Track Treated Distillate Aromatic Extract Price Index Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary (Q1-Q3 2025 & Outlook)

The global Treated Distillate Aromatic Extract (TDAE) market remained characterized by subdued demand from key downstream sectors, balanced supply, and soft to neutral pricing trends through the first three quarters of 2025. In North America and Europe, demand weakness from tire and rubber manufacturers was a persistent theme, curbing price momentum despite stable feedstock costs and efficient logistics. In the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, volatile crude markets, logistics constraints, and export dynamics shaped pricing behavior, with Malaysia acting as a central pricing hub.

Across regions, the TDAE Price Index generally declined quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, while Q2 2025 was largely flat to modestly weak. The underlying production cost trends remained steady in most markets, though APAC saw softer production costs in Q3 tied to easing crude. Procurement behavior remained cautious in all regions, as buyers limited contract volumes and optimized inventory holdings amid muted industrial activity. The forecast points to limited upside near-term, with modest recovery potential aligned with seasonal demand and restocking patterns.

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Introduction

Treated Distillate Aromatic Extracts (TDAE) are a class of petroleum-derived solvents and plasticizers extensively used in rubber compounding, especially for tire manufacturing, as well as other industrial polymers and specialty applications. Price movements in TDAE provide a barometer for both crude feedstock cost dynamics and demand from rubber-intensive manufacturing sectors.

In 2025, macroeconomic headwinds - including soft automotive production, cautious industrial procurement, and fluctuating crude markets - influenced TDAE pricing trends across North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. This comprehensive article analyzes quarterly movements, drivers of price changes, supply cost dynamics, logistics, and trade flow impacts, culminating in forward price outlooks and practical insights for procurement and supply chain professionals.

Global Price Overview (Q1-Q3 2025)

Global TDAE pricing in 2025 reflected softer demand against a backdrop of stable production costs. In Q1, markets experienced mixed pricing trends, with APAC showing price increases driven by restocking ahead of Ramadan, and North America and Europe recording slight declines on weaker rubber sector demand.

In Q2, North America and Europe saw largely flat to modest declines in TDAE price indices due to subdued automotive manufacturing activity and excess supply, while APAC (particularly Malaysia) reported marginal price increases tied to export demand and localized supply pressures.

By Q3, the price trend turned softer globally, with all three regions - North America, Europe, and APAC - posting quarter-over-quarter declines. These trends were underpinned by cautious procurement, balanced to abundant spot availability, and continued muted downstream demand.

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Regional Analysis

North America

Quarterly Movements

Q1 2025: Prices exhibited slight downward pressure. Soft demand from the automotive sector - especially tire manufacturing - was the primary driver. Production was steady, though logistical delays were noted.
Q2 2025 (April-June): The TDAE Price Index in North America remained mostly flat. Automotive manufacturing demonstrated mixed activity, with tire replacement segments particularly weak. Stable domestic refinery output and feedstock availability helped maintain balanced supply, but demand softness continued.
July 2025: Prices declined modestly, aligning with traditional seasonal slowdowns and reductions in procurement by tire manufacturers. With stable crude pricing and flat upstream costs, there was little impetus for price increases.
Q3 2025 (July-September): The TDAE Price Index declined quarter-over-quarter. Demand from tire and rubber processors was subdued, dampening offtake. Efficient port logistics and uninterrupted production meant supply met demand comfortably, limiting any upward pricing pressure.

Reasons Behind Price Changes

Demand Weakness: Downstream demand from automotive and rubber sectors remained subdued. Tire manufacturers reduced procurement amid calmer production schedules and inventory rationalization.
Supply Conditions: Stable feedstock costs and ongoing refinery operations ensured adequate supply, keeping upward cost pressure minimal.
Procurement Behavior: Buyers adopted conservative purchasing strategies, expanding inventories only when necessary. Spot market activity remained cautious, which eased speculative price increases.

Production and Cost Trend

North America's production cost trend stayed balanced. Domestic refineries operated efficiently with access to competitively priced crude feedstocks, while weekly price movements largely stayed neutral to soft.

Logistics and Trade Flows

Port logistics remained efficient throughout 2025, ensuring steady product availability. Minor disruptions - such as early Q3 container repositioning challenges - had limited impact on overarching supply chains.

Asia-Pacific (APAC)

Quarterly Movements

Q1 2025: APAC experienced a near 7% price increase compared to the prior quarter. Early restocking ahead of Ramadan demand and lower upstream crude supported prices. However, seasonal slowdowns reduced manufacturing output mid-quarter.
Q2 2025: Malaysia's TDAE Price Index saw a marginal 0.3% increase Q-over-Q. Port congestion and rising logistics costs contributed to localized supply pressures, even as export demand from India, China, and Japan remained robust.
July 2025: Prices dipped slightly with easing geopolitical concerns that had previously introduced crude volatility. Inventory levels were adequate despite enduring congestion at Port Klang.
Q3 2025: The TDAE Price Index in APAC fell by 5.2356% quarter-over-quarter. Softer Asian crude and easing feedstock costs lowered production costs. Sluggish automotive exports and logistics bottlenecks, including port congestion, further dampened pricing.

