Track Paracetamol Price Trend Historical and Forecasts

;Executive Summary

The global Paracetamol market experienced a decisive shift in pricing momentum over the past year, transitioning from supply-chain-driven firmness in early 2025 to broad-based price softening by the quarter ending September 2025. Across major consuming regions including North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe, prices declined quarter over quarter as elevated inventories, easing freight rates, and weakening export demand reshaped market fundamentals. While pharmaceutical demand remained structurally stable, short-term procurement behavior was constrained by destocking cycles, seasonal demand lulls, and cautious buyer sentiment.

In North America, the Paracetamol Price Index declined sharply during Q3 2025 as cheaper Chinese import offers, reduced freight costs, and inventory overhang pressured spot assessments. Asia Pacific, led by China, faced persistent oversupply conditions despite brief maintenance-related disruptions, resulting in sustained downward price corrections. Europe followed a similar trajectory, with Germany experiencing import-led destocking and logistics normalization after earlier supply constraints had supported prices in the first half of the year.

Historically, Paracetamol prices displayed significant volatility through 2024 and early 2025, driven by freight disruptions, tariff uncertainties, and uneven global demand recovery. As markets move toward year-end 2025, pricing signals suggest limited downside risk but muted upside potential until inventory normalization and demand recovery align more sustainably. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of quarterly movements, cost structures, procurement trends, and regional dynamics shaping the Paracetamol market.

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Introduction

Paracetamol remains one of the most widely consumed pharmaceutical active ingredients globally, forming a critical backbone of pain management, fever reduction, and over-the-counter healthcare formulations. Its global trade flows, however, expose pricing to a complex interplay of production economics, logistics costs, regulatory policies, and downstream pharmaceutical demand.

Over the past four quarters, Paracetamol pricing has reflected shifting market power between suppliers and buyers. Periods of logistical disruption and tariff uncertainty created temporary pricing strength, while subsequent freight normalization, excess production capacity, and inventory correction cycles triggered broad price declines. Understanding these dynamics is essential for procurement teams, distributors, and pharmaceutical manufacturers navigating volatile sourcing environments.

This report examines Paracetamol price trends and forecasts through a structured lens, covering global movements, regional performance, production cost dynamics, and procurement behavior from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025.

Global Paracetamol Price Overview

Globally, Paracetamol prices softened markedly by the quarter ending September 2025 following a volatile first half of the year. The global market shifted from tightness driven by freight congestion and pre-tariff buying in Q2 2025 to oversupply-driven correction in Q3.

Chinese exports continued to dominate global supply availability, with aggressive pricing strategies and high production utilization exerting downward pressure on landed costs worldwide. Simultaneously, declining ocean freight rates and easing port congestion reduced logistics premiums that had previously supported higher prices.

Despite stable end-use demand from pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors, buyers across regions adopted conservative procurement strategies, prioritizing inventory reduction and short-term coverage. This behavior limited spot market liquidity and reinforced bearish pricing sentiment globally.

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Regional Price Analysis

North America

In North America, Paracetamol prices declined significantly during the quarter ending September 2025. The U.S. Paracetamol Price Index fell by 7.7 percent quarter over quarter, reflecting weak import demand and broad destocking across pharmaceutical supply chains. The average quarterly price settled near USD 3050 per metric ton on a CFR basis, indicating landed cost equilibrium amid surplus availability.

Spot prices softened as elevated inventories and competitively priced Chinese offers reduced urgency for new procurement. Declining freight rates and temporary tariff relief further lowered import costs, amplifying downward pressure on domestic assessments. Production cost trends eased as raw material prices softened and transportation expenses declined, reducing cost support for suppliers.

Demand outlook in North America remained structurally steady due to pharmaceutical consumption; however, seasonal demand lulls and inventory overhang limited near-term purchasing activity. Supplier discipline attempted to restrict flows, but export competition from China sustained bearish pressure on CFR price benchmarks.

Why prices changed in September 2025 in North America

Prices declined due to weaker Chinese export offers, importer destocking, reduced freight costs, and improved logistics efficiency, all of which lowered landed costs and suppressed spot market activity.

Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific, led by China, experienced persistent downward pricing pressure throughout Q3 2025. The Paracetamol Price Index in China declined by 7.59 percent quarter over quarter, with average prices near USD 2920 per metric ton FOB Shanghai.

The region faced pronounced oversupply as aggressive domestic production coincided with weaker export demand caused by tariffs and trade disruptions. Elevated inventories and subdued downstream procurement forced suppliers to adjust prices downward to stimulate buying interest. While maintenance shutdowns briefly tightened availability at major facilities, smaller producers increased output, sustaining inventory overhang.

