Track Coconut Oil Price Index Historical and Forecast

Coconut Oil Price Trend and Forecast Report | Global Market Insights, Regional Analysis, and Procurement Outlook

Executive Summary

The global Coconut Oil market continued to navigate a complex landscape of supply constraints, shifting procurement patterns, climatic disruptions, and evolving demand from food, cosmetic, pharmaceutical, and oleochemical industries during 2024-2025. Across all major consuming regions-North America, Asia Pacific (APAC), and Europe-prices reflected the interplay of tightening copra availability, fluctuating spot liquidity, shifts in international trade flows, and rising production and freight costs.

For the quarter ending September 2025, Coconut Oil prices recorded modest gains in North America and Europe, while APAC markets saw more pronounced volatility driven by raw material shortages, El Niño-based yield impacts, and inconsistent export demand. Earlier quarters-including March 2025, June 2025, and Q4 2024-displayed alternating phases of bullish and bearish sentiment influenced by seasonal dynamics, currency movements, port congestion levels, inventory cycles, and raw coconut procurement challenges.

As the market approaches 2026, Coconut Oil Price Forecasts signal steady-to-firm trends supported by restocking activity, tightening copra supply, structured import planning, and elevated logistics costs. Stakeholders across the value chain continue to rely on real-time market intelligence to navigate uncertainty and optimize procurement decisions.

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Introduction

Coconut Oil remains a crucial commodity in the global edible oils market, serving as an essential raw material for the food and beverage industry, personal care and cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, detergents, and biofuel applications. With Southeast Asia acting as the core supply hub-primarily Indonesia, the Philippines, and parts of India-the market is sensitive to climatic fluctuations, plantation yields, export policy shifts, freight availability, and currency impacts.

The past two years have seen dramatic shifts in supply-demand dynamics. Weather anomalies such as El Niño, aging coconut plantations, export levies, and rising input costs have tightened upstream supply. At the same time, consumption from downstream industries holds steady, maintaining structural support for prices. This article provides a detailed PR-style analysis covering market performance across regions, quarterly fluctuations, historical price movements, supply conditions, cost structures, and buyer behavior, along with a forward-looking procurement outlook based on current market indicators.

Global Price Overview

Global Coconut Oil prices in 2024-2025 remained influenced by:

Tight copra availability due to adverse weather, aging palms, and lower yields.

Volatile export offers from Indonesia and the Philippines, often driven by labor, logistics, and plantation constraints.

Freight rate fluctuations, container shortages, and port congestion in key Asian hubs.

Steady demand from food, cosmetics, and industrial segments across the U.S., Europe, and APAC.

Currency movements, particularly the US Dollar against regional currencies, affecting landed cost dynamics.

Inventory cycles and restocking patterns, especially visible around Q2 and Q3 2025.

The second half of 2025 shows a recovery trend across most regions, driven by restocking interest, tightening global supply, and stronger seasonal consumption.

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Regional Market Analysis

North America Market Analysis

Market Overview - Quarter Ending September 2025
The U.S. Coconut Oil Price Index recorded modest quarter-over-quarter gains, driven by:

Steady import activity

Seasonal demand patterns

Limited export offers from South America and Asia

Inventory adjustments among importers and distributors

Spot price movements stabilized toward the end of the quarter as global suppliers balanced export offers with tightening available volumes.

Why Did Prices Change in September 2025 in North America?

Key drivers included:

Reduced export offers from key Asian and South American origins.

Inventory adjustments resulting from earlier procurement delays.

US Dollar strength, offsetting part of the upward cost pressure.

Rising freight rates and container scarcity, although efficient ports mitigated severe disruption.

The Coconut Oil Production Cost Trend rose due to firmer copra quotations and elevated shipping costs, keeping landed values at relatively high levels. Demand remained stable across food processing and personal care applications, though buyers maintained a cautious procurement approach amid global price volatility.

North America - Quarter Ending June 2025
July 2025 displayed a strong upward trend in the U.S. market:

Reduced global exports, particularly from Indonesia and the Philippines.

Tightened inventories due to delayed shipments and logistical congestion.

High raw coconut prices sustained elevated production and import costs.

Active restocking by food and cosmetics industries ahead of Q4.

Why prices rose in July 2025:

Severe tightness in global supply chains.

