Track Steel Rebar Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global Steel Rebar market experienced significant volatility throughout late 2024 and 2025, shaped by fluctuating construction activity, rising and falling costs, shifting import-export dynamics, and diverse policy interventions across major economies. By the Quarter Ending September 2025, price behavior varied sharply across regions, with North America showing upward movement, APAC declining, and Europe experiencing sustained downside pressure.

Throughout 2024-2025, Steel Rebar pricing was closely tied to changes in raw material markets (especially , metallics, coke, and billets), domestic production capabilities, logistics conditions, and government measures such as tariffs, quotas, and antidumping duties. Downstream demand remained inconsistent, heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, construction sector performance, and public infrastructure spending cycles.

Introduction

Steel Rebar is a foundational material for construction and infrastructure, making its pricing trajectory fundamental for builders, EPC contractors, traders, procurement teams, and policy planners. Over the past two years, global rebar markets have seen complex interactions between supply-side disruptions, energy market shifts, freight fluctuations, cyclic construction demand, and regulatory interventions that continue to reshape trade patterns.

Rebar markets are regionally sensitive, often driven by domestic availability, mill utilization rates, raw material imports, and local construction sentiments. As such, price trajectories in the USA, Germany, China, and Taiwan often serve as leading indicators for broader global shifts.

This report draws from detailed quarterly datasets to provide a complete landscape of how Steel Rebar pricing evolved through 2024-2025, why prices moved as they did, and what procurement teams should anticipate ahead.

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Global Price Overview

Globally, Steel Rebar markets have moved through alternating phases of demand softness and supply-side pressure:

Key Global Themes (2024-2025)

Oversupply dominated Asia, driven by China's subdued real estate sector and persistent inventory accumulation.
North America saw price support from tariffs, import restrictions, and cost escalation.
Europe faced prolonged weakness due to high inventories, soft private construction activity, and competitive imports filling quotas.
Logistics factors-including port congestion, freight rate fluctuations, and equipment shortages-contributed to cost inflation at different times.
Raw material volatility, especially in and billets, remained a central determinant of short-term price behavior.
Overall, by Q3 2025, the market reflected regional divergence, with policy-driven support in North America, demand-led weakness in APAC, and supply-overhang challenges in Europe.

Regional Analysis

North America | Steel Rebar Price Trend and Forecast

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

North American rebar prices strengthened in Q3 2025, with the Steel Rebar Price Index rising 6.47% QoQ. This upward movement was supported primarily by tariff actions and antidumping rulings, which raised import parity and protected domestic mill offers, preventing further price erosion.

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Key Price Metrics

Average quarterly price: USD 937.67/MT
Spot prices: Stable but well-supported by rising costs
12-week moving averages: Continued rising trend
Drivers Behind the September 2025 Price Increase

Tariff increases raised cost competitiveness of imports, allowing domestic mills more pricing power.
Rising and metallic input costs lifted breakeven levels, contributing directly to firmer transactions.
Low service center inventories and cautious fabricator procurement supported mill pricing.
Infrastructure demand offsetting weak private construction.

Trade & Supply Conditions

Import competition was limited due to enhanced trade remedies.
New long-product capacity introduced moderate headwinds but was muted by tariff barriers.
Mill utilization remained balanced, but demand softness in commercial and residential sectors capped the upside.

Short-Term Forecast

Pricing is expected to remain rangebound with mild upside, contingent on:

Further tightening in markets
Continuation of import barriers
Strength of public infrastructure spending

Q2 2025 (Quarter Ending June 2025)

The region experienced a 1.4% QoQ decline in the Steel Rebar Price Index as inventories grew and downstream demand weakened.

Quarter Dynamics

Early quarter: slight price support from domestic production recovery and low-cost imports from South Korea.
Mid quarter: domestic raw steel output rose (utilization 76-79%), widening the supply-demand gap.
Late quarter: Illinois markets saw spot prices fall into the USD 850-900/MT range.

Cost Trends

Freight and logistics pressures softened but remained elevated compared to pre-2024 levels.

