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Australia's Telecom Market Swings from Fixed Broadband to Mobile as Nation Awaits Full-Fibre Upgrade

03-15-2023 03:08 PM CET | Media & Telecommunications

Press release from: Idem Est Research

Australia Telecom Industry Market Report forecasts 55m mobile and fixed broadband subscribers by 2030

Australia Telecom Industry Market Report forecasts 55m mobile and fixed broadband subscribers by 2030

Idem Est Research and Advisory, a boutique firm specialising in telecommunications and digital infrastructure market research and advisory has released a new research report titled Australia Telecom Industry, 2023-2030.

The report states that the growth of Australia's telecommunications market is shifting towards mobile, after five years of significant growth in the fixed broadband market. Despite its monopoly status, NBN customer growth came to a stop in 2022 and challengers are emerging across the technology spectrum with intensifying competition in low-speed brownfield areas, greenfield fibre, satellite and fixed wireless access. Starting from 2023, NBN will increase its Capex spending to bring gigabit speeds to 90% of its fixed-line footprint. Meanwhile, telcos around the globe are already launching multi-gigabit offerings up to 10Gbps.

"With 5G a reality now in Australia, mobile telco operators can now do an arbitrage of NBN speeds and thus offer a faster service over 5G than NBN at an equivalent price for some segments of the market and some geographies," says Landry Fevre, Idem Est Research & Advisory's Director.

"As a result, Australia is now in the unfortunate position of being the only country in the developed world with a higher average mobile speed compared to fixed".

Mobile network operators face limited competitive pressure after the market shifted to unlimited voice and text. Data allowance is now the sole offering differentiator. Operators are now indexing their pricing above inflation allowing them to increase pricing without delivering more value.

"Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscribers will reach 44 million by 2030 while the fixed broadband market to grow to half the pace of the last six years. Despite this, the telecommunications industry is expected to maintain revenue growth momentum, with an average growth rate of 1.8% from 2023 to 2030", says Landry Fevre, Idem Est Research & Advisory's Director.

Investments in the telecoms sector bottomed out in 2021 and telecommunications service providers are expected to maintain capital expenditure growth momentum in 2023-30, to an average rate of 1.8% by 2030.

Telecommunications infrastructure assets, such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cables and fibre infrastructure, are attracting high valuation multiples from infrastructure funds, pension funds, and government funds, offering investment opportunities.

Idem Est Research expects another wave of consolidation in Australia, post-NBN rollout, as margins get squeezed further.

"Some market players outside the telco market are seeking growth by exploring ways to increase their scope of products and services offerings. The report outlines examples of some newcomers branching out by reselling broadband access services as a churn reduction strategy and the increasing consumers' share of wallet," added Landry Fevre

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS AUSTRALIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:
AGL, Amplitel, ATN, Aussie Broadband, Exetel, Foxtel, Indara, NBN, Optus, Superloop, Telstra, TPG, Uniti Group, Vodafone, Vocus

Download the full report: https://idemest.com/reports/australia-telecom-market-report-mobile-broadband-market-industry-analysis/

Australia Telecoms Industry Report - TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Key Statistics
1.1 Australia's Population
1.2 Australia's Economy
1.3 Australia's GDP

2 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2016-2030
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Australia's Race to Lead in 5G and Beyond
2.3 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2016-2022
2.4 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2022-2030
2.5 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2016-2030
2.5.1 Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
2.5.2 Capex to Revenue Benchmark
2.5.3 Capex to GDP Benchmark
2.5.4 Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2022-2030

3 Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1 Telstra Profile
3.1.1 Telstra Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.1.2 Telstra InfraCo
3.2 Optus Profile
3.2.1 Optus Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3 TPG Telecom Group Profile
3.3.1 TPG Telecom Group and EBITDA Mix
3.3.2 Historical TPG Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3.3 Vodafone Profile
3.3.4 Historical Vodafone Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.4 Vocus Profile
3.4.1 Vocus Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.5 Superloop Profile
3.6 Uniti Profile
3.6.1 Uniti + Opticomm + Velocity
3.7 Aussie Broadband Profile

