Track Natural Gas Price Report Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global natural gas market continues to undergo significant shifts amid evolving weather patterns, wide-ranging industrial dynamics, and a rapidly changing geopolitical environment. For the period ending September 2025, natural gas prices across North America, APAC, and Europe largely followed a declining trajectory, driven by abundant supply, moderate to weak demand, elevated inventories, and logistics stability. Regional fundamentals diverged, yet the overarching theme centered around oversupply conditions and seasonally mild weather.

Despite these downward movements, volatility persisted due to LNG trade constraints, storage mandates, pipeline flows, and varying levels of industrial consumption. In North America, surging production and record-high inventories weighed heavily on the price index, while APAC markets saw pipeline oversupply and reduced LNG reliance. Europe, meanwhile, recorded price softening due to robust LNG inflows, elevated storage levels, and weak industrial offtake.

Looking back at Q2, Q1, and Q4 2024, natural gas markets displayed the classic interplay of seasonal heating and cooling requirements, production fluctuations, geopolitical influences, and infrastructure constraints. While short-term price weakness dominated several markets, the longer-term outlook remains sensitive to weather extremities, LNG demand shifts, production constraints, and policy implications.

This PR-style analytical article presents a detailed, data-backed view of global natural gas prices, historical insights, market drivers, cost trends, procurement behavior, logistics impacts, and forward expectations-creating a comprehensive resource for buyers, planners, analysts, and supply chain professionals.

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Introduction

Natural gas remains one of the world's most critical energy commodities, fueling power generation, industrial operations, petrochemical production, residential heating, commercial consumption, and hydrogen/ammonia feedstock applications. The global transition toward cleaner fuels has further elevated the role of natural gas as a bridge in energy mix diversification.

Price movements across regions are increasingly influenced by:

Seasonal temperature fluctuations
LNG supply and trade dynamics
Pipeline stability and geopolitical tensions
Industrial demand cycles
Production surges and drilling efficiencies
Storage levels and inventory management
Regulatory changes and market reforms
The following sections provide a consolidated global and regional analysis based on the content provided, merged into a cohesive PR-style market report.

Global Price Overview - Q3 2025

For the quarter ending September 2025, natural gas markets across major consuming regions-North America, APAC, and Europe-reflected a predominantly bearish price trend. The key global drivers were:

Oversupply from robust domestic production
High storage injections maintaining inventories above five-year averages
Seasonally mild conditions reducing power burn and cooling/heating loads
Cheaper pipeline gas displacing LNG cargoes in Asia and Europe
Stable LNG terminal operations preventing sharp price spikes
Industrial slowdowns limiting large-volume offtake
Across major hubs, the global spot market remained rangebound, constrained by affordability issues, muted demand, and abundant supply availability. LNG flows supported floor levels in some regions, but were insufficient to trigger sustained rallies.

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REGIONAL ANALYSIS

North America Natural Gas Market

Q3 2025 - Quarter Ending September 2025

In North America, natural gas prices fell sharply, with the Natural Gas Price Index dropping by 11.9% quarter-over-quarter. The average price hovered around USD 3127/MT, indicating broad softness across U.S. hubs.

Key Drivers of Price Movement

Elevated natural gas production and continuous supply from major basins kept the market oversupplied.
Aggressive storage injections, exceeding five-year averages, suppressed spot price momentum.
Milder weather reduced power burn requirements, weakening summer cooling demand relative to expectations.
Industrial activity remained soft, further depressing domestic consumption.
LNG exports offered partial support, but export logistics and schedules could not offset regional surplus.
Transportation and feedstock expenses rose, pressuring production margins but not affecting overall supply availability.

Why Prices Fell in September 2025

Record-level production and high storage eliminated upward pressure.
Weather volatility disappointed expectations-cooler conditions reduced late-summer demand.
LNG exports were steady but not sufficient to clear domestic excess.

Procurement and Supply Chain Conditions

Buyers adopted shorter procurement cycles due to predictable oversupply.
Utilities and industrial buyers leveraged low prompt prices for short-term contracting.
Logistics remained stable, with minimal pipeline disruptions.

Q2 2025 - Quarter Ending June 2025

The Q2 2025 trend showed a mixed pattern: early-quarter weakness followed by late-June recovery.

The Natural Gas Price Index averaged USD 3696/1000 mmBtu, down 7% from Q1 2025.
Prices dropped in April and May due to mild temperatures and weaker industrial demand.
Storage injections significantly exceeded seasonal norms.
LNG feedgas demand dipped briefly during maintenance but rebounded later.

Why Prices Were Expected to Rise in July 2025

Persistent heatwaves across the South and Midwest.
Stronger cooling demand projected for peak summer.
Higher LNG feedgas volumes tightening domestic balances.
Late June saw:

Cooling demand surging in Texas and the Southeast.
Futures contracts rising 3%, indicating bullish sentiment.

Q1 2025 - Quarter Ending March 2025

Q1 exhibited highly weather-sensitive volatility.

January-March trends included:

Prices fell early due to warmer weather, rose temporarily during cold snaps, and declined again as spring approached.
LNG exports to Europe and Asia stayed strong but overshadowed by swelling domestic storage.
Freeze-offs caused brief supply dips, yet overall production remained high.
Inventory builds consistently exceeded the five-year average.

Q4 2024 - Quarter Ending December 2024

Natural gas prices increased steadily during Q4 2024 due to:

Strong winter heating demand
Higher LNG exports
Declining production in select basins
Pipeline constraints
Geopolitical concerns surrounding European supply
Prices rose month-to-month, driven by a tightening supply-demand balance.