High origin-side input costs.

Stronger restocking demand after a muted June.

Weather-driven production challenges in Southeast Asia.

These trends reinforced bullish sentiment, encouraging early cargo purchases despite elevated landed costs.

North America - Quarter Ending March 2025 (Historical Review)
Q1 2025 in North America was marked by:

January 2025

Prices remained elevated due to lagging supply from late 2024 disruptions.

Strong demand from food, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals sustained firmness.

February 2025

Prices adjusted downward as:

Port congestion eased.

Certain Southeast Asian processing facilities resumed operations.

Freight availability improved.

March 2025

Softer demand from non-essential industries.

Port throughput improved, reducing container costs.

Exchange rate fluctuations introduced uncertainty for buyers.

Overall, Q1 2025 showcased a transitional recovery phase, balancing improved logistics with lingering supply risks.

North America - Quarter Ending December 2024 (Historical Review)
Q4 2024 was an exceptionally strong period:

Severe global supply chain disruptions.

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Manufacturing shutdowns in producing countries.

High demand from pharmaceutical and cosmetic sectors.

US dollar appreciation, which increased export cost burdens.

Elevated transport expenses and inventory shortages.

This period set the stage for higher baseline prices carried into early 2025.

Asia Pacific (APAC) Market Analysis

APAC - Quarter Ending September 2025
Indonesia's Coconut Oil Price Index rose 0.40% Q-o-Q due to:

Supply tightness, partly attributed to El Niño.

Rising raw coconut prices and processing cost inflation.

Volatile export demand, influenced by tariffs and seasonal holidays.

Constraints at mills and intermittent production slowdowns.

While average quarterly prices averaged USD 2691.67/MT, spot liquidity weakened due to:

Inventory releases

Restocking delays

Port congestion expectations

Hedging actions by traders anticipating further freight increases

Why Did Prices Change in APAC in September 2025?

Elevated copra and coconut costs sharply raised production expenses.

International procurement slowed due to tariffs and seasonal factors.

Inventory rebalancing and congestion created short-term volatility.

Export demand fluctuated, weakening spot transactions despite tight supply.

APAC - Quarter Ending June 2025
July 2025 saw a significant reversal after June's sharp correction:

Prices rose from USD 2765/MT in June as supply tightened.

Government interventions and rumored export duties boosted upstream costs.

Processing facilities faced rain-related disruptions.

Buyers across Southeast Asia resumed purchases sensing that June had marked a price bottom.

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Why Prices Increased in July 2025

Tight raw coconut availability.

Reduced facility output and rising production costs.

Improved regional export interest, especially from Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Producers retaining stocks to wait for better margins.

APAC's Q2 reflected the region's sensitivity to cost-driven supply constraints and shifts in international offtake patterns.

APAC - Quarter Ending March 2025 (Historical Review)
Q1 2025 in Indonesia was highly volatile:

January 2025

Strong price surge due to:

Tight coconut inventories.

Robust global demand.

Supportive currency trends.

February 2025

Prices dropped due to:

Oversupply.

Declining Consumer Price Index.

Weak downstream procurement.

March 2025

Sharp rebound driven by:

Weather-based production cuts (El Niño).

Pest challenges reducing yields.

Strong global demand from the U.S., EU, and China.

APAC's market volatility in Q1 highlighted the direct impact of weather systems on output, alongside major international purchasing cycles.

APAC - Quarter Ending December 2024 (Historical Review)
The Philippines saw highly erratic price movements in Q4 2024:

October experienced price declines due to:

Large-scale seedling plantation initiatives.

Rising exports contributing to oversupply.

November saw a dramatic rebound caused by:

Typhoon Man-yi

Aging palm trees

Export competitiveness amid weaker local currency

December maintained elevated prices due to:

Logistical disruptions

Strong demand from US, EU, and China

High production costs

Europe Market Analysis

Europe - Quarter Ending September 2025
The Netherlands Coconut Oil Price Index rose 0.4469% Q-o-Q with average import prices around USD 2771.67/MT.

Key trends:

Spot prices softened at times due to South Asian export offers and increased inventory levels.

Production costs climbed due to copra shortages and strong export quotations.

Import logistics remained stable, although container scarcity added cost pressure.

Why Did Prices Change in Europe in September 2025?