4 Australia Mobile market
4.1 Australia Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.1.1 Australia Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
4.1.2 Australia Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2016-2022
4.1.3 Australia Smartphone Share, 2022
4.1.4 Australia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
4.1.5 Australia Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2022-2030
4.2 Australia Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.2.1 Historical Australia Mobile Revenue, 2016-2022
4.2.2 Australia Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2016-2022
4.2.3 Australia Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
4.3 Mobile Coverage
4.4 Spectrum Holdings
4.4.1 Spectrum Regulation
4.4.2 5G and Other Spectrum Auctions
4.4.3 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.4.1 Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.5 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.6 Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.1 Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.2 OpenSignal
4.7 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO)
4.8 Internet of Things (IoT)

5 Broadband Market
5.1 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
5.2 Fixed Download Data Trends
5.3 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030

6 Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
6.1 Fixed Digital Infrastructure
6.1.1 Overview of the National Broadband Network
6.1.2 NBN Scope
6.1.3 Legislative Framework for the NBN
6.1.4 Regulatory Framework
6.1.5 Wholesale Only & Uniform Pricing
6.1.6 NBN Industry Implications
6.1.7 NBN Implementation
6.1.8 NBN Financials - NBN Corporate Plan Review 2021-2024
6.1.9 NBN Market Share - 2022
6.1.10 NBN Build
6.1.11 NBN Speeds
6.1.12 NBN Speeds Mix Compared to New Zealand
6.1.13 $50bn Later and Australia is Still a Broadband Backwater
6.1.14 NBN Business Segment - Enterprise Product Threat and Opportunity
6.2 Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting
6.3 Submarine Cables

7 Australia Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
7.1 Australia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2022
7.1.1 Australia Telecom Towers Market Overview
7.1.2 Australia Telecom Towers Background
7.2 Australia Tower Competitive Landscape Comparison
7.3 Mobile Coverage
7.4 Australia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
7.4.1 Australia Telecom Towers Forecast, 2022-2030
7.4.2 Regulatory Considerations
7.5 Telstra InfraCo (Amplitel)
7.5.1 Telstra InfraCo Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.6 Optus Profile
7.6.1 Optus Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.7 Indara Digital Infrastructure Profile
7.7.1 Indara Key Performance Indicators
7.7.2 Axicom (Now Part of Indara) Profile
7.7.3 Axicom Key Performance Indicators
7.8 Waveconn Profile
7.8.1 Waveconn Key Performance Indicators
7.9 National Broadband Network (NBN) Profile
7.9.1 NBN Key Performance Indicators
7.10 BAI Communications Profile
7.10.1 BAI Communications Key Performance Indicators

8 Thematics / Opportunities
8.1 Consolidation Opportunities
8.2 Diversification Opportunities
8.3 New Telecoms Operating Model
8.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
8.4 5G Developments
8.4.1 5G Overview
8.4.2 5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
8.4.3 5G OpenRAN
8.4.4 Beyond 5G and Towards 6G

