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More capital investments needed for the Indonesian telecom sector finds Idem Est Research

06-02-2023 09:22 AM CET | Media & Telecommunications

Press release from: Idem Est Research

Indonesia Telecom Industry Market Report forecasts 418m mobile and fixed broadband subscribers by 2030

Indonesia Telecom Industry Market Report forecasts 418m mobile and fixed broadband subscribers by 2030

NEWS PROVIDED BY
Idem Est Research & Advisory
1 June 2023, 16:00 AEST
Indonesia Telecom Industry Market Report forecasts 418m mobile and fixed broadband subscribers by 2030

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
More capital investments are needed for the Indonesian telecom sector, as revealed by Idem Est Research, a leading provider of TMT market intelligence and advisory. Today, the company announces its in-depth analysis of the dynamic and burgeoning telecommunications market in Indonesia. This report aims to shed light on the rapid growth, emerging trends, and future prospects of the telecom industry in the country.

By 2030, 5G mobile subscribers in Indonesia are projected to represent 76% of all subscriptions, with major players like IOH and Telkomsel already offering 5G services. The Indonesian market is expected to have nearly 300 million 5G subscribers by 2030.

The telecom market in Indonesia is mobile-centric, with four major network operators and a dominant fixed-line provider. The country's strong economic fundamentals position it as one of the fastest-growing telecom markets globally. Both mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions are driving growth, but more investments are needed to accelerate FTTH (Fiber to the Home) take-up. Indonesia has a vibrant independent mobile tower market with large local and foreign investors. The same needs to happen with FTTH, and the government should facilitate access rights and subsidize uneconomic areas outside of Java, Bali, and Sumatra islands. Idem Est Research estimates that another 20 million premises are yet to receive FTTH, requiring an estimated USD 8 billion in investments.

Lack of spectrum in the low and mid bands is hampering upgrade efforts to 4G. The government needs to accelerate the release of spectrum in the 700MHz and 3500Mhz bands and also require operators to accelerate the 3G shutdown across all operators. Idem Est Research predicts strong overall growth in the telecoms market until 2030, with more investments required outside of Java and the nationwide phasing out of 3G.
1. Capital expenditure investments in expanding 4G coverage and capacity are a priority for telecommunications operators. The report projects an average Capex spending growth of 4.4% between 2023 and 2030. Key findings from Idem Est Research's analysis include:
2. Rapid Growth: The Indonesian telecom market has experienced remarkable growth, with an average annual increase in revenue of over 5.2% in the past five years. This growth is expected to continue as more rural areas gain access to reliable and affordable mobile services.
3. Data Dominance: The increasing popularity of social media platforms, online gaming, and streaming services has fueled the demand for data services in the country. Idem Est Research recorded over 365 million mobile and fixed broadband subscribers.
4. Infrastructure: Idem Est Research indicates that the Indonesian telecom operators should invest more heavily in both fiber and tower infrastructure, closer to 0.4% to 0.5% of GDP, to lift the country into the top half rankings in terms of speed, coverage, and capacity.
5. Government Support: The Indonesian government has implemented various initiatives to foster the growth of the telecom sector, but to set up a reporting framework that is measurable and benchmarked, it also needs to release more spectrum. These measures should facilitate infrastructure development, encourage investment, and improve connectivity in underserved areas outside of Java.
6. Future Prospects: Idem Est Research's analysis forecasts a positive outlook for the Indonesian telecom market despite a tapering Capex cycle. Telecom operators should focus on lower-income households for fixed broadband. Additionally, progress in 5G rollout, "fiberization" of mobile towers, increased focus on cybersecurity, and the integration of artificial intelligence are anticipated to shape the industry's future landscape.

"Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscribers will reach 397 million by 2030, while the fixed broadband market penetration continues to remain below that of neighboring countries. The telecommunications industry is expected to maintain revenue growth momentum, with an average growth rate of 3.4% from 2023 to 2030," says Landry Fevre, Director of Idem Est Research & Advisory.

