Global Trade Data Shows Trade Outpacing a 1.9% Slowdown Forecast

SINGAPORE, Aug. 24, 2026: The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects global merchandise trade volume growth to slow to 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, according to its March 2026 trade statistics release. But the WTO's own more recent data shows the year has so far run hotter than that forecast: global goods trade volume grew 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with trade value up 11% year-on-year, driven largely by a more than 40% surge in the value of AI-related electronics trade, the WTO reported on July 31, 2026.

The WTO has also flagged that Middle East conflict disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and related shipping corridors could weigh more heavily on trade in the second quarter, and that 2025's frontloading ahead of new tariffs is expected to fade. For import-export businesses, the gap between a strong first-quarter print and a cautious full-year forecast, with real disruption risk still ahead, makes market selection, supplier planning, and buyer targeting harder to get right from published statistics alone.

That is where shipment-level trade data comes in. Import-export records, Bill of Lading data, customs filings, HS codes, and port-level shipment data can show where demand is actually increasing, which suppliers are shipping consistently, which buyers are active, and whether competitors are shifting sourcing routes, well before those shifts show up in quarterly trade statistics.

For exporters, this supports market entry strategy: comparing demand across countries, identifying active importers, and reviewing shipment frequency to judge which markets have the strongest buyer activity. For importers, it supports supplier verification by showing whether a supplier has real export history, which markets it serves, and how consistently it ships.

Consider an electronics importer sourcing integrated circuits, the same product category driving this year's AI-related trade surge. Rather than relying on supplier claims alone, the company can use trade records to see which countries are increasing shipments, identify suppliers with a track record of repeat export activity, and check whether competitors are sourcing from the same manufacturers. That evidence can inform decisions on supplier diversification, pricing, and market entry timing.

"A forecast tells you what's supposed to happen on average. Shipment data tells you what's actually happening to your market, your suppliers, and your competitors right now," said Tom [Surname], Chief Operating Officer at TradeInt. "This year is a good example of why that gap matters: the headline number says caution, but the first-quarter data says something more specific is going on in electronics. Businesses that can see that distinction get to react to it instead of just reading about it later."

TradeInt's global trade intelligence guide explains how customs records, Bills of Lading, HS codes, shipping manifests, and import-export data are used to identify buyers and suppliers, manage risk, and track market trends in more detail.

The impact is strategic, not just informational. Businesses can validate demand before entering a market, compare supplier reliability, monitor competitor movements, and identify alternative sourcing routes. With the WTO flagging a wide gap between forecast and first-quarter reality, and real disruption risk still ahead in 2026, companies with shipment-level evidence are better positioned to act early rather than wait for the next quarterly revision.

To learn more about global trade data intelligence, visit: www.tradeint.com
To search/preview a country's import-export records, visit: www.tradeint.com/search

#05-43
60 PAYA LEBAR ROAD, SINGAPORE

TradeInt is a premier Global Trade Intelligence Platform designed to transform global import and export operations for businesses worldwide.

With TradeInt, businesses gain seamless access to accurate global trade data, comprehensive market insights, and actionable trade intelligence tailored to meet the unique challenges of international trade. Whether you're a small business or a multinational enterprise, TradeInt provides solutions to simplify and optimize your supply chain.

This release was published on openPR.