Why the CDU in Baden-Wuerttemberg squandered its sure victory

A lead of almost 10 percentage points - and in the end, the CDU still lost. What happened in the state election in Baden-Wuerttemberg reads like a textbook example of failed communication.

And it shows once again that even with the best starting conditions, you can fail if you ignore the basic rules of public relations. What went wrong here has direct parallels to your business - because gaining trust and overcoming crises are universal challenges. How 17% suddenly became 30% Let's look at the numbers: In October/November 2024, the CDU was at around 25-26%, the Greens at a meager 17%. The race seemed to be over. But on election day in March 2025, the reality was quite different: 30.4% for the Greens, 29.9% for the CDU. In terms of seats in the state parliament: a tie. Both parties won 56 seats.

How could this happen? The answer lies in two fundamental marketing and communication principles that are also crucial for your business. Sell stories - not platitudes Manuel Hagel from the CDU? Smooth, slick. No story, no rough edges, no corners. Nothing for voters to hold on to, nothing that sticks in the memory. No emotional anchor.

Cem Oezdemir, on the other hand? A living story. Kurdish-Turkish background, a maverick in his own party, campaigning with Boris Palmer (the Green rebel from Tuebingen) and with the left-wing former party leader Ricarda Lang. He embraces everyone, rubs people up the wrong way, distances himself from his federal party - and becomes popular for precisely that.

If you have the choice between an interchangeable candidate and someone with real personality and life experience, who would you rather talk to? Exactly. People buy from people - and they vote for people they trust. Especially in times of crisis, we look for consistency, reliability, someone who will get us through difficult times. Kretschmann embodied exactly that. Hagel? A smooth facade with no substance. And Cem Oezdemir? Succeeds Winfried Kretschmann as Minister President. The bloodbath a week before the election Then came the worst-case scenario: a week before the election, an eight-year-old video surfaced. In it, Manuel Hagel, then 29, talks about a visit to a school class with 13- to 16-year-old girls. One student - "a fawn-brown girl with long brown hair" - had "caught his eye." No question: this statement is completely unacceptable. But the timing was no coincidence. The video was uploaded by Green Party member of the Bundestag Dr. Zoe Mayer - one week before the election. Not three months before, not after. But exactly when it would cause maximum damage.

This is how the game works: research is done in the background, ammunition is collected. Then someone is "asked" to post something. Everyone else can be outraged and at the same time wash their hands of it. Is that fair? No. Is it reality? Absolutely. Will you use it for yourself starting today? You have to decide for yourself based on your values. But be prepared for your opponents to do so.

The crucial mistake: poor crisis communication Here comes the real scandal: Manuel Hagel completely failed in his crisis communication. Instead of clearly taking responsibility, he resorted to waffling. Instead of a clear statement, there were excuses - and then the sentence that he had "been given a slap by his wife."

Wait a minute: you want to become the prime minister of one of the most economically important federal states - and you delegate your moral education to your wife? Do you also ask your wife whether you should grant Bosch tax breaks to avoid massive job losses? The correct response would have been simple: "The video is eight years old, yes. I made that statement, that's correct. It was inappropriate, I've never said anything like that again, and it's an absolute no-go. Period." End of story. Instead: dithering, justifications, diversionary tactics. Beginner's mistakes that should not happen in this league. What you can learn from this for your business Crises happen. Mistakes happen. Old posts, old statements, old decisions can resurface. The question is never whether you will make a mistake - but how you deal with it. Do's in crisis communication: * Take responsibility: Clearly, quickly, without excuses. * Communicate briefly and concisely: No long explanations, no justifications.
* Remain human: Show that you understand why something was wrong. * Then: Shut up and move on. Don'ts: * Shift responsibility (to your spouse, your team, "the circumstances") * Ramble on and hope it blows over * Get lost in details or justify yourself The bigger picture: Trust beats gloss

What remains of this election? Cem Oezdemir managed to make up almost 17 percentage points - he nearly doubled his result. The last video may have been the icing on the cake, but the real reason for the victory lies elsewhere: he gave people the feeling: "You know me. I'll take care of you."

This is the same strategy that Angela Merkel has used successfully for years. The same principle that got Olaf Scholz elected. In uncertain times, people want reliability, not empty promises. And you can implement exactly that in your business: * Be authentic. Show your rough edges. * Tell your story. People connect with people, not with glossy facades.
* Build trust through consistency. Be there when things get tough. A bitter aftertaste One last point that often gets overlooked: the girl in the video probably never wanted to be in the spotlight. Nevertheless, she was put on display by reporters and activists--to score political points. That's not only unfair, it's deeply reprehensible.

This is also part of the reality of communication and power: sometimes people are exploited. You should keep this in mind too - and ask yourself where your own ethical boundaries lie. Conclusion: fundamentals beat luck The CDU in Baden-Wuerttemberg had everything in its hands - and squandered it. Why? Because it ignored the fundamentals: authenticity, storytelling, clear crisis communication. These are not secrets, they are PR basics. And yet even professionals with million-dollar budgets fail at them. For you, this means: invest in your story. Practice your crisis communication. Build genuine trust. Because when the storm comes - and it will come - it's not your glossy appearance that counts, but your substance.

Your takeaway: The next time an old post or an awkward statement comes back to haunt you, think of Manuel Hagel. And do better: Make a clear statement, take responsibility, period. Then you can move on--stronger than before.

Matthias Bullmahn | psychologie, die verkauft
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https://www.matthiasbullmahn.de

Herr Matthias Bullmahn
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matthias@matthiasbullmahn.com

Matthias Bullmahn is a TueV-certified expert in sales psychology and certified by renowned sales psychologist Matthias Niggehoff. As an interim manager, he brings extensive experience in international corporate structures. With his unique combination of storytelling, hormone marketing, and sales psychology, he helps companies strengthen customer loyalty and increase sales in the long term. As a co-author for Springer-Gabler-Verlag, he shares his expertise from major change and transformation processes in government agencies and (international) corporations.

His training as a negotiator, including with Gary Noesner, founder and first head of the FBI Crisis Negotiation Unit, and Nicky Perfect, former director of hostage and crisis negotiations at Scotland Yard, has given him exceptional skills in crisis communication and complex negotiations. He uses these skills to successfully advise companies in dynamic markets. Matthias is convinced that people buy from people, and supports coaches, consultants, service providers, agencies, and SMEs in positioning themselves as distinctive brands and building long-term customer relationships. Websites: https://www.matthiasbullmahn.de https://www.psychologiedieverkauft.de

This release was published on openPR.