Track Liquid Carbon Dioxide Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global Liquid Carbon Dioxide (LCO2) market demonstrated pronounced regional divergence through 2024 and 2025, shaped by fluctuating energy costs, feedstock availability, seasonal demand patterns, and persistent logistics constraints. During the quarter ending September 2025, North America experienced a firm upward price trend driven by feedstock inflation, ethanol plant maintenance, and tightening inventories. In contrast, the Asia-Pacific region faced declining prices amid weak beverage offtake, elevated inventories, and easing production costs. Europe recorded modest price gains as higher natural gas prices and regulatory constraints offset balanced demand and inventory discipline.

Across regions, production costs remained closely tied to natural gas markets, ammonia and ethanol operating rates, and diesel-linked logistics expenses. Procurement behavior reflected a cautious approach, with buyers balancing spot exposure against contract security amid recurring supply disruptions. Looking ahead, Liquid Carbon Dioxide price forecasts suggest continued regional volatility, with upside risks in energy-sensitive markets and muted recovery potential where demand remains structurally weak.

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Introduction

Liquid Carbon Dioxide plays a critical role across multiple end-use industries including food and beverage carbonation, dry ice production, cold-chain logistics, pharmaceuticals, welding, and chemical processing. Unlike many commodity chemicals, LCO2 supply is highly dependent on by-product recovery from ammonia, ethanol, hydrogen, and natural gas processing plants. As a result, market pricing is acutely sensitive to upstream operating rates, energy costs, and maintenance cycles.

Between late 2024 and Q3 2025, global LCO2 markets navigated a complex operating environment marked by volatile natural gas prices, evolving consumer demand patterns, and increasing logistics and regulatory pressures. Seasonal consumption cycles, particularly in beverages and dry ice, further amplified price movements, making Liquid Carbon Dioxide one of the more operationally sensitive industrial gas markets.

Global Liquid Carbon Dioxide Price Overview

On a global level, Liquid Carbon Dioxide prices during 2024-2025 reflected a balance between energy-driven cost pressures and uneven downstream demand recovery. While North America and Europe saw recurring cost-push inflation from natural gas and diesel markets, APAC prices were constrained by weaker beverage consumption and elevated inventories.

Trade flows remained limited due to the high cost of liquefaction, storage, and transportation. As a result, most regions relied heavily on domestic or intra-regional supply, intensifying the impact of localized outages and logistics bottlenecks. Spot price volatility increased during periods of ethanol and ammonia plant maintenance, while long-term contract prices adjusted more gradually in response to sustained cost trends.

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Key Liquid Carbon Dioxide Price Data Summary

Clean text-based table compiled from the provided content

Region Quarter Ending Sep 2025 QoQ Price Change Avg Price (USD/MT) Key Drivers

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North America USA +4.97% 605.33 Feedstock inflation, ethanol maintenance, logistics

APAC Japan -6.93% 210.33 Weak offtake, high inventories, lower import costs

Europe France +1.39% 267.67 Energy costs, regulatory constraints, balanced demand

Regional Market Analysis

North America Liquid Carbon Dioxide Market

During the quarter ending September 2025, the North American Liquid Carbon Dioxide market recorded a notable strengthening in prices. In the United States, the LCO2 Price Index rose by 4.97 percent quarter over quarter, reflecting tightening supply conditions and rising production costs. Average quarterly prices reached approximately USD 605.33 per metric ton, signaling a materially firmer market compared to earlier quarters.

The primary driver behind this increase was feedstock inflation, particularly rising natural gas prices, which directly elevated production costs across CO2 recovery units. Ethanol plant maintenance in the Midwest significantly reduced CO2 availability, while diesel inflation and driver shortages constrained logistics capacity. These factors collectively tightened inventories, prompting distributors to impose allocation measures and increasing spot price volatility.

Demand remained resilient, supported by beverage carbonation, dry ice usage in logistics, and food processing applications. Seasonal beverage demand during late summer further intensified pressure on already constrained supply. Procurement behavior shifted toward short-term coverage, with buyers prioritizing supply security over price optimization amid uncertainty.

Price forecasts for North America indicate continued upside risks into autumn, supported by lingering logistics challenges, constrained recovery from ethanol plants, and steady downstream demand. Production cost trends remain elevated as energy and transportation expenses show limited signs of near-term easing.

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Asia-Pacific Liquid Carbon Dioxide Market

In contrast to North America, the Asia-Pacific Liquid Carbon Dioxide market experienced a pronounced price decline during the quarter ending September 2025. In Japan, the LCO2 Price Index fell by 6.93 percent quarter over quarter, with average prices reported at approximately USD 210.33 per metric ton on an FOB basis.