Drivers of Price Changes

Crude Price Volatility: Supply-side crude fluctuations influenced refinery margins and domestic availability.
Logistics Costs: Port congestion in key hubs increased freight and handling costs, amplifying short-term supply tightness.
Demand Dynamics: Weaker export demand from automotive segments and delayed purchasing tempered the TDAE Price Index.
Inventory Stability: Stable inventories helped prevent sharper price spikes, aiding market equilibrium.

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Production and Cost Structure

APAC's production cost trend softened in Q3 2025, largely due to reduced Asian crude prices. Refinery cost efficiencies helped abate inflationary pressures, though logistics unpredictability remained a concern.

Europe

Quarterly Movements

Q1 2025: Europe's TDAE market recorded slight price declines due to weak demand from automotive and rubber sectors. Production remained steady, though logistical challenges - including port congestion - were noted.
Q2 2025: The TDAE Price Index showed minimal changes as the market balanced stable cost fundamentals with weak macroeconomic indicators in major economies like Germany and France. Competitive pressure from Asian and Middle Eastern exporters also influenced pricing.
July 2025: Price declines were aligned with excess supply conditions and soft demand. Buyers remained cautious, delaying spot purchases and minimizing contract commitments.
Q3 2025: The TDAE Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter, again reflecting subdued demand from tire and rubber processors and neutral to soft weekly price movements supported by efficient logistics and consistent plant operations.
Drivers of Price Movements

Demand Factors: Weak end-use demand, especially in tire manufacturing, was the key downward driver.
Supply and Competition: Balanced supply chains and competitive pressure from alternative exporters limited domestic price increases.
Procurement Caution: Long inventory cycles and tepid reordering patterns contributed to a soft market tone.
Production and Cost Insights

European energy and crude input costs remained stable, though carbon compliance charges continued to weigh on long-range margin structures. Production cost dynamics, however, did not materially shift through 2025.

Logistics Impacts

Port and inland transport systems remained stable across key European hubs. Efficient logistics helped maintain product availability, preventing supply chain bottlenecks despite broader demand weakness.

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Historical Quarterly Review (Q1-Q3 2025)

Q1 2025

North America and Europe: Prices softened modestly due to weak downstream demand.
APAC: Price increases reflected proactive restocking and feedstock tailwinds.

Q2 2025

Balanced pricing dynamics with minor region-specific nuances.
APAC saw marginal price growth; North America and Europe remained flat to modestly weak.

Q3 2025

Global downward price trend with quarter-over-quarter declines in all major regions.
Supply conditions remained ample, and demand was slow across the tire and rubber sectors.
The consistent theme through H1 and H2 2025 was cautious procurement behavior, subdued offtake by key demand sectors, and a focus on inventory management, which collectively kept price movements soft.

Procurement Behavior & Outlook

Procurement teams across all regions maintained conservative strategies in 2025, prioritizing:

Essential Ordering: Limiting cargo volumes to immediate needs rather than speculative stocking.
Price Negotiation: Leveraging ample spot availability to negotiate favorable terms.
Inventory Management: Optimizing working capital by balancing just-in-time stock levels against potential pricing shifts.
Looking forward, modest improvements in automotive manufacturing and festival associated stocking in key APAC markets could spark slight demand upticks. However, significant price recoveries are contingent on broader macroeconomic improvements and stronger downstream demand.

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FAQ - Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: Why did TDAE prices decline in most regions during Q3 2025?
A: Across North America, Europe, and APAC, subdued downstream demand - particularly from the tire and rubber sectors - combined with stable to ample supply and cautious buyer behavior, kept price indices soft or declining.

Q2: How did crude oil prices influence TDAE cost trends?
A: Crude price movements, especially in APAC, directly affected production costs. Lower Asian crude in Q3 2025 helped soften production expenses, aiding downward price pressures.

Q3: What role did logistics play in TDAE pricing?
A: Logistics factors such as port congestion in APAC elevated handling costs and created short-term supply bottlenecks. In contrast, North America and Europe generally experienced efficient logistics, preventing significant supply disruptions.

Q4: What is the procurement outlook for TDAE?
A: Procurement teams remain cautious, balancing inventory levels with short-term demand forecasts. Conservative buying strategies are expected to continue until clearer demand signals emerge.

Q5: Are there near-term price recovery signs?
A: Forecasts suggest limited upside potential in late 2025, driven by seasonal demand and festival stocking in APAC, but broad recovery hinges on improved automotive and rubber sector activity.

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