Track Nitric Acid Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global Nitric Acid market has experienced nuanced shifts over the past year, influenced by supply constraints, feedstock costs, regional demand fluctuations, and logistical dynamics. In North America, Q3 2025 saw modest price gains underpinned by stable demand and production cost pressures. APAC markets, led by South Korea, witnessed a slight decline due to balanced supply and cautious procurement amid seasonal lulls. Europe, particularly Germany, experienced steady price growth, constrained by supply tightness and Rhine transport challenges.

Across regions, ammonia and natural gas costs remain critical determinants of Nitric Acid pricing, while seasonal fertilizer cycles, industrial demand, and logistics factors continue to shape market sentiment. Historical trends from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025 indicate that supply-side pressures, alongside inventory management and regional trade flows, have played a larger role than demand spikes in determining price movements.

Looking ahead, Nitric Acid prices are projected to remain relatively stable, reflecting moderate feedstock cost pressures, tempered fertilizer demand, and cautious procurement behavior. Buyers are advised to monitor supply chain dynamics and import parity conditions closely to optimize procurement strategies.

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Introduction

Nitric Acid, a key industrial chemical used in fertilizers, explosives, and numerous industrial applications, has experienced a complex pricing trajectory over the last year. Its market is sensitive to several factors, including:

Feedstock costs: Ammonia and natural gas prices significantly influence production costs.
Seasonal demand: Fertilizer production and agricultural cycles drive cyclical demand fluctuations.
Supply disruptions: Plant shutdowns, maintenance, and logistical bottlenecks can tighten supply, impacting spot prices.
Trade flows: Import parity, freight costs, and regional export demand influence pricing in major markets.
This report provides a detailed examination of Nitric Acid price trends from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, offering regional analysis for North America, APAC, and Europe, alongside historical insights, production cost trends, procurement behavior, and forward-looking forecasts.

Global Price Overview

Globally, Nitric Acid prices have demonstrated moderate volatility over the last year. Q1 2025 saw significant upward pressure in North America and Europe due to supply disruptions and robust fertilizer demand, while APAC markets faced price declines amid subdued demand and balanced supply.

Q4 2024: Prices in North America and Europe showed modest gains of 1-4%, while APAC experienced an 8% decline due to seasonal slowdowns and excess inventories.
Q1 2025: North America and Europe recorded strong price growth (2% and 5.5% quarter-over-quarter, respectively) driven by supply constraints and fertilizer procurement ahead of spring planting. APAC remained weak, with key markets such as Thailand seeing price declines of up to 4% due to limited downstream activity.
Q2 2025: North America saw a mild 0.5% increase, Europe 0.8%, and APAC markets declined 1.8% as seasonal demand tapered.
Q3 2025: North America experienced a 1.14% rise, Europe 0.75%, and APAC fell 0.72%, reflecting stabilized feedstock costs, tempered demand, and logistical factors.

Overall, price movements have been more influenced by supply-side considerations and cost pressures than by dramatic demand swings, highlighting the importance of monitoring production and logistics conditions.

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Regional Analysis

North America

Q3 2025 Performance:

The Nitric Acid Price Index rose 1.14% quarter-over-quarter, with an average price of USD 296.00/MT.
Spot prices remained steady due to constrained supply and seasonal restocking.
Production costs were pressured by ammonia and natural gas, supporting price stability despite moderate fertilizer demand.
Price Drivers:

Gulf Coast supply tightness bolstered prices, even as fertilizer demand softened.
Logistics improvements and steady domestic output limited volatility.
Import parity and freight costs influenced procurement decisions, keeping spot price differentials narrow.

Historical Context:

Q2 2025 saw a 0.5% increase, mainly from supply constraints and cautious restocking.
In Q1 2025, extreme winter conditions disrupted supply, while strong fertilizer demand drove prices higher, ending the quarter at USD 277/MT.
Q4 2024 showed modest recovery with prices around USD 288/MT, reflecting late-quarter pre-buying ahead of spring planting.

Procurement and Supply Outlook:

Buyers are expected to adopt measured purchasing, balancing seasonal demand and inventory considerations.
Supply is likely to remain stable but sensitive to ammonia price trends and logistics performance.
Domestic production and import flows are expected to support steady pricing.

APAC

Q3 2025 Performance:

South Korea recorded a 0.72% decline in the Nitric Acid Price Index, averaging USD 276.67/MT.
Spot prices reflected oscillating regional demand and export pull moderating domestic oversupply.
Production cost trends remained favorable, supported by stable ammonia prices.

Price Drivers:

Export demand from Southeast Asia and Japan remained muted, limiting domestic price appreciation.
Seasonal restocking by fertilizer manufacturers maintained volumes but did not substantially support price growth.
Pre-purchased low-cost ammonia inventories mitigated feedstock cost pressures.

Historical Context:

Q2 2025 experienced a 1.8% decline due to weak downstream interest and comfortable supply from Northeast Asian producers.
Q1 2025 saw a downturn with the quarter-end price in Thailand falling 4% to USD 310/MT, reflecting holiday shutdowns and subdued post-holiday demand.
Q4 2024 experienced an 8% decline compared to Q3, driven by seasonal slowdowns and abundant inventories.