Production cost trends eased as feedstock prices moderated, partially offset by ongoing energy and logistics expenses. Demand outlook remained muted due to weaker seasonal illness patterns and cautious procurement behavior among buyers.

Why prices changed in September 2025 in APAC

Prices declined due to excess domestic supply, collapsing export demand, elevated inventories, and weaker downstream procurement, despite marginal cost relief from lower feedstock prices.

Europe

In Europe, Germany's Paracetamol Price Index fell by approximately 6.9 percent quarter over quarter during Q3 2025. Average quarterly prices hovered around USD 3025 per metric ton, reflecting stable import costs amid declining logistics expenses.

Spot market softness prompted suppliers to offer competitive dispatches as inventories remained ample and buyer inquiries subdued. Import availability from India and China increased, easing supply constraints that had supported prices earlier in the year. Lower freight rates and reduced port congestion further eroded logistics-related cost premiums.

Demand remained mixed, with limited restocking offset by conservative procurement strategies. While some formulators secured coverage for early 2026, widespread destocking continued to pressure transactional prices.

Why prices changed in September 2025 in Europe

Higher import volumes, lower freight costs, eased port congestion, and cautious downstream procurement collectively drove prices lower across European markets.

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Quarterly Price Summary Table

Region | Quarter Ending Sep 2025 Avg Price (USD/MT) | QoQ Price Change | Key Price Drivers

North America | ~3050 (CFR USA) | -7.7% | Cheaper Chinese imports, destocking, lower freight

APAC (China) | ~2920 (FOB Shanghai) | -7.59% | Oversupply, weak exports, high inventories

Europe | ~3025 (CFR Germany) | -6.92% | Import-led destocking, logistics normalization

Historical Quarterly Review

During Q4 2024, Paracetamol prices declined across regions due to oversupply, subdued demand, and lower production costs. December marked a temporary reversal as inventory rebuilding and supply constraints supported prices.

Q1 2025 remained volatile, with bearish sentiment in January and February driven by weak demand and high inventories. March saw price rebounds due to tariffs, restocking, and logistical disruptions.

Q2 2025 experienced sharp upward movements, particularly in May, as freight congestion, rising shipping costs, and pre-tariff buying tightened supply. By June, however, oversupply and inventory corrections reversed gains in Asia Pacific while Europe and North America maintained firmness.

Q3 2025 confirmed a broad market correction as logistics normalized and inventories weighed heavily on pricing.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Paracetamol production economics are heavily influenced by feedstocks such as para-aminophenol and acetic anhydride, alongside energy and logistics costs. In 2025, easing raw material prices and declining freight expenses reduced overall production cost pressure globally.

Chinese producers continued to benefit from scale efficiencies and competitive cost structures, allowing aggressive export pricing. European and North American suppliers faced higher regulatory and compliance costs but benefited from logistics normalization and improved supply reliability.

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Procurement Behavior and Outlook

Procurement strategies shifted decisively toward inventory management in 2025. Buyers focused on short-term coverage, delayed spot purchases, and leveraged competitive import offers. Forward procurement remains cautious as buyers anticipate continued price stability with limited upside risk.

Looking ahead, procurement outlook suggests gradual stabilization rather than sharp recovery. Demand normalization, seasonal healthcare consumption, and inventory drawdowns will be critical in shaping price direction into early 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is driving Paracetamol price declines globally

High inventories, easing freight rates, oversupply from China, and conservative procurement behavior are the primary drivers.

Will Paracetamol prices recover in the near term

Prices may stabilize as inventories normalize, but significant upside is unlikely without demand recovery or supply disruptions.

How important is freight to Paracetamol pricing

Freight costs have a major impact on landed prices, particularly for import-dependent regions like North America and Europe.

Which region is most cost competitive

Asia Pacific, especially China, remains the most cost-competitive production and export region.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers

ChemAnalyst provides real-time Paracetamol price tracking, regional market intelligence, and forward-looking price forecasts to support informed procurement decisions. With coverage across over 450 commodities, ChemAnalyst delivers insights into demand-supply balances, plant operations, logistics disruptions, and trade-flow shifts.

Our analyst team combines chemical engineering expertise with supply chain and trading intelligence, supported by on-ground presence across major global ports. By offering transparent price benchmarks, cost breakdowns, and actionable forecasts, ChemAnalyst empowers buyers to optimize procurement timing, mitigate risks, and strengthen supply chain resilience.

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This release was published on openPR.