Track Liquid Paraffin Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global Liquid Paraffin market experienced pronounced downward pressure through the quarter ending September 2025, reflecting a convergence of global oversupply, easing crude oil and base oil feedstock costs, and subdued demand across non-essential downstream sectors. Across major consuming regions including Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, the Middle East, Africa, and South America, price indices declined on a quarter-over-quarter basis as import-driven surplus volumes outpaced consumption growth.

APAC markets, led by Thailand, witnessed the sharpest quarterly correction, while Europe and MEA followed similar trajectories due to discounted imports and declining freight rates. North America recorded a comparatively moderate decline, supported by balanced inventories and steady refinery operations. Despite the bearish Q3 trend, near-term forecasts suggest gradual stabilization as inventories normalize, procurement discipline improves, and seasonal demand from pharmaceutical and personal care sectors strengthens toward late Q4 2025.

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Introduction

Liquid Paraffin, a highly refined mineral oil widely used across pharmaceutical, cosmetic, food processing, and industrial applications, remains sensitive to global feedstock movements, trade flows, and downstream consumption cycles. As a derivative of crude oil and base oil refining, its pricing is closely linked to energy markets, refinery utilization rates, and international logistics conditions.

The quarter ending September 2025 marked a correction phase for the Liquid Paraffin market following relatively stronger conditions earlier in the year. Global production remained elevated, while international trade flows intensified amid easing freight costs. Buyers across regions adopted cautious procurement strategies, resulting in persistent downward price pressure despite stable pharmaceutical demand.

Global Liquid Paraffin Price Overview

Globally, Liquid Paraffin prices trended lower in Q3 2025 as oversupply conditions intensified. Refiners across Asia and the Middle East maintained steady operating rates, while exporters aggressively offloaded material into import-dependent regions. The availability of discounted cargoes from China, the Gulf, and Southeast Asia reshaped pricing benchmarks worldwide.

Feedstock dynamics played a critical role during the quarter. Declining crude oil and base oil values reduced production costs, weakening seller pricing power. At the same time, lower intra-regional freight rates reduced landed costs, allowing importers to negotiate more favorable spot prices. While pharmaceutical-grade demand remained resilient, it was insufficient to absorb rising inventories, particularly in Europe and APAC.

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Quarterly Price Snapshot Table

Clean text-based table compiled from provided data

Region Country/Market Q3 2025 Price Index QoQ Average Price (USD/MT) Key Market Driver

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APAC Thailand -15.51% 960.33 Global oversupply, discounted imports

Europe Spain -10.56% 1033.00 Asian and ME exports, inventory build

MEA United Arab Emirates -13.39% 991.67 Crude decline, weak export demand

South America Brazil -10.30% 1052.33 Import surplus, price discounting

North America United States Moderate decline N/A Lower feedstock costs, steady supply

Regional Market Analysis

Asia-Pacific Liquid Paraffin Market

The APAC Liquid Paraffin market faced significant headwinds in Q3 2025, with Thailand recording a sharp 15.51 percent quarter-over-quarter decline in the Price Index. Ample imports from China and the Middle East flooded the market, creating surplus conditions and pressuring domestic prices. Reduced freight rates further lowered landed costs, weakening supplier margins.

Pharmaceutical demand remained stable across the region, supported by healthcare manufacturing and food-processing activity. However, demand from consumer, cosmetic, and industrial segments stayed muted. Importers adopted aggressive negotiation strategies, focusing on spot procurement and inventory optimization rather than long-term contracts.

Production costs softened during the quarter due to easing crude prices and improved logistics efficiency. Despite the bearish sentiment, the regional price forecast indicates modest stabilization as excess inventories gradually clear and seasonal consumption improves toward year-end.

European Liquid Paraffin Market

In Europe, Liquid Paraffin prices declined consistently through Q3 2025, with Spain registering a 10.56 percent quarterly drop. The market was heavily influenced by discounted imports from Asia and the Middle East, which pressured distributor margins and prompted price corrections.

Lower freight rates and improved shipping availability reduced procurement costs, enabling buyers to push back against higher offers. Pharmaceutical and personal care demand remained supportive but price sensitivity increased amid inventory accumulation.