Procurement and Supply Outlook:

Procurement is expected to remain cautious amid balanced inventories and soft seasonal demand.
Regional logistics, including port inflows and intra-Asia freight costs, will continue shaping price dynamics.
Export demand, particularly from Southeast Asia and Japan, will play a moderating role on price movements.

Europe

Q3 2025 Performance:

Germany's Nitric Acid Price Index rose 0.75% quarter-over-quarter, averaging USD 450.33/MT.
Spot prices remained mixed, with supply tightness offsetting weak downstream demand.
Production costs were influenced by energy prices and Rhine transport constraints.

Price Drivers:

Persistent supply tightness due to low Rhine water levels and transport delays supported prices.
Seasonal restocking and port logistics constraints encouraged cautious buying.
Energy and natural gas costs rose modestly, while lower feedstock costs offset some pressure.

Historical Context:

Q2 2025 recorded a 0.8% increase due to intermittent logistical bottlenecks and precautionary restocking.
Q1 2025 saw a sharp 5.5% increase, driven by elevated natural gas costs and strong seasonal demand, closing the quarter at USD 447/MT.
Q4 2024 experienced a 4% increase, fueled by constrained supply, higher production costs, and temporary demand surges.
Procurement and Supply Outlook:

Buyers are likely to maintain cautious purchasing strategies, considering logistics and energy cost pressures.
Supply-side tightness is expected to moderate gradually as Rhine water levels and transport logistics normalize.
Export demand, particularly within Eastern Europe, will continue to influence market behavior.

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Production and Cost Structure Insights

Nitric Acid production relies primarily on ammonia as a feedstock, with natural gas serving as a significant input for ammonia production. Key factors influencing production costs include:

Ammonia Prices: Fluctuations directly impact nitric acid production margins. Stable ammonia prices in APAC supported margins, whereas North America and Europe saw modest cost pressures.
Natural Gas Costs: Elevated natural gas costs in Europe and North America have periodically increased production costs.
Operational Efficiency: Plant capacity utilization and maintenance schedules influence supply tightness. For example, force majeure events in North America and maintenance shutdowns in Europe affected output in Q1 2025.
Logistics and Freight: Transport disruptions, river water levels, and port congestion significantly impact regional pricing and procurement decisions.

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Procurement Behavior and Trade-Flow Impacts

Across regions, procurement patterns reflect a combination of seasonal demand, feedstock costs, and logistics conditions:

North America: Buyers balanced stockpiling ahead of seasonal fertilizer cycles with careful management of import parity. Supply-side tightness and modest feedstock pressures encouraged timely purchasing.
APAC: Restocking was cautious, moderated by balanced inventories, stable ammonia costs, and muted export demand. Freight costs influenced intra-regional procurement strategies.
Europe: Procurement focused on mitigating logistical uncertainties and energy cost pressures, with buyers exercising restraint amid seasonal restocking. Export flows, particularly to Eastern Europe, played a key role in shaping market sentiment.

Nitric Acid Price Forecast

Looking forward, Nitric Acid prices are expected to show moderate stability:

North America: Prices likely to remain steady, supported by stable domestic production, manageable feedstock costs, and moderated fertilizer demand.
APAC: Anticipated flat-to-moderate drift, influenced by restocking activity, balanced supply, and energy cost stability.
Europe: Gradual stabilization expected as supply tightness eases, although Rhine transport constraints and energy cost pressures may introduce localized volatility.

FAQ - Nitric Acid Market

Q1: What caused the recent price increase in North America in Q3 2025?
Supply tightness in the Gulf Coast, moderate feedstock cost pressures, and seasonal restocking supported price stability.

Q2: Why did APAC Nitric Acid prices decline in Q3 2025?
Muted export demand, balanced domestic supply, and cautious seasonal procurement limited price appreciation.

Q3: How do ammonia and natural gas prices impact Nitric Acid?
Ammonia is the primary feedstock, and natural gas is a major input for ammonia production. Cost fluctuations in either directly influence production margins and pricing.

Q4: What are the key logistics factors affecting pricing in Europe?
Transport constraints, low Rhine water levels, port congestion, and freight costs influence supply availability and spot price behavior.

Q5: How should buyers approach procurement in the current market?
Buyers should balance seasonal demand with inventory management, monitor feedstock cost trends, and account for logistics and freight conditions to optimize procurement timing.

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How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers

ChemAnalyst provides buyers with actionable insights into the Nitric Acid market through real-time price tracking, weekly updates, and in-depth market news. Key benefits include:

Price Intelligence: Understand the reasons behind price movements, including supply constraints, feedstock cost trends, and logistics impacts.
Forecasting: Anticipate market trends with reliable price forecasts, allowing buyers to optimize procurement strategies and manage costs.
Supply-Chain Visibility: Monitor plant shutdowns, regional inventory levels, and logistics disruptions to mitigate potential risks.
Expert Analysis: Access insights from chemical engineers and market experts stationed across major trading hubs globally, including Houston, Shanghai, Busan, Rotterdam, Jebel Ali, Antwerp, and Hamburg.
Comprehensive Coverage: Track Nitric Acid alongside over 450 commodities, ensuring informed decisions across procurement and supply-chain operations.
By leveraging ChemAnalyst, procurement teams gain a competitive edge, proactively manage supply risks, and make informed decisions based on reliable, real-time market intelligence.

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