Track Cardboard Price Trend and Forecast Across Major Producers: Index, News, Monitor, and Demand Report

Cardboard Price Trend and Forecast: Global Market Analysis, Quarterly Movements, and Procurement Outlook

Executive Summary

The global cardboard market in 2024-2025 exhibited substantial price variability driven by shifting demand cycles, fluctuating raw material costs, logistics disruptions, and evolving procurement behaviors across major economies. While North America experienced moderate price increases through Q3 2025 supported by tighter supply and rising production costs, APAC registered price softness due to weak packaging demand and easing input prices. Europe, meanwhile, saw sharp quarterly surges attributed to energy inflation, pulp volatility, and recurring port disruptions.

Across regions, the Cardboard Price Index reflected distinct market fundamentals shaped by domestic manufacturing conditions, wastepaper and pulp availability, mill operating strategies, and downstream end-use performance-particularly in e-commerce, FMCG, food packaging, and industrial applications. Forecasts indicate a cautiously optimistic trajectory heading into late 2025, with seasonal restocking, energy market stability, and improved logistics expected to influence price movements.

This comprehensive PR-style report provides a detailed review of historical quarterly dynamics, current pricing patterns, cost structure insights, global supply conditions, procurement sentiment, and future market expectations. It concludes with an overview of how ChemAnalyst supports organizations with real-time price intelligence, data analytics, and procurement-ready forecasting tools.

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Introduction

Cardboard, an essential material for packaging, transportation, e-commerce fulfillment, retail operations, and fast-moving consumer goods, remains highly sensitive to supply-chain disruptions, energy prices, and recycling dynamics. With more than 90% of cardboard manufactured using recycled materials or recovered paper, the industry is intricately linked to collection efficiency, wastepaper supply, pulp imports, and freight costs. Macroeconomic conditions-such as global commodity inflation, labor shortages, and logistics congestion-continue to influence price direction and procurement behavior globally.

The period from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025 was characterized by dramatic swings in the Cardboard Price Index, reflecting volatile energy markets, uneven demand cycles across geographies, and shifting consumer spending patterns. This report analyzes these developments in detail, providing procurement professionals, supply chain managers, and industry participants with a structured and data-driven perspective on the evolving cardboard pricing environment.

Global Price Overview

The global cardboard market showed mixed performance across regions:

North America experienced steady-to-rising prices supported by mill curtailments, rising energy expenses, and stronger e-commerce-led demand.
APAC displayed weakness with subdued packaging orders, large inventory overhangs, and ample pulp availability.
Europe recorded the sharpest price movements due to freight bottlenecks, elevated input costs, and volatile recovered paper collections.
Overall, raw material fundamentals-particularly wastepaper availability, pulp import flows, and energy pricing-remained the primary drivers of global cardboard pricing. Seasonal restocking, packaging industry consumption, and logistics pressures also contributed to pricing fluctuations across quarters.

Regional Market Analysis

North America Market Analysis

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

The North American cardboard market showed a 2.99% quarter-over-quarter increase in the U.S. Cardboard Price Index. The average cardboard price climbed to USD 573.33/MT, influenced by elevated input costs-namely recycled fiber scarcity and energy volatility.

Reasons Behind Price Movements

Tighter supply due to mill curtailments, closures, and maintenance shutdowns reduced availability.
Increased production costs caused by high recycled fiber and energy prices led mills to apply temporary surcharges.
Improving demand resulted from strong e-commerce and retail restocking activity in September.
Logistics constraints and export upticks supported spot pricing.

Market Conditions

Spot prices strengthened as mills adjusted throughput.
Seasonal restocking increased procurement intensity.
Rising exports helped reduce accumulated domestic inventories.
Price forecasts indicate continued moderate upside through autumn due to ongoing surcharges and supply discipline.

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Q2 2025 (April-June 2025)

North American prices fluctuated considerably:

April & May: Price Index declined due to oversupply, weak export sentiment, and demand softness in electronics, automotive packaging, and e-commerce.
June 2025: Price Index rebounded 4% to USD 569/MT, supported by higher raw material and energy costs, stronger e-commerce demand, and new import tariffs that made input materials costlier.

Why Did Prices Change in July 2025?