Demand Behavior

Construction demand slowed, with developers delaying projects.
Nucor's earnings slump signaled broader structural softness.

July 2025 Price Surge

In July, U.S. mills (Nucor, Gerdau, Deacero) raised prices by USD 60/ton (~8.5%), lifting the Price Index as buyers rushed to secure material ahead of anticipated policy-related constraints.

Q1 2025 (Quarter Ending March 2025)

The Price Index reached USD 929/MT, up 5% from Q4 2024.

Why Prices Increased in April 2025

Supply chain disruptions
Stronger industrial and construction demand
Limited imports and port congestion
Higher freight rates and logistics inefficiencies
Additional Influences

A strong pipeline of infrastructure projects
A tight market pushing up production costs
Q4 2024 Review

Prices fell 3% QoQ to USD 806/MT, driven by:

Weak demand fundamentals
Oversupply and abundant inventories
Lack of major infrastructure acceleration
The quarter reflected a deep structural imbalance between supply availability and downstream consumption.

Asia-Pacific (APAC) | Steel Rebar Price Trend and Forecast

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

APAC rebar markets were under pressure, with the Price Index in Taiwan declining 6.29% QoQ amid weak construction demand and rising inventories.

Key Price Metrics

Average quarterly price: USD 705.67/MT
Spot prices softened due to ample inflows and high mill output.
Drivers Behind the September 2025 Decline

Weak construction activity and delayed tenders reduced domestic offtake.
Abundant and billet availability reduced cost support.
Regional billet competition and provisional duties redirected exports and depressed margins.
Mills operated without outages, contributing to supply excess.

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Demand Outlook

Sentiment remained weak across Asia due to stagnant real estate activity and insufficient stimulus for infrastructure.

Cost Trends

Despite some firmness in imported billet prices, oversupply diluted cost-push effects.

Q2 2025 (Quarter Ending June 2025)

The Price Index declined ~1% QoQ as oversupply persisted.

Quarter Highlights

Early Q2: Taiwanese mills hiked rebar prices due to elevated input costs.
Mid/Late Q2: Chinese imports increased supply pressure.
Inventory levels remained elevated across the region.

Why Prices Rose in July 2025

Early July: Chinese domestic rebar prices increased modestly.
Steel futures advanced slightly from June.
Expectations of production cuts in coke/coking coal supported cost-push recovery.

Q1 2025 (Quarter Ending March 2025)

APAC's Price Index stood at USD 458/MT, down 2.3% QoQ due to persistent oversupply.

Why Prices Declined in April 2025

Weak construction demand in China
Significant surplus inventory
Market confidence weakened by lack of stimulus

Cost Trends

Rising energy & raw material costs
But oversupply overshadowed any potential cost-driven price increases

Q4 2024 Review

The APAC market remained bearish, with:

Oversupply from China
Weakened construction demand
Rising input costs that mills were unable to pass through
Prices ended at USD 478/MT Ex Shanghai.

Europe | Steel Rebar Price Trend and Forecast

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

Germany's Steel Rebar Price Index fell 4.78% QoQ due to weak construction demand and elevated inventories.

Key Price Metrics

Average quarterly price: USD 771/MT
Spot prices pressured by surplus inventory and weak bids.
Drivers Behind September 2025 Price Decline

High inventories kept distributors destocking.
Competitive imports increased due to quota resets.
Private housing demand remained weak.

Cost & Supply Dynamics

Energy tariffs fluctuated but generally stable.
Mills faced squeezed margins from low bids and persistent competition.

Q2 2025 (Quarter Ending June 2025)

Prices declined 7.3% QoQ, reflecting supply pressure and sluggish demand.

Quarter Dynamics

Cheaper imports from Turkey, Egypt, Algeria escalated competition.
Weak private construction in Germany, Italy, France.
Excess stock and summer-season lull dragged down the Price Index.

Why Prices Declined in July 2025

Weak purchasing sentiment
Steady supply availability
Low urgency among buyers
Q1 2025 (Quarter Ending March 2025)

Prices rose 4.3% QoQ to USD 873/MT.