9 Telco Transactions Database

10 Methodology

11 Copyright Notice

Australia Telecoms Industry Report - List of Figures

Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Australia
Figure 2 -Revenue Profile Historical Mix (AUD m), 2016 - 2022
Figure 3 -EBITDA Profile Historical Mix (AUD m), 2016 - 2022
Figure 4 - Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022
Figure 5 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2022
Figure 6 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2022
Figure 7 - Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (AUD m), 2022-2030
Figure 8 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2016-2022
Figure 9 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2016-2022
Figure 10 - Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2030
Figure 11 - Telstra Revenue Mix - 2016-2022
Figure 12 -Telstra EBITDA Mix (AUD m) - 2016-2022
Figure 13 - Telstra Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 - 2022 (AUD m)
Figure 14 - Optus Revenue Mix - 2016-2022 (AUD m)
Figure 15 - Optus Historical Revenue Mix, 2016-2022 (AUD m)
Figure 16 - TPG Telecom Group Revenue Profile, 2019-2022
Figure 17 - TPG Telecom Group Revenue Mix - 2019-2021 (AUD m)
Figure 18 - TPG Revenue Profile, 2014-2019
Figure 19 - Vodafone Revenue Profile, 2014-2019
Figure 20 - Australia Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 21 - Australia Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 22 - Mobile Net Adds (000's) Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 23 - Australia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 24 - Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 25 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU (AUD), 2016-2030
Figure 26 - Australia Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 27 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2022
Figure 28 - Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2022
Figure 29 - Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2022
Figure 30 - MVNO Share of the Mobile Market, 2022
Figure 31 - MVNO Subscribers (k), 2016-2022
Figure 32 - Spectrum available and IoT Landscape in Australia
Figure 33 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 34 - Australia Net-Adds (000's) by Operators, 2016-2022
Figure 35 - Fixed Broadband Monthly Download Data, 2008-2022
Figure 36 - Australia Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 37 - NBN Architecture Overview
Figure 38 - NBN Corporate Plan Financials, 2010-2024
Figure 39 - NBN Corporate Plans (CP) Cash Flow Projections Comparison
Figure 40 - NBN Subscribers Share -2022
Figure 41 - Broadband Migration to NBN Nearly Completed
Figure 42 - NBN homes Passed by Technology Forecast (k)
Figure 43 - NBN Services by Speed
Figure 44 - UFB Services by Speed
Figure 45 - Ookla Speed Test Results (Mbps) - January 2023
Figure 46 - Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2022
Figure 47 - Wireless-Only Homes, 2014-2021
Figure 48 - Australia Telecom Towers Market Share, 2022
Figure 49 - Australia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 50 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 51 - 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 52 - Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 53 - 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 54 - Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 55 - Telecom Infra Project - OpenRAN Vision

Australia Telecoms Industry Report - List of Tables

Table 1 - Australia - Key Statistics
Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2016-2022
Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022-2030
Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
Table 5 - Historical Telstra Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2016-2022
Table 6 - Telstra InfraCo Asset Portfolio, 2018-2020
Table 7 - Optus Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2022
Table 8 - TPG Telecom Group Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2019-2022
Table 9 - TPG Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
Table 10 - Vodafone Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
Table 11 - Vocus Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2015-2021
Table 12 - Superloop Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2017-2022
Table 13 - Uniti & Opticom Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2018-2021
Table 14 - Aussie Broadband Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2018-2022
Table 15 - Australia Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2016-2022
Table 16 - Australia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 17 - Australia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (3G, 4G, 5G & 6G) Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 18 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2016-2022
Table 19 - Historical Mobile ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 20 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 21 - Mobile Coverage & Reach - 2022
Table 22 - Historical of Spectrum Auctions and Costs
Table 23 - Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
Table 24 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 25 - Examples of MVNOs and their Wholesale Providers
Table 26 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2016-2022
Table 27 - Historical Broadband EBITDA Margin, 2016-2022
Table 28 - Historical Broadband ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 29 - Australia Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 30 - NBN Technology Mix
Table 31 - Telstra and Optus Estimated EBITDA Margin
Table 32 - Australia Business Broadband Segmentation, 2022
Table 33 - Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2022
Table 34 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Australia
Table 35 - Australia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2022
Table 36 - Australia Telecom Towers Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 37 - Australia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
Table 38 - Mobile Coverage & Reach - 2022
Table 39 - Australia Telecom Towers, Towers per Capita, Tower Revenue, Mobile Subscribers & Penetration and ARPU Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 40 -Telstra InfraCo Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 41 -Optus Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 42 -Indara Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 43 - Axicom Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 44 - Waveconn Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 45 - NBN Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 46 - BAI Communications Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 47 - Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 48 - Telco Transaction Database, 2015-2022

Idem Est Research
Woonona Rd
Northbridge NSW 2063
Australia
Contact Information:
For media inquiries, please contact:
Landry Fevre
landry@idemest.com

About Idem Est Research Advisory
Idem Est Research and Advisory is a boutique telecommunications and digital infrastructure market research and advisory. Idem Est Research provides leading telecoms research helping our clients stay updated on the latest telecoms sector and digital infrastructure developments. The reports provide analyses of mobile and broadband markets, capital expenditure, forecasts, key telecom trends and thematic such as 5G and telecoms digital infrastructure, as well as other statistics of the telco industry.
Our independent approach allows us to place the trends and drivers fully into context and analyse the industry as a whole from different, unbiased perspectives. Alongside the facts and figures, Idem Est Research draws on three decades of experience to provide incisive commentary and analysis. This brings visibility to the business drivers, challenges, decision-making and future direction of the telecoms sector.
To learn more, visit www.idemest.com
SOURCE: Idem Est Research & Advisory

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