Political change is the hope for the US solar industry

It is not only the record audience at the Solar Power International 08 in San Diego, at the end of last year, proving the increased interest in the US solar market. But it is also the visions and current trends of the industry which indicate a sustainable positive development of the US market, despite the economical crisis and financing issues.

The solar power show was opened by a surprise guest, Californian governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, in front of high ranking guests alongside with exhibitors from around the world. But not only because of the attendance of prominence from business and politics, the attention of the whole industry is significantly growing.

The host of the Solar Power International stated, regarding the success of the fair, on the official website www.solarpowerconference.com: “2008 a Huge Success! Almost 18,000 professional attendees registered to participate in this year's conference and expo and another 5,700 members of the general public walked the show floor during our 3-hour "Public Night", bringing our grand total to more than 23,000 participants!”

The rush on the Solar Power International 08 confirms the importance the American market has gained recently. But not only the high interest demand for exhibition floors, which were fully booked, also the record audience with international industry professionals, shows the upward trend of the industry – a bright future is expected for the US market. However, is it possible to validate these assumptions with facts?

VEND consulting offers interesting results regarding that topic, based on follow-up surveys and interviews with exhibitors of the fair: About half of the participating companies are US based; the panel was completed, among others, by firms from Germany, Canada, Taiwan and China.

Considering the results, the political change in the US delivers great hope for a higher commitment in the PV sector and other alternative energies. Especially one person is linked-up with a successful future of the US solar industry: Barack Obama. As symbol for political change, Obama represents a political turnaround regarding the US solar policy. More subsidies, unified regulations as well as a long term goal of a feed-in tariff according to a European respectively German role model – that is the hope of many exhibitors and visitors of the show in San Diego. And they are having a valid point, as the new government is indeed following ambitious goals regarding the areal of renewable energies, especially photovoltaics.

During his speech “Your weekly Address”, President Barack Obama commented the topic of alternative energies: “To accelerate the creation of a clean energy economy, we will double our capacity to generate alternative sources of energy like wind, solar, and biofuels over the next three years.”

Furthermore interesting renewable policies will be implemented (www.whitehouse.gov) by the Obama government:

- Ensure 10 percent of […] electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025
- Make the U.S. a Leader on Climate Change
- Reduce […] Greenhouse Gas Emissions 80 Percent by 2050

Very positive political signals – but what is the opinion of the market players?

The exhibitors do not see the current economical crises solely as a problem; especially for renewable energies, it offers opportunities, that new technologies are strongly supported, as announced, by policy makers. A first clear sign in that direction was shown in the recently passed economic recovery act, which includes a 50 billion dollar package for alternative energies.

The overall market potential in the US is seen positive: The market will grow, according to the concordant opinion of exhibitors and visitors.
To what extend and when the US market will take off and commences to overtake the European market? To get exact answers on those questions remains difficult. But unanimously it is predicted that the US will rise to the most important photovoltaics market in the world. But it is also certain that a lot of work and effort will be required to reach that goal. A rethinking has to take place in macroeconomic, social and political areas. The solar industry itself will have to break new ground in order to reach their goals.

Additionally, further results have been generated through the analysis of the survey. A short extract is shown in the following bullet points:

- The majority of the exhibitors agreed, that the US solar market has a large growth potential, which could even be accelerated by a possible change of the US political direction.

- Moreover, it was discovered, that risks and possible mid- to long-term product problems facing the industry sector are widely unknown. The long warranty periods (up to 25 years) for solar modules, for instance, could lead to major financial and corporate image problems due to the lack of long term experiences.

However the development of important solar technologies still seems ambiguous. Surprisingly, during the Solar Conference in San Diego, some experts were of the opinion that the forecasted decline in silicon prices could have a negative impact on the market growth of thin film modules due to lower efficiency and a shrinking cost advantage. Even the scenario, that conventional modules could put thin film modules completely out of the market was mentioned by some companies. Therefore, the thesis - `Solar industry – no future for thin film modules’ - is investigated in a major part of the VEND consulting study. To which extend this thesis can be confirmed or disproved, is shown by the results of the conducted survey.

These, as well as further topics are currently investigated in the above mentioned market survey. For the results of the study and additional information regarding the area of solar power, please do not hesitate to contact Frank Muehlmann or Dr. Alexander Brem to receive a result report of the study as well as further information on our competencies in the area of solar energies.

Authors: Andreas Neumeier, Frank Mühlmann and Dr. Alexander Brem

Through a process orientated perspective, VEND consulting GmbH offers market orientated business consulting that is not only brought to the point but also implemented efficiently. The primary objective is to effectively and at the same time efficiently implement the processes that lead to the generation of sustainable competitive advantages.

Along with the development of market orientated strategies and concepts, VEND consulting GmbH uses its proactive project management to capture and restructure the therefore necessary internal processes of a company.

The brand VEND metaphorically stands for innovative techniques and methods within the fields of strategic business development, customer based management as well as process and project management.

VEND consulting
Burgschmietstraße 2-4
90419 Nuremberg
Germany

Tel. +49 (0) 911 373 000 10
Fax +49 (0) 911 373 000 29

Dr. Alexander Brem
brem@vend-consulting.com
www.vend-consulting.com

This release was published on openPR.