its peak. This assessment is based on various factors, including China's shrinking and ageing population, which could lead to a loss of dynamism. In addition, Münkler warns of internal problems, especially if the Communist Party leadership decides to act within the existing system.

A central point in Münkler's analysis is that a Chinese leadership acting within the existing system cannot claim global dominance. This leads to the assumption that China will lose influence in the long term despite its current strength. In this context, Münkler points out that the real danger comes more from already dominant powers whose dominance is waning - an example he links to current developments in the USA.

The idea of a possible pre-emptive war by a shrinking power, as the USA currently is, is worrying. However, Münkler emphasises the potentially catastrophic consequences of such a military conflict between dominant powers, which could inevitably lead to a nuclear war in which there would be no winners, only losers.

Münkler outlines an alternative strategy for the USA, namely the decoupling of its economy from China. However, according to Münkler, this could lead to a kind of chain reaction in which the USA could also try to force Europe down this path. The possible consequence would be a global economic crisis if the European countries give in to the pressure and also decouple themselves from the Chinese economy.

Overall, Münkler's thesis raises numerous complex questions that not only concern geopolitical, but also economic and security policy implications. The possible developments between China and the US could have a significant impact not only on the international order, but also on global stability. It is therefore crucial to closely monitor further developments and understand the implications of these predictions on the international stage.

In a conclusion to Prof Herfried Münkler's assessment of China's supposed peak, economist Stefan Kühn points out the complex challenges and uncertainties arising from this analysis. Kühn emphasises the urgency of keeping a close eye on developments between China and the USA and the possible consequences for the global economy. The possible effects of a pre-emptive war or a decoupling of economic relations between the USA, China and possibly also Europe require precise analysis and strategic consideration. The economist therefore emphasises the need to delve deeper into these complex geopolitical issues in order to better understand possible scenarios and effects and to be able to react appropriately.

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Stefan Kühn is an economist and has been studying macroeconomic change and the interdependence of markets and political interventions in companies, society and the money market for several years. He argues that macroeconomic Keynesian and neo-Keynesian models generally depict completely interdependent economic systems that cannot be solved recursively, but only simultaneously. He does not limit himself to purely scientific methods, but draws his insights from his many years of experience as an entrepreneur, former member of the AUTARK Group Board of Directors and consultant to the management of predominantly listed companies.

This release was published on openPR.