Weak beverage offtake during the monsoon season significantly reduced consumption across key markets, creating temporary supply surpluses. Elevated inventories weighed heavily on spot prices, while buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, deferring procurement amid expectations of further softness.

Production cost trends in APAC eased during the quarter, supported by lower import costs and currency strength, particularly the stronger yen. While logistics challenges persisted, including trucking labor shortages and freight inflation, sellers were unable to pass through these costs due to subdued demand and competitive pressures.

China's broader APAC market context also reflected similar dynamics, with oversupply and weak consumer demand outweighing feedstock volatility. Despite earlier LNG cost pressures, increased pipeline imports and reduced spot LNG purchases helped stabilize production expenses.

Near-term price forecasts for APAC signal limited upside potential, with recovery dependent on beverage demand normalization and inventory drawdowns. Procurement strategies remain conservative, emphasizing minimal stockholding and flexible sourcing.

Europe Liquid Carbon Dioxide Market

The European Liquid Carbon Dioxide market recorded moderate price growth during the quarter ending September 2025. In France, the LCO2 Price Index increased by 1.39 percent quarter over quarter, with average prices reaching approximately USD 267.67 per metric ton.

Rising natural gas prices and intensified LNG competition elevated production costs, placing upward pressure on CO2 pricing. Regulatory compliance requirements and maintenance outages constrained production capacity, particularly in France, tightening domestic supply. However, high pre-holiday inventories and cautious procurement behavior helped moderate spot market volatility.

Demand remained firm across beverage and fast-moving consumer goods sectors, providing a stable consumption base. At the same time, disciplined inventory management and logistical adjustments limited the extent of price escalation.

European price forecasts point toward modest seasonal fluctuations rather than sharp movements, with energy markets and regulatory developments remaining the primary variables influencing cost structures.

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Historical Quarterly Review

In Q4 2024, Liquid Carbon Dioxide prices trended upward in North America and Europe due to rising natural gas prices, while APAC experienced mixed movements amid easing production costs and stable demand. Q1 2025 brought price softness in North America driven by declining gas prices, whereas Europe continued its upward trajectory due to energy inflation and supply disruptions. APAC saw heightened volatility as LNG price swings and logistics constraints reshaped supply dynamics.

By Q2 2025, energy cost inflation returned as a dominant theme in North America and Europe, while APAC markets weakened due to oversupply and demand contraction. These cumulative trends set the stage for the divergent regional outcomes observed in Q3 2025.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Liquid Carbon Dioxide production economics are heavily influenced by upstream operating rates, particularly in ammonia, ethanol, and hydrogen plants. Natural gas remains the most critical cost input, followed by electricity, compression, liquefaction, and transportation expenses. Diesel price inflation has emerged as a major secondary cost driver, particularly in regions with long-haul distribution requirements.

Environmental regulations and maintenance outages further constrain production flexibility, amplifying price volatility during peak demand periods.

Procurement Outlook and Buyer Behavior

Procurement strategies across regions increasingly emphasize supply reliability over price minimization. Long-term contracts remain essential for large beverage and food processors, while spot purchases are used tactically to manage short-term demand spikes. Buyers are also exploring alternative carbonation technologies and efficiency improvements to mitigate rising CO2 costs.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Liquid Carbon Dioxide prices rise in North America in September 2025

Prices increased due to higher natural gas feedstock costs, ethanol plant maintenance, logistics constraints, and strong seasonal demand.

Why did APAC Liquid Carbon Dioxide prices decline during the same period

Weak beverage offtake, elevated inventories, easing production costs, and cautious procurement behavior led to price softness.

What limited price increases in Europe

Balanced inventories, cautious buyer behavior, and logistics planning moderated the impact of rising energy and regulatory costs.

What factors will shape future Liquid Carbon Dioxide prices

Energy markets, upstream plant operating rates, logistics availability, seasonal demand, and regulatory developments will remain decisive.

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How ChemAnalyst Supports Liquid Carbon Dioxide Buyers

ChemAnalyst provides real-time price tracking, weekly market updates, and forward-looking forecasts for Liquid Carbon Dioxide across global regions. Buyers benefit from detailed insights into production costs, plant outages, logistics risks, and trade-flow disruptions. With on-ground intelligence from major trading hubs and a team of chemical engineers and market analysts, ChemAnalyst helps procurement teams optimize sourcing strategies, manage supply risks, and make data-driven purchasing decisions in an increasingly volatile market.

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This release was published on openPR.