Olive Oil Market Forecast 2026-2036: Global Market to Reach USD 20.0 Billion by 2036 at 2.9% CAGR

The global olive oil market is on a steady growth trajectory, projected to expand from USD 15.0 billion in 2026 to USD 20.0 billion by 2036, according to Future Market Insights (FMI). With a CAGR of 2.9%, the market is experiencing a structural shift as consumers increasingly demand convenience, premium quality, and lifestyle-oriented packaging beyond traditional tins.

FMI's analysis reveals that the modern buyer favors "kitchen-ready" formats, such as squeeze bottles and elegant glass packaging. Graza's strategic launch of glass bottles for its Drizzle and Sizzle lines in August 2025 exemplifies this trend, securing shelf space in premium retailers like Whole Foods and Kroger. Packaging innovations are turning olive oil from a pantry staple into a lifestyle product, prompting suppliers to invest in differentiated bottling capabilities.

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Market Overview

The olive oil market encompasses liquid fats extracted from olives, segmented by quality grades and used in cooking, dressing, and food manufacturing. Key growth drivers include a rebound in global production reducing unit costs, rising preference for Mediterranean diet staples, and packaging innovations that enhance both convenience and premium perception.

• Product Type: Refined (48.7% share) and Extra Virgin (42% share)
• End Use: Household/Retail (48% share)
• Geography: Europe dominates production; North America shows strong consumption growth

FMI analysts note that acquisitions, such as Cobram Estate's purchase of California Olive Ranch in December 2025, are reshaping the market. This consolidation creates vertically integrated supply chains capable of challenging traditional European dominance in the premium US segment.

Regional Insights

Europe: Europe remains the primary production hub, with Spain, Italy, and Greece leading output. EU production is projected to exceed 1.9 million metric tons in 2024/25, restoring supply for both domestic and export markets. Germany's market is set to grow at a 3.3% CAGR, driven by health-conscious consumers embracing the Mediterranean diet, while the UK is expected to achieve 3.0% CAGR through retail-led initiatives promoting quality and sustainability.

North America: The USA is projected to grow at 3.2% CAGR, supported by recovering imports and an emphasis on domestic "New World" blends to complement European supplies. FMI highlights that the Cobram Estate-California Olive Ranch integration will provide stable supply to major retail chains. Canada offers a stable market for cold-pressed oils and specialty products.

Asia Pacific: Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing region, fueled by urbanization and rising health awareness. India is forecasted to grow at 3.4% CAGR, driven by partnerships like the 2025 joint venture between Australian Oilseeds and Rajashri Foods. China is expected to grow at 3.1% CAGR as urban households increasingly adopt olive oil for culinary and gifting purposes. Emerging markets, including Japan and South Korea, provide additional growth opportunities.

Market Segmentation

By Product Type: Refined olive oil drives volume due to its lower price and higher smoke point, while Extra Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO) captures the value share. Premium EVOO accounted for 74.6% of extra-EU export volume in May 2025, with a unit price of €595 per 100 kg. Supply recovery in Spain, forecasted at 1.3 million metric tons in MY 2024/25, is helping stabilize prices. Health-focused campaigns, such as the France Olive and Unaprol partnership, reinforce EVOO's market positioning.

By End Use: Household and retail consumption dominates, holding 48% share in 2026. Packaging innovations, like Graza's dual-format approach, cater to both convenience and premium consumer expectations. Recovery in US household consumption post-2022/23 price spikes is expected to drive growth.

By Distribution Channel: Hypermarkets and supermarkets lead with 50% of sales, particularly for refined and standard virgin oils. Online channels are expanding for premium and artisanal brands using direct-to-consumer models. Strategic listings and private-label growth further strengthen retail penetration.

Competitive Landscape

The market is consolidating, with major players focusing on brand equity, operational agility, and sustainability. Deoleo's "EVOO-lution" strategy, Graza's glass packaging innovations, and collaborative ventures such as Australian Oilseeds and Rajashri Foods exemplify approaches to differentiate in a competitive landscape.

Recent developments include:

• Cobram Estate Olives Ltd acquisition of California Olive Ranch in December 2025 to expand US market reach and secure production diversification.
• Graza's August 2025 launch of glass bottle formats for Drizzle and Sizzle lines, targeting environmentally conscious and premium consumers.

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Strategic Recommendations

FMI advises suppliers to:

• Diversify sourcing across hemispheres to mitigate climate-related harvest risks.
• Invest in sustainable certification to meet retailer mandates and consumer expectations.
• Develop dual-format packaging strategies to maximize usage occasions and consumer engagement.

Profitability in the 2026-2036 period will favor vertically integrated players capable of managing raw material volatility while maintaining consistent, sustainably sourced products. Growth rates differ across regions: India (3.4%), Germany (3.3%), USA (3.2%), China (3.1%), and UK (3.0%), reflecting variable adoption of premium olive oil products.

Key Players

Deoleo, Cobram Estate Olives Ltd, California Olive Ranch, Salov Group (Filippo Berio), Graza, Borges International Group, Sovena Group, Gallo Worldwide, Avril Group (Lesieur/Puget), Australian Oilseeds.

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About Future Market Insights (FMI)

Future Market Insights, Inc. (ESOMAR certified, recipient of the Stevie Award, and a member of the Greater New York Chamber of Commerce) offers profound insights into the driving factors that are boosting demand in the market. FMI stands as the leading global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, consulting, and events for the Packaging, Food and Beverage, Consumer Technology, Healthcare, Industrial, and Chemicals markets. With a vast team of over 400 analysts worldwide, FMI provides global, regional, and local expertise on diverse domains and industry trends across more than 110 countries.

This release was published on openPR.