Idem Est Research and Advisory's report on the Indonesia telecom market serves as a valuable resource for industry stakeholders, investors, and policymakers looking to gain a comprehensive understanding of the sector. The analysis highlights the immense potential and opportunities for both local and international players to contribute to the development and innovation of the telecom industry in Indonesia.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS AUSTRALIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:
ABS-CBN, Unity Digital Infrastructure, ALT Global Solutions Inc., American Tower, Bayantel, Chelsea Logistics and Infrastructure Holdings Corp., Converge ICT, DITO Telecommunity, edotco, Edgepoint, Frontier Tower Associates, Globe Telecom, Miescor, Mislatel, Now Corp, Phil Tower, PLDT, Radius Telecom, Royal Cable, Sky Cable, Sky Broadband, Udenna

Download the full report: https://idemest.com/reports/indonesia-telecoms-report-mobile-broadband-market-industry-analysis/

Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report - TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Key Statistics
1.1 Indonesia's Population
1.2 Indonesia's Economy
1.3 Indonesia's GDP

2 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2016-2030
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2016-2030
2.3 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2022-2030
2.4 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2016-2030
2.4.1 Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
2.4.2 Capex to Revenue Benchmark
2.4.3 Capex to GDP Benchmark
2.4.4 Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2020-2030

3 Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1 Telkom Indonesia Profile
3.1.1 Telkom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.1.2 Telkomsel
3.2 Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison Profile
3.2.1 Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.2.2 Tri Indonesia (Historical Only)
3.2.3 Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3 XL Axiata
3.3.1 XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3.2 Link Net
3.3.3 Link Net Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Mix
3.4 Smartfren Profile
3.4.1 Smartfren Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Mix
3.5 Other Players Profile
3.5.1 MNC Vision
3.5.2 BizNet

4 Mobile Market
4.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.1.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
4.1.2 Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2016-2023
4.1.3 Indonesia Smartphone Share, 2023
4.1.4 Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
4.1.5 Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
4.2 Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.2.1 Historical Mobile Revenue, 2016-2022
4.2.1 Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2016-2022
4.2.2 Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
4.2.3 Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2016-2022
4.3 Spectrum Holdings
4.3.1 5G Development and Launches
4.3.2 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.3.3 Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.4 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.5 Mobile Speed Tests
4.5.1 Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.5.2 OpenSignal
4.6 Internet of Things (IoT)

5 Broadband Market
5.1 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
5.2 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030

6 Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
6.1 Fixed Digital Infrastructure
6.1.1 Palapa Ring Completed
6.1.2 FTTH - 20m premises to go
6.1.3 Submarine Cables

7 Indonesia Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
7.1 Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2022
7.1.1 Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Overview
7.1.2 Indonesia Telecom Towers Background
7.2 Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
7.3 Indonesia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
7.3.1 Indonesia Telecom Towers and Rooftops, Revenue, Penetration Forecast, 2022-2030
7.3.2 Regulatory Considerations
7.4 Mitratel Profile
7.4.1 Mitratel Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.5 Tower bersama Profile
7.5.1 Tower Bersama Revenue, EBITDA and Towers, 2016 - 2022
7.5.2 Tower Bersama Key Performance Indicators
7.6 Protelindo Profile
7.6.1 Protelindo Revenue, EBITDA and Towers, 2016 - 2022
7.6.2 Protelindo Key Performance Indicators
7.6.3 STP Telecom Profile (Now Protelindo)
7.6.4 STP Towers Key Performance Indicators (Historical, now Protelindo)
7.7 Centratama Menara Profile
7.7.1 Centratama Menara Revenue, EBITDA and Tower Statistics, 2016 - 2022
7.7.2 Centratama Menara Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.8 IBS Towers Profile
7.8.1 IBS Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.9 Bali Tower Telecom Profile
7.9.1 Bali Tower Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.10 Tower Density Benchmark

8 Thematics / Opportunities
8.1 Consolidation Opportunities
8.2 Diversification Opportunities
8.3 New Telecoms Operating Model
8.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
8.4 5G Developments
8.4.1 5G Overview
8.4.2 5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
8.4.3 5G OpenRAN
8.4.4 Beyond 5G and Towards 6G

