OpportunityAnalyzer: Dengue Vaccines - Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2020 - Event-Driven Update

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About Dengue Vaccines Market

ever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS) that have a mortality rate of 5%-15%. Because there are no marketed dengue-specific vaccines or therapeutics, current treatment strategies are limited to supportive care for those already infected with the virus, and vector control to reduce DENV transmission. The near-universal failure of these measures to curtain transmission and reduce disease burden across the global marketplace - which for the purposes of this report is comprised of Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand - has further enhanced the need for safe and effective vaccines. GlobalData expects the launch of the first dengue vaccines, led by Sanofi Pasteurs CYD-TDV and Takedas TAK-003, to revolutionize the treatment and prevention paradigm.

Highlights

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Key Questions Answered

- Based on interviews with key opinion leaders (KOLs), GlobalData has identified the major unmet needs in the dengue vaccine marketplace. Will the leading pipeline agents fulfil these unmet needs during the forecast period (2015-2020)?
- What research and development (R&D) strategies will companies leverage to compete in the future dengue vaccine marketplace?
- Which patient population(s) are most likely to be targeted for routine and catch-up immunization?
- What clinical and environmental factors are likely to influence dengue vaccine uptake in Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand? Which of these markets will experience the strongest growth from 2015-2020?

Key Findings

- GlobalData projects the dengue vaccine market in Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand to grow from $50.8m in 2015 to $486.2m in 2020, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57.1%. This rapid growth will be driven by the expected incorporation of newly-launched dengue vaccines into routine and catch-up immunization programs.
- KOLs interviewed by GlobalData expect the live-attenuated dengue vaccines - led by Sanofi Pasteurs CYD-TDV and Takedas TAK-003 - to dominate the marketplace for the duration of the forecast period.
- GlobalData anticipates that firms will increasingly turn to innovative R&D strategies, in particular the exploration of alternative approaches to early-stage clinical trial design - such as the dengue human infection model (DHIM) - in order to increase developmental efficiency, minimize upfront risk, and gain a competitive advantage over rivals.
- Domestically-supplied vaccines, most notably Butantan Institutes TV-003 in Brazil and Panacea Biotechs/Biological Es TV-003 in India, are projected to limit market growth due to their low price relative to vaccines produced by privately-held foreign companies.

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Scope

- Overview of dengue virus (DENV), including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and current disease surveillance and prevention measures.
- Topline dengue vaccine market revenue from 2015-2020. Annual cost of therapy (ACOT) and major pipeline vaccine sales in this forecast period are included.
- Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, R&D strategies, and clinical trial design for the dengue vaccine market.
- Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, synopses of innovative early-stage projects, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline vaccines. An interactive clinical and commercial analyzer tool is available.
- Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global dengue vaccine market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to buy

- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global dengue vaccine market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the dengue vaccine market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

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Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 11
1.1 List of Tables 16
1.2 List of Figures 18
2 Introduction 19
2.1 Catalyst 19
2.2 Related Reports 20
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 21
3 Disease Overview 22
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 22
3.1.1 Etiology 22
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 25
3.2 Symptoms 28
3.3 Prognosis 31
4 Epidemiology 32
4.1 Disease Background 32
4.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 32
4.3 Global Trends 35
4.3.1 Incidence and Geographic Distribution 35
4.3.2 Dengue Periodic and Seasonal Patterns 37
4.3.3 Dengue Serotypes 38
4.4 Forecast Methodology 39
4.4.1 Sources Used 41
4.4.2 Sources Not Used 44
4.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 44
4.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Dengue (2013-2023) 47
4.5.1 Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases 47
4.5.2 Sex-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases 49
4.5.3 Age-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases 51
4.5.4 Age-Standardized Incidence of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue 53
4.6 Discussion 55
4.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 55
4.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 56
4.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 57
5 Current Surveillance, Prevention, and Control Measures 58
5.1 Overview 58
5.2 Brazil 64
5.2.1 Surveillance and Diagnosis 64
5.2.2 Vector Control 65
5.2.3 Immunization Recommendations and Infrastructure 66
5.3 India 68
5.3.1 Surveillance and Diagnosis 69
5.3.2 Vector Control 69
5.3.3 Immunization Recommendations and Infrastructure 70
5.4 Mexico 72
5.4.1 Surveillance and Diagnosis 73
5.4.2 Vector Control 74
5.4.3 Immunization Recommendations and Infrastructure 75
5.5 Singapore 78
5.5.1 Surveillance and Diagnosis 78
5.5.2 Vector Control 79
5.5.3 Immunization Recommendations and Infrastructure 79
5.6 Thailand 81
5.6.1 Surveillance and Diagnosis 81
5.6.2 Vector Control 82
5.6.3 Immunization Recommendations and Infrastructure 82
6 Unmet Needs Assessment and Opportunity Analysis 85
6.1 Overview 85
6.2 Unmet Needs Analysis 87
6.2.1 Unmet Need: Safe and Efficacious Vaccines 87
6.2.2 Unmet Need: An Improved Understanding of Dengue Immunity 89
6.2.3 Unmet Need: Reliable Immunological Correlates of Protection 90
6.2.4 Unmet Need: Country-Specific Immunization Program Preparedness 90
6.2.5 Unmet Need: Upgraded Vector Control and Surveillance Infrastructures 91
6.2.6 Unmet Need: Improved Diagnostic Tools 92
6.2.7 Unmet Need: High-Quality Animal Models 93
6.3 Opportunity Analysis 94
6.3.1 Opportunity: Develop a Single-Dose Dengue Vaccine 94
6.3.2 Opportunity: Further Elucidate the Role(s) of T Cells in Dengue Immunity 95
6.3.3 Opportunity: Streamline Vaccine Development with Innovative Clinical Trial Design 96
6.3.4 Opportunity: Partner with Public Health Stakeholders to Integrate Vaccines into Multifaceted Dengue Prevention Programs 96
6.3.5 Opportunity: Establish Country-Specific Vaccine Launch Strategies 97
6.3.6 Opportunity: Leverage Diagnostics to Demonstrate Vaccine Effectiveness Post-Licensure 98

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