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Why Prices Increased in April 2025

Freight cost inflation
Port congestion and equipment shortages
Tight supply due to EU ETS compliance costs
Limited availability boosted spot pricing
Q4 2024 Review

Prices fell 3% in late Q4 to USD 806/MT, driven by:

Weak construction activity
Regulatory uncertainties in EU markets
Oversupply that outpaced production cuts
Production, Cost Structure & Supply Chain Insights

Key Cost Drivers Across Regions

Billet import trends
Energy tariffs and carbon compliance costs (Europe)
Freight and logistics (North America & Europe)
Equipment shortages and port congestion (global)

Supply-Side Themes (2024-2025)

Mills in APAC maintained high output despite weak demand.
North America's supply was constrained by import barriers.
European producers faced strong competition from low-cost imports.
Inventory cycles played a major role in quarter-to-quarter pricing.
Procurement Behavior and Market Sentiment

Observed Procurement Patterns

North America: Buyers accelerated purchasing following tariff announcements and mill price hikes.
APAC: Distributors avoided restocking amid falling prices.
Europe: Destocking dominated as buyers capitalized on competitive import offers.

Forecast Procurement Strategy

Procurement teams are advised to:

Track import parity and landed cost calculations.
Monitor policy announcements (tariffs, quotas, duties).
Time purchasing around inventory cycles and seasonal demand patterns.
Steel Rebar Price Forecast (Short to Medium Term)

North America

Mild upside expected, driven by tariffs, infrastructure spending, and costs.

APAC

Prices likely to remain soft unless:

China introduces stimulus, or
Export demand rises meaningfully.
Europe

Subdued pricing expected due to weak construction demand and ample supply.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why did Steel Rebar prices rise in North America in September 2025?
Due to tariffs, antidumping rulings, rising costs, and low inventories supporting domestic mill pricing.

Why did Steel Rebar prices fall in APAC during the same period?
Weak construction demand, high inventories, and abundant billet inflows pressured prices.

What caused the price decline in Europe in September 2025?
Elevated inventories, weak construction activity, and competitive imports.

How did logistics impact global Rebar prices?
Port congestion, freight rate swings, and equipment shortages contributed to cost inflation.

Will Steel Rebar prices recover in 2026?
Recovery depends on construction activity rebound, government stimulus, and market trends.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Steel Rebar Buyers

ChemAnalyst empowers procurement teams, traders, and supply-chain strategists with:

✔ Real-time Prices & Global Indices

Track rebar prices across North America, APAC, Europe, and the Middle East with weekly and monthly updates.

✔ Price Forecasting

Models built by economists, chemical engineers, and market specialists provide actionable short-term and long-term forecasts.

✔ Demand & Supply Tracking

Coverage across 450+ commodities helps buyers identify upcoming supply disruptions, demand surges, and trade risks.

✔ Plant-Level Intelligence

Including plant shutdowns, maintenance schedules, expansions, and outages-critical for anticipating supply constraints.

✔ Trade Flow Analytics

Monitor how tariffs, duties, quotas, and cross-border movements influence effective and landed costs.

✔ Ground-Level Market Validation

With teams stationed across major global trading ports-Houston, Busan, Shanghai, Rotterdam, Jebel Ali, Antwerp, Hamburg-ChemAnalyst delivers firsthand intelligence that enhances purchasing decisions.

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Conclusion

Steel Rebar markets remain deeply sensitive to input costs, construction demand cycles, trade dynamics, and policy frameworks. The years 2024-2025 highlighted a period of regional divergence, with North America supported by policy interventions, APAC constrained by oversupply, and Europe weighed down by persistent inventory and import challenges.

As markets move into the next cycle, procurement teams must rely on credible, real-time data and forecasting tools to navigate volatility. ChemAnalyst stands as the premier source of such intelligence, equipping buyers with clarity, foresight, and the ability to secure optimal purchasing decisions in a rapidly evolving global steel environment.

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This release was published on openPR.