Track Melatonin Price Index Historical and Forecast

Melatonin Price Trend and Forecast: Global Market Momentum, Regional Shifts, and Procurement Outlook

Executive Summary

The global Melatonin market has experienced dynamic pricing movements from late 2024 through 2025, shaped by fluctuating demand patterns, evolving inventory cycles, and varied supply-side behaviour across key regions. North America saw steady upward momentum supported by robust wellness-sector consumption, while Asia Pacific-especially China-grappled with oversupply and inventory-heavy conditions that pressured prices downward. Europe reflected a mix of muted demand and persistent inventory overhang through 2025, producing cautious sentiment across distributors and supplement manufacturers.

Across these markets, feedstock stability and consistent production rates played a central role in moderating volatility. Logistics, too, remained efficient, preventing any supply-chain disruptions that could have triggered aggressive spikes. Procurement strategies were increasingly disciplined, with buyers across regions favouring controlled stock-building, just-in-time purchasing, and forecast-based replenishment.

This PR-style market report covers the full timeline from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025, delving into quarterly trends, regional drivers, procurement insights, production cost dynamics, logistics influences, and forward-looking developments. With melatonin's strong role in health, wellness, and pharmaceutical applications, the market continues to evolve under the effects of global seasonal cycles, end-user demand behaviour, and macroeconomic sentiment.

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Introduction

Melatonin, a key active ingredient in sleep-support supplements, psychiatric formulations, and wellness products, has seen steady demand growth over the past decade. Its consumption is closely tied to consumer health trends, stress-related disorders, and evolving nutraceutical formulations. As a globally traded commodity, Melatonin prices are influenced by production rates, inventory behavior, upstream feedstock availability, export momentum, logistics conditions, and sector-specific demand.

The period from late 2024 to September 2025 has showcased varying price pathways across the world. While North America maintained a largely bullish trajectory supported by solid downstream consumption, APAC underwent corrections due to oversupply and subdued export flows. Europe remained structurally stable yet cautious, with distributors leaning toward lean stock positions and seasonal replenishment cycles dictating demand.

This report offers a comprehensive overview of how these forces shaped pricing, and what buyers can expect in the coming quarters.

Global Price Overview

The global Melatonin price environment from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025 can broadly be defined by three interlinked drivers:

Demand Stability in Wellness and Pharmaceutical Segments
Across North America and Europe, melatonin maintained strong consumption due to its role in sleep health, mental wellness, and OTC formulations. This sectoral resilience acted as a floor for prices even during periods of low seasonal consumption.

Controlled Production and Feedstock Stability
Producers across regions operated without major disruptions. With feedstock prices and energy costs largely stable, no significant cost-push inflation emerged. This maintained predictable production cost trends from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025.

Inventory Cycles and Regional Divergence

North America experienced periods of accelerated restocking, particularly in late Q2 and early Q3 2025.
APAC, especially China, struggled with persistent inventory overhang and passive buying.
Europe exhibited cautious procurement and high warehouse stocks, which capped upside movement.
These differing cycles shaped global pricing behaviour, resulting in divergent regional trajectories.

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Regional Analysis

North America

Quarter Ending September 2025

North America recorded a 0.27% quarterly rise in the Melatonin Price Index, reflecting steady operational demand coupled with well-balanced inventories. The average quarterly price (~USD 90,843/MT) aligned with stable procurement from wellness and pharmaceutical producers.

Key Highlights:

Spot prices remained muted, though the Price Index maintained mild firmness due to structured procurement.
Production costs stayed stable, supported by uninterrupted operations and predictable feedstock markets.
Demand Outlook pointed to a seasonal uptick heading into year-end due to higher supplement consumption.
Inventory levels remained sufficient, controlling volatility and preventing aggressive price surges.
Logistics and export flow efficiency preserved pricing discipline throughout the quarter.

Why Melatonin Prices Changed in September 2025 (North America)

Adequate inventories reduced urgent restocking efforts, limiting price escalation.
Smooth logistics and stable feedstock markets prevented cost inflation.
Political uncertainty led to cautious purchasing and slower order cycles.
The overall theme was controlled firmness without significant volatility.

Quarter Ending June 2025

Melatonin Spot Prices increased steadily through Q2 2025, closing at USD 92,500/MT FOB New York. This was driven by heightened procurement from wellness, pharmaceutical, and nutraceutical sectors.

Highlights:

Strong domestic and export demand boosted late-quarter momentum.
By June, buyers accelerated restocking to mitigate risks of future tightening.
Logistics remained fully efficient, keeping supply lines smooth.
No production bottlenecks were reported, contributing to balanced market conditions.

Why Prices Changed in July 2025 (North America)

Melatonin prices edged upward as downstream players sought to secure inventory ahead of expected seasonal demand. This created modest but steady bullish sentiment.

Quarter Ending March 2025

North America experienced a 1.55% quarterly rise, supported by:

Strong downstream demand from supplement manufacturers.
Seasonal transition from winter to spring boosting consumer wellness spending.
Smooth logistics and stable tariff-adjusted purchasing.
Well-balanced distributor inventory strategies that prevented overbuild.
Market sentiment remained broadly positive.

Quarter Ending December 2024

Melatonin prices increased by 3.2%, rising from USD 82,080/MT to USD 84,700/MT by December 2024.

Drivers:

Strong procurement from nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors.
Improved U.S. port logistics.
Seasonal year-end demand.
Export strength supported by reliable supply chains.

