Was this ski season really a disaster for Colorado, the numbers don't lie

Image: https://www.abnewswire.com/upload/2026/04/81a7716d6376fbdb9c476511811f24bc.jpg

Colorado is having a tough year. Snowfall was down nearly 60% over the holidays, resulting in only about 11% of skiable terrain being opened in December and skier visits are down 20%. Vail resorts [https://investors.vailresorts.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vail-resorts-reports-fiscal-2025-fourth-quarter-and-full-year], the largest ski operator, is getting hit hard as seen in the stock chart. Is that the real story, look at the traffic counts through the tunnels, barely a blip the last four years, are the headlines wrong on the ski season?

What the media is saying about the Colorado ski season and what the numbers are showing

We have no doubt had a tough snow year by any metric, but does this really mean a catastrophe for ski towns? Living in the mountains, I haven't felt a substantial slowdown, but every news article I read it sounds like the sky is falling. I was not convinced so I wanted to see if I was right or if the media reports were correct.

To determine what was actually happening, I went directly to the Colorado Department of Transportation to see what the traffic counts were through the tunnel. The overwhelming majority of resorts if they are being driven to have to pass through the tunnel including Keystone, Copper Mountain, Vail, Breckenridge, Steamboat, and Aspen. The tunnel counts in theory should show a drastic decline in vehicle traffic if visitation is down drastically.

How did I determine that ski traffic is about the same in 2026?

I looked at CDOT data for 23, 24, 25 and the first two months of 2026 both on a monthly average and on a daily average basis to see if there was a huge change in traffic counts. I graphed the raw data and you can see the two graphs above and below.

If there was a huge change in behavior, we would see a huge decline in traffic volumes on I70 heading up to the mountains. Unfortunately, regardless of the dire predictions, this did not happen, we are seeing traffic about the same. Check out the chart above and the chart below. Long and short, even though ski resorts themselves have been hurt due to lower visitation, visitors are still coming to the Colorado mountains, they just might not be skiing as much. Instead they are shopping, going to the hot springs in Steamboat, snowmobiling, hiking, etc...

Image: https://www.abnewswire.com/upload/2026/04/df9d494ed7bda88ee9c2142cfddb3fac.jpg

Vail Resorts Earnings show distress in ski industry

On the flip side, Vail released current earnings, and the results were not pretty. Vail's stock price is down 50% in the past 5 years and the trend keeps getting worse.

The dramatic lack of snowfall in the Rockies "limited our ability to open terrain and negatively impacted visitation and ancillary spending for both local and destination guests during the period," Chief Executive Officer Rob Katz said in a statement [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/T8WPK8BLKPOH] Thursday.

In September, Vail predicted fiscal 2026 earnings of $842 million to $898 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

For the current season, skier visits to Vail's resorts in North America, which include properties in Colorado, Utah and British Columbia, were down 20% from a year earlier through Jan. 4. Lift revenue was down 1.8%, the company said.

Image: https://www.abnewswire.com/upload/2026/04/cd97f2f193c5b64809629f4d41209d4d.jpg

A low snow year could reshape Colorado ski real estate-explore how weaker seasons impact prices, demand, and long-term investment risk.

Ski resorts based on location will be impacted differently

The impact of a low snow year on ski resorts around Colorado will not be uniform. For example:

Drive up communities like Breckenridge, Copper, Winter Park:

Drive up resorts will see more immediate pain from a low snow year. With limited terrain less drive up traffic from Denver will come to Breckenridge, Winter Park, Copper Mountain, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, and Loveland. Without snow, many will not make the trek up to the mountains. This will also reduce a number of weekend overnights in many of these towns. The saving grace is that drive up traffic from Denver is not as profitable as out of state visitors so the true revenue impact will not be as bad as the numbers suggest.

Destination resorts like Steamboat, Vail, Aspen performed better

At least over the holidays destination resorts like Steamboat, Vail, and Aspen fared better. Many out of state visitors had planned trips and came to the various ski towns regardless of the ski conditions. Although the actual ski hills were not doing great, the various towns seemed to be average in regard to busyness which means at least over the holiday season the impacts to most businesses will not be huge even though the snow was terrible.

Is there a delayed reaction to the low snow year?

Ironically, even after a tough winter, summer bookings are up considerably: "Everything booked in January was down as far as winter arrivals go, but bookings for arrival in May are up 16%. Bookings for arrival in June are up 3%. That's people looking downfield," Foley said.

"Occupancy for the summer at this point is up just over 8% and (average daily rate) is pretty much in line with inflation, so the summer is looking strong. That may be - but we don't really know yet - a benefit of a poor snow season."

What is the impact of low snow on ski real estate?

December is typically not a big month for ski purchases, so the data is not really showing much. With that said, from what I have seen and felt in the various ski towns, there doesn't seem to be much of an impact so far. Many ski towns have evolved over the last 10 years as true year round destinations which should mitigate the impact of a low snow year.

Fortunately in almost every ski town there is limited inventory and very little if any spec building so I don't see a huge impact from a low snow year. I would watch for a stock market correction or if there is a larger real estate correction in larger metro markets to predict a downturn in ski real estate.

Nightly rentals in Drive up ski towns will hurt

Although overall ski real estate prices will not have much impact. Owners of nightly rentals especially in places like Breckenridge, Winter Park, Copper, etc... will definitely feel the sting of a low snow year. Non holiday weekends are likely down substantially as a front range skier might just come for the day as opposed to making a weekend out of it with a good snow year. I would expect bookings in many of the drive up markets to be down substantially which will hit owners cash flow hard.

Snowfall down but sky not falling on ski real estate

It has been a record low year for snowfall in Colorado ski country. Living in Colorado for almost 30 years I have never seen the snowpack so low and what has made it worse is that warm temps have melted much of the snowpack we have received.

The low snow is hitting resort corporations hard with Vail reporting visitation down 20% at many of its Rocky mountain resorts. Fortunately many of the destination visitors still came for the holidays which should minimize the revenue hit for most businesses over the December/January time frame.

Looking at the data above, tunnel traffic is not showing huge changes in traffic patterns with 2026 only down 4% from December 25 and February only down 1%

Although the snow pack has been terrible, I haven't seen this carry over to ski real estate. Most ski towns are fully built out and have become year round destinations with lots of visitation now in the Summer and fall seasons which should help minimize one bad season . My gut says that the low snowfall is a blip for real estate and will not have much lasting impact one way or another, but individual business will have far reaching impacts depending on how they are positioned in the market.

About the Author

Glen Weinberg [https://www.fairviewlending.com/staff-item/glen-weinberg/] writes based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. He is the owner of Fairview Commercial Lending [https://www.fairviewlending.com/blog/]. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics. Glen resides in Colorado, lends in Colorado, owns property in Colorado, and services loans in Colorado which provides a unique real estate prospective of what is actually happening on the ground both in Denver and throughout Colorado. My goal of this real estate blog is to provide an honest assessment of what I see happening in Colorado real estate and how it will impact real estate owners, buyers, realtors, mortgage professionals.

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