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APAC Natural Gas Market

Trend, Pricing Drivers, and Forecast

Q3 2025 - Quarter Ending September 2025

In China, the Natural Gas Price Index fell 11.9011% quarter-over-quarter, averaging USD 3126.33/MT.

Key Drivers

Pipeline oversupply displaced costly LNG cargoes.
Domestic production surged, easing reliance on imports.
Weak industrial demand due to slower economic conditions.
Coal substitution trends continued to cap gas-fired generation.

Why Prices Fell in September 2025

Surging pipeline supply from Russia and Central Asia.
High inventory levels limited prompt offtake.
Temporary logistics disruptions after typhoon activity provided only short-lived support.

Q2 2025 - Quarter Ending June 2025

The regional index also averaged USD 3696/1000 mmBtu, down 7% from Q1 2025.

Drivers of Price Movement

Mild weather weakened early-quarter heating demand.
Domestic output rose by 4.3%, lowering production costs.
LNG imports dropped sharply due to tariffs on U.S. cargoes.
Pipeline gas imports increased, providing affordable alternatives.
Why Prices Expected to Rise in July 2025

Forecasted extreme summer heat raising cooling needs.
Higher power sector gas consumption.
Distribution constraints inland tightening regional availability.

Q1 2025 - Quarter Ending March 2025

Q1 showed a mixed trend:

January saw rising prices due to strong industrial demand.
February experienced a decline from mild weather and high inventories.
March rebounded due to power-sector restocking and tight inland supply.
LNG imports dropped 22% year-over-year, driven by cheaper pipeline alternatives.

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Q4 2024 - Quarter Ending December 2024

APAC natural gas prices rose sharply due to:

Strategic stockpiling for winter
Strong heating demand
Infrastructure expansion
Increased dependence on LNG imports
Coal-to-gas switching initiatives
Pipeline inflows from Russia helped mitigate some cost pressure, but demand still outpaced supply.

Europe Natural Gas Market

Trend, Price Index Shifts, and Forecast

Q3 2025 - Quarter Ending September 2025

In Germany, the Natural Gas Price Index fell by 10.33%. Average prices settled near USD 33267.33/MT, with LNG arrivals stabilizing supply.

Key Drivers

Rising LNG imports from the U.S., Qatar, and Norway.
High storage levels and ongoing injections.
Mild temperatures slowing residential and industrial consumption.
Strong pipeline flows supporting supply stability.
Reduced transportation and feedstock costs easing production cost trends.

Why Prices Declined in September 2025

Limited consumption due to cooler temperatures.
Underbooked storage and relaxed mandates reduced urgency.
Industrial sector weakness further dropped offtake.

Q2 2025 - Quarter Ending June 2025

Price Index averaged EUR 36,964/1000 MWh, down 19% from Q1 2025.
April-May saw substantial declines due to mild weather and low terminal utilization.
Norway outages tightened early-June supply, allowing limited rebounds.
Market turned bullish late in Q2 due to heatwaves, storage restocking, and geopolitical caution.

Why Prices Expected to Rise in July 2025

Hot weather fueling power demand.
Tightening LNG markets due to Middle East concerns.
Increased bookings for storage injections.
Q1 2025 - Quarter Ending March 2025

Q1 trends included:

Price surges in January from cold spells.
Declines in February from easing tensions and increased LNG imports.
Sharp drop of 13.5% in March due to mild weather and strong LNG availability.
Storage challenges persisted throughout the quarter.

Q4 2024 - Quarter Ending December 2024

Prices rose steadily due to:

Strong winter heating demand
Reduced renewable generation
Heightened geopolitical tensions
Competition for LNG cargoes with Asia
Lower storage levels despite sufficient supply
Europe remained sensitive to global LNG market volatility throughout the quarter.

Production & Cost Structure Insights

North America

Marginal cost pressures rose due to transportation and feedstock expenses.
Drilling efficiencies kept production elevated despite mild profitability constraints.
APAC

Domestic production growth reduced average production costs.
Pipeline imports remained the lowest-cost alternative.
Europe

Falling feedstock and transport expenses lowered the production cost trend.
Pipeline stability supported predictable cost structures.
Procurement Outlook

Buyers Should Expect:

Short-term volatility driven by weather and LNG flows.
Stable-to-soft prices in regions with high inventories.
More flexible contracting due to oversupplied markets.
Potential Q4 spikes tied to heating demand and geopolitical risk.
Long-term procurement strategies will increasingly depend on storage management, LNG hedging, and diversification of supply sources.

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FAQs - Natural Gas Market

Why did global natural gas prices fall in Q3 2025?

Oversupply, mild weather, high inventories, strong pipeline flows, and weak industrial demand across regions.

What factors will drive future natural gas prices?

Weather patterns, LNG trade flows, production levels, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory policies.

How do storage levels affect pricing?

High storage reduces urgency for procurement, leading to price suppression.

Why is LNG increasingly important?

It allows diversification beyond pipelines, enhances supply security, and influences spot markets globally.

How does industrial demand impact the market?

As a major end-user, industrial weakness reduces large-volume consumption, pushing prices lower.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers with Real-Time Insights

ChemAnalyst empowers procurement and market intelligence teams with:

Real-time natural gas price updates across 50+ global hubs
Weekly and monthly price assessments with clear explanations
Forecast models for short-, medium-, and long-term planning
Supply chain intelligence, including plant shutdown tracking
Demand-supply balancing insights for over 450 commodities
Coverage from analysts located in Houston, Cologne, and New Delhi
Ground-level market inputs from 50+ major ports worldwide
ChemAnalyst brings clarity to a complex market-explaining not only what prices are doing, but why they are moving. This empowers organizations to purchase smarter, manage risks proactively, and optimize costs with accuracy and confidence.

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This release was published on openPR.