Asia Pacific (APAC)

Quarter Ending September 2025

In China, the Melatonin Price Index fell by 10.63% quarter-over-quarter, weighed down by:

Oversupply from continuous production.
High inventories across export hubs.
Passive procurement behaviour from domestic and overseas buyers.
Average quarterly price: USD 63,677/MT, with volatility early quarter stabilizing as sellers adjusted offers downward to clear stock.

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Why Melatonin Prices Changed in September 2025 (APAC)

Persistent oversupply pressured pricing.
Weak downstream demand reduced buyer urgency.
Stable production costs meant no supporting cost-push elements.
The price correction was purely demand-driven.

Quarter Ending June 2025

Melatonin prices in Shanghai settled at USD 66,150/MT by June, reflecting:

Soft seasonal demand.
Elevated inventories.
Limited export pull from Europe and North America.
Controlled procurement behaviour among domestic buyers.
Why Prices Changed in July 2025 (APAC)

Prices remained mostly unchanged due to sellers holding offers steady amid oversupply. Stable input costs further neutralized price movement.

Quarter Ending March 2025

Q1 2025 saw a modest 0.10% price increase, supported by:

Post-Lunar New Year restocking.
Balanced distribution operations.
Steady demand from pharma and nutraceutical sectors.
Effective inventory adjustments by exporters.
Quarter Ending December 2024

APAC saw declining prices, dipping from USD 73,850/MT to USD 72,950/MT.

Reasons:

Holiday-season destocking.
Excess inventories.
Neutral demand from domestic and international buyers.
Improved freight efficiencies that reduced cost pressure.

Europe

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Quarter Ending September 2025

Europe registered an 11% quarterly decline in Melatonin prices, driven by:

Weak demand across supplement and wellness segments.
Ample warehouse stocks.
Steady import arrivals sustaining supply levels.
Average price around USD 63,700/MT CFR Rotterdam.
Why Melatonin Prices Changed in September 2025 (Europe)

High inventories reduced buying urgency.
Cautious replenishment by distributors.
Price declines were demand-driven, not cost-driven.

Quarter Ending June 2025

Prices hovered around USD 79,500/MT, supported by:

Consistent demand from pharma, OTC, and wellness markets.
Pre-summer procurement and preparation for Q3 product launches.
Stable CIF cost structures due to smooth logistics and predictable supplier pricing.
Why Prices Changed in July 2025 (Europe)

Distributors engaged in anticipatory restocking, pushing prices slightly higher heading into Q3.

Quarter Ending March 2025

The market showed:

Stable pricing with slight upward bias.
Steady demand from pharmaceutical and wellness industries.
Strategic procurement cycles aimed at preventing supply tightness.
Seasonally driven purchasing behaviour from late winter to early spring.

Quarter Ending December 2024

Q4 reflected:

Early-quarter price increases driven by constrained supply and strong demand.
Mid-quarter tightening of distribution networks.
December moderation as distributors executed inventory reduction programs.
Asian suppliers capturing more market share due to competitive offers.
Historical Quarterly Review (Late 2024-Q3 2025)

Across four quarters, Melatonin pricing demonstrated the following macro trends:

Q4 2024:

Growth in North America and Europe, declines in China due to destocking.

Q1 2025:

Mild global upward momentum supported by seasonal demand and stable inventories.

Q2 2025:

Divergent regional trends-North America strengthened, APAC stabilized at lower levels, Europe showed mild firmness.

Q3 2025:

APAC and Europe corrected downward due to oversupply, while North America maintained slight strength.
Production and Cost Structure Insights

Melatonin production costs remained largely stable across all regions due to:

Stable feedstock availability.
Steady energy costs.
Predictable operational continuity at major plants.
No major policy disruptions affecting production economics.
This cost environment kept price movements tied more to demand cycles and inventory levels than upstream cost inflation.

Procurement Outlook

Looking ahead:

North America

Expected to retain moderate firmness heading into seasonal Q4 demand for wellness and sleep-support supplements.

APAC

Requires inventory normalization for any significant rebound. Modest recovery is possible as autumn procurement resumes.

Europe

Buyers will likely stay cautious, maintaining lean inventory strategies until clearer signals of retail uplift emerge.

Key Procurement Signals:

Avoid speculative buying in APAC due to persistent oversupply.
Time purchases in Europe to coincide with restocking cycles.
Leverage forward contracts in North America during periods of moderate firmness.

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FAQs

What Are the Main Drivers of Melatonin Price Changes?

Demand fluctuations, inventory cycles, export momentum, production rates, and logistics conditions primarily shape pricing.

Why Does APAC Experience More Volatility?

China's role as a major producer creates market sensitivity-oversupply and large inventories frequently pressure prices downward.

Is There Any Cost-Push Risk Ahead?

Current feedstock and energy trends suggest minimal cost-push risk, though long-term macroeconomic changes may influence future pricing.

How Should Buyers Plan Procurement?

Adopt controlled purchasing in oversupplied markets, anticipate seasonal upticks, and monitor regional inventory signals.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers with Real-Time Intelligence

ChemAnalyst empowers procurement teams with the most comprehensive and actionable Melatonin market intelligence available. With real-time price tracking across 450+ commodities, ChemAnalyst delivers:

Live Price Updates with region-wise benchmarking
Quarterly and monthly forecast models to support strategic purchasing
Deep-dive cost analysis and production economics
Monitoring of plant shutdowns, outages, and supply risks
Trade flow intelligence from 50+ major ports worldwide
Expert insights from chemical engineers, economists, and market analysts
ChemAnalyst equips buyers with the intelligence needed to optimize procurement timing, reduce cost exposure, anticipate market shifts, and maintain supply resilience.

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This release was published on openPR.