Production cost trends eased as feedstock prices declined, relieving cost-side pressure on refiners. While inventory build and weak export enquiries weighed on prices during the quarter, selective refinery maintenance and export curbs are expected to tighten supply marginally, supporting price stabilization in the near term.

North America Liquid Paraffin Market

North America experienced a more measured decline compared to other regions. Prices softened through Q3 2025, driven primarily by falling crude oil and base oil values. Supply conditions remained comfortable as refineries maintained consistent production levels and inventories stayed balanced.

Demand from pharmaceutical and personal care sectors slowed during the quarter, while industrial consumption remained subdued. Sellers responded by offering discounts to stimulate offtake, particularly in September 2025.

Production cost trends reflected lower energy prices and stable freight rates. Looking ahead, demand is expected to recover gradually in Q4 2025, supported by festive season manufacturing and restocking activity, leading to marginal price improvement.

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Historical Quarterly Review

A broader historical perspective shows that Liquid Paraffin markets peaked during late 2024 and early 2025, followed by a sustained correction phase.

Q4 2024 witnessed strong volatility, with initial price surges driven by tight supply and robust pharmaceutical demand, followed by sharp year-end corrections.
Q1 2025 showed cautious optimism across regions, supported by balanced inventories and steady downstream activity.
Q2 2025 marked the beginning of sustained weakness as global oversupply intensified and freight dynamics improved.
Q3 2025 consolidated this bearish trend, with pronounced price declines across most regions.
Production and Cost Structure Insights

Liquid Paraffin production economics are closely tied to crude oil, base oil refining margins, energy costs, and logistics efficiency. During Q3 2025, declining feedstock prices and reduced freight inflation significantly softened production costs.

Refiners maintained high operating efficiency, contributing to ample availability. However, persistent oversupply compressed margins, prompting some distributors to clear excess inventory through aggressive discounting.

Procurement Behavior and Trade Flow Dynamics

Buyers across regions shifted toward short-term purchasing strategies during Q3 2025. Spot procurement dominated as importers leveraged oversupply and competitive international offers. Long-term contracts were selectively deferred, particularly in Europe and APAC.

Trade flows intensified from Asia and the Middle East into Europe, MEA, and South America, reshaping regional pricing benchmarks. Improved port logistics and stable shipping lanes facilitated timely imports, sustaining inventory levels.

Liquid Paraffin Price Forecast and Procurement Outlook

The near-term Liquid Paraffin price forecast suggests stabilization rather than recovery. While downside risks appear limited as inventories normalize, upside potential remains modest due to ample global supply and cautious buying behavior.

Procurement teams are expected to continue disciplined purchasing through early Q4 2025, with gradual restocking anticipated toward year-end as seasonal demand improves in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and healthcare manufacturing.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Liquid Paraffin prices fall in Q3 2025?

Prices declined due to global oversupply, lower crude oil and feedstock costs, reduced freight rates, and subdued demand outside pharmaceutical applications.

Which region saw the steepest price decline?

APAC, particularly Thailand, recorded the sharpest quarter-over-quarter decline due to heavy import inflows and surplus inventories.

Is demand weakening structurally?

No. Pharmaceutical demand remains steady globally, but it has been insufficient to offset surplus supply and weak consumer-sector demand.

What is the short-term price outlook?

Prices are expected to stabilize with marginal upside potential as inventories normalize and seasonal demand improves toward late Q4 2025.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Liquid Paraffin Buyers

ChemAnalyst provides real-time price tracking, weekly updates, and forward-looking forecasts for Liquid Paraffin and over 450 chemical commodities. By combining on-the-ground intelligence from major trading hubs with expert analysis, ChemAnalyst delivers actionable insights into price movements, production costs, plant operations, and supply-chain risks.

Buyers benefit from detailed demand-supply assessments, trade-flow monitoring, and procurement timing strategies designed to optimize sourcing decisions. With global analyst coverage and localized port intelligence, ChemAnalyst empowers procurement teams to stay ahead of market volatility and secure competitive advantage.

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This release was published on openPR.