9 Telco Transaction Database

10 Methodology

11 Copyright Notice

Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report - List of Figures

Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Indonesia
Figure 2 -Revenue Profile Historical Mix (IDR bn), 2016 - 2022
Figure 3 - Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022
Figure 4 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2022
Figure 5 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2022
Figure 6 - Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (IDR tn), 2022-2030
Figure 7 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2016-2022
Figure 8 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2016-2022
Figure 9 - Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2030
Figure 10 - Telkom Indonesia Revenue Mix - 2016-2022
Figure 11 - Telkom Indonesia Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 - 2022 (IDR bn)
Figure 12 - Telkomsel Revenue Mix - 2016-2022
Figure 13 - Telkomsel Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 - 2022 (IDR bn)
Figure 14 - Indosat Revenue Mix - 2016-2022
Figure 15 - Indosat Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 - 2022 (IDR bn)
Figure 16 - Tri Indonesia Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2015-2021
Figure 17 - XL Axiata Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2016-2022
Figure 19 - Link Net Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2016-2022
Figure 18 - Smartfren Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2016-2022
Figure 20 - Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 21 - Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 22 - Mobile Net Adds (000's) Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 23 - Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 24 - Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 25 - Mobile Revenue Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 26 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast (IDR trillion), 2022-2030
Figure 27 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2016-2030
Figure 28 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2022
Figure 29 -Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2022
Figure 30 - Data Pricing Trends in the Asia Pacific (USD per GB per month), 2017-2022
Figure 31 - Spectrum available for IoT in Indonesia
Figure 32 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 33 - Indonesia Net-Adds (000's) by Operators, 2016-2022
Figure 34 - Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 35 - Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Share, 2022
Figure 36 - Indonesia Telecom Towers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 37 - Subscribers per Tower, 2022
Figure 38 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 39 - 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 40 - Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 41 - 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 42 - Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 43 - Telecom Infra Project - OpenRAN Vision

Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report - List of Tables

Table 1 - Indonesia - Key Statistics
Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2016-2022
Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022-2030
Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
Table 5 - Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 6 - Historical Telkom Revenue & EBITDA, 2016-2022
Table 7 - Telkomsel Revenue & EBITDA, 2016-2022
Table 8 - Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2022
Table 9 - Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2015-2021
Table 10 - XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2022
Table 12 - Link Net Revenue Segments
Table 11 - Smartfren Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2022
Table 13 - Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2016-2023
Table 14 -Indonesia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 15 - Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 16 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2016-2022
Table 17 - Indonesia Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 18 - Historical Mobile ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 19 - Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
Table 20 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 21 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2016-2022
Table 22 - Historical Broadband ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 23 - Indonesia Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 24 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Indonesia
Table 25 - Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2022
Table 26 - Indonesia Telecom Towers Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 27 - Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison (1 of 2)
Table 28 - Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison (2 of 2)
Table 29 - Indonesia Telecom Towers Transaction Database, 2008-2023
Table 30 - Indonesia Telecom Towers and Rooftops, Revenue, Mobile Subscribers, Penetration & ARPU Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 31 - Mitratel Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 32 - Historical Tower Bersama Revenue, EBITDA and Tower Statistics, 2016-2022
Table 33 - Tower Bersama Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 34 - Historical Protelindo Revenue, EBITDA and Tower Statistics, 2016-2022
Table 35 - Protelindo Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 36 - STP Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2020 (Historical)
Table 37 - Historical Centratama Menara Revenue, EBITDA and Tower Statistics, 2016-2022
Table 38 - Centratama Menara Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 39 - IBS Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 40 - Bali Tower Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 41 - Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 42 - Telco Transaction Database, 2008-2023

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS INDONESIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:
BizNet, Centratama, DigitalBridge, EdgePoint, FiberStar, Gihon, GoJek, IBS Towers, IndiHome, Indosat, Kabel MNC Play, Link Net, Mitratel, MyRepublic, Protelindo, Smartfren, Telkom, Telkomsel, Tokopedia, Tower Bersama, Tri Indonesia, XL Axiata

Idem Est Research
Landry Fevre
Woonona Rd
Northbridge, NSW 2063
Australia
For media inquiries, please contact:
Landry Fevre
landry@idemest.com

About Idem Est Research Advisory
Idem Est Research and Advisory is a boutique telecommunications and digital infrastructure market research and advisory. Idem Est Research provides leading telecoms research helping our clients stay updated on the latest telecoms sector and digital infrastructure developments. The reports provide analyses of mobile and broadband markets, capital expenditure, forecasts, key telecom trends and thematic such as 5G and telecoms digital infrastructure, as well as other statistics of the telco industry.
Our independent approach allows us to place the trends and drivers fully into context and analyse the industry from different, unbiased perspectives. Alongside the facts and figures, Idem Est Research draws on three decades of experience to provide incisive commentary and analysis. This brings visibility to the business drivers, challenges, decision-making and future direction of the telecoms sector.
To learn more, visit www.idemest.com.
Contact Information:
For media inquiries, please contact:
Landry Fevre
landry@idemest.com
SOURCE: Idem Est Research & Advisory

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