Reduced export offers from South Asia contributed to softer landed costs.

Euro appreciation helped ease purchasing pressure.

Freight increases and container shortages added mild logistical strain.

Efficient port operations prevented significant disruptions.

Europe - Quarter Ending June 2025
July 2025 saw a clear rebound following June's sharp 4.20% decline:

Spot prices strengthened due to low inventory and renewed buying interest.

Upstream costs rose on expectations of rising copra and export levies.

Demand recovered in personal care and food sectors.

Why Prices Rose in July 2025

Cautious June procurement caused low July inventories.

Global fundamentals turned supportive with firmer offers from Asian exporters.

Improving edible oil sentiment boosted Coconut Oil's competitiveness.

Europe - Quarter Ending March 2025 (Historical Review)
Q1 2025 reflected pronounced volatility:

January 2025

Prices soared due to:

Climate-driven disruptions in the Philippines and Indonesia.

Strong demand from multiple sectors.

High freight costs and geopolitical tensions.

February 2025

Decline in prices due to:

Falling export prices from Asia.

Lower freight costs.

Weak industrial consumption.

March 2025

Price recovery driven by:

Higher global production costs.

Tight origin-side supply.

Increased export offers.

Euro weakening against USD.

Europe - Quarter Ending December 2024 (Historical Review)
Q4 2024 showcased sustained price increases:

Copra shortages and weather disruptions dominated October.

November saw further supply tightness and strong demand.

December prices climbed amid global supply challenges and higher competitive demand.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Across regions, production costs remained elevated due to:

High copra prices and raw coconut shortages.

Increased labor, fertilizer, and plantation maintenance costs.

Higher energy and processing charges.

Freight rate volatility and container shortages.

Weather-related disruptions impacting yields.

This cost escalation has significantly influenced global Coconut Oil price floors, preventing major price drops even during periods of weak demand.

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Procurement Outlook

Buyers across the world are expected to maintain cautious yet strategic procurement strategies through 2025-2026:

Restocking will remain steady ahead of seasonal demand peaks.

Spot volatility will persist, influenced by logistics constraints and export offer fluctuations.

Forward contracting will increase as buyers seek to mitigate supply-chain risks.

Demand remains stable across food and personal care sectors, with moderate growth in oleochemicals.

Imports may remain expensive due to rising shipment and insurance premiums.

Origin-side challenges-weather uncertainty, aging trees, and production constraints-will continue to influence price movements.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why are global Coconut Oil prices volatile?
Because Coconut Oil depends heavily on Southeast Asian supply, prices respond quickly to changes in weather, plantation yields, trade policies, and freight availability.

What factors influence Coconut Oil production costs?
Key contributors include raw coconut and copra prices, labor, energy, plantation upkeep, transportation, export levies, and currency movements.

Why do Coconut Oil prices differ across regions?
Differences arise due to logistics costs, currency fluctuations, import duties, demand profiles, and local inventory cycles.

How does weather affect Coconut Oil supply?
Events like El Niño or typhoons reduce yields, disrupt harvest cycles, and delay transport, tightening global supply.

Is demand for Coconut Oil expected to grow?
Yes, particularly in cosmetics, personal care, food processing, and emerging biofuel applications.

What procurement strategies work best during volatile markets?
Forward booking, diversified supplier networks, real-time price monitoring, and safety-stock optimization.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers with Real-Time Data & Forecasting

ChemAnalyst empowers procurement teams, manufacturers, and traders with real-time price data, weekly market updates, and expert-driven forecasting that captures the underlying forces driving Coconut Oil prices. With analysts positioned across the world's largest trading ports-including Houston, Rotterdam, Busan, Shanghai, Jebel Ali, Antwerp, and Hamburg-ChemAnalyst provides:

Live price tracking for over 450+ commodities.

Accurate market forecasts to help buyers time their purchases.

Plant shutdown monitoring to identify supply risks early.

Supply chain and logistics intelligence for planning cargo movements.

Reasons behind every price change, helping teams understand market drivers.

Deep coverage of demand-supply balances, production costs, and trade flows.

With chemical engineers, economists, and global trade experts on staff, ChemAnalyst equips organizations with actionable insights to make confident, optimized procurement decisions and stay competitive in dynamic global markets.

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