Momentum from June's cost-driven surge supported early-July prices.
Smaller buyers delayed procurement later in July seeking market stabilization.
Supply discipline prevented oversupply conditions, creating a stable-to-slightly bullish outlook.

Q1 2025 (January-March 2025)

Q1 was a stabilization phase:

Cardboard prices fell marginally by 0.47% from Q4 2024.
Average prices: USD 560/MT.
January restocking boosted early demand, but conditions normalized afterward.
Rising pulp prices contributed to cost-side pressures.

Procurement Trends

Buyers maintained cautious purchasing strategies.
Inventory management was emphasized due to economic uncertainties.
Forecasts indicated slight declines in spring followed by a modest summer rebound.

Q4 2024 (October-December 2024)

This quarter displayed pronounced variability:

October-November: Prices rose sharply due to strong demand in e-commerce, food & beverage, and consumer goods sectors. AF&PA reported 14.5% growth in U.S. packaging paper shipments.
Increased production costs and reduced raw material inventories heightened pricing.
December: Prices declined as post-holiday demand dropped and manufacturers reduced output to balance supply.

APAC Market Analysis

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

The APAC region, led by China, recorded a 1.74% quarter-over-quarter decline in the Cardboard Price Index, driven by weak domestic demand.

Key Factors Influencing Prices

Average quarterly price: USD 225.67/MT.
Eased port congestion allowed inventory destocking.
Ample pulp supplies kept production costs in check.
Downstream packaging demand remained muted, especially post-Golden Week.

Why Did Prices Change in September 2025?

Weak buyer sentiment and cautious restocking kept demand subdued.
Wastepaper supply constraints raised operational costs slightly, prompting selective price adjustments.
Logistics challenges intermittently tightened supply, but not enough to reverse overall downward pressure.

Q2 2025 (April-June 2025)

APAC market conditions reflected significant oversupply:

April: Continued declines due to excess stock and weak packaging demand.
May: Price Index fell an additional 2.2%, following lower pulp costs and sluggish industrial output.
June: Prices dropped to USD 234/MT FOB Shanghai, despite global pulp disruptions-indicating demand weakness overshadowed supply issues.

Why Did Prices Change in July 2025?

The market reached equilibrium: modest restocking balanced persistent oversupply.
Forecasts for Q3 suggested flat or mildly positive trends depending on export recovery and raw material costs.

Q1 2025 (January-March 2025)

APAC saw mixed dynamics:

Prices fell 0.93% from Q4 2024 to an average of USD 247.67/MT.
Government packaging subsidies supported demand temporarily.
Export-driven stockpiling provided intermittent price support.
Seasonal consumption patterns kept the market stable despite post-holiday softness.

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Q4 2024 (October-December 2024)

This quarter witnessed a classic inventory-driven cycle:

October-November: Large mills raised prices, and smaller mills followed. Wastepaper shortages in Zhejiang tightened supply.
December: Demand declined sharply after holiday consumption, leaving oversupply and pushing prices downward.

Europe Market Analysis

Q3 2025 (Quarter Ending September 2025)

Europe-particularly Germany-saw a 6.23% quarter-over-quarter increase in the Cardboard Price Index.

Key Drivers

Average quarterly price reached USD 278.67/MT.
Rising energy and pulp costs significantly inflated production expenses.
Hamburg port congestion disrupted logistics and reduced shipments.
Selective mill shutdowns contributed to tight supply.
Food packaging and FMCG sectors provided steady demand despite industrial order slowdowns.

Why Did Prices Change in September 2025?

Constrained recovered paper collections delayed raw material inputs.
Freight rate volatility added cost pressure.
Buyers front-loaded orders, creating erratic availability and supporting short-term price resilience.

Q2 2025 (April-June 2025)

Q2 witnessed sharp upward momentum:

April: Higher recovered paper costs drove price increases.
May: A further 1.9% rise due to severe congestion at Hamburg port.
June: Prices surged 9.4% to USD 286/MT, fueled by energy and pulp volatility.

Why Did Prices Rise Further in July 2025?

Persistent logistics constraints and inflationary input costs kept supply tight.
Demand remained strong across FMCG, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce.
Labor shortages and port issues continued to restrict production efficiency.

Q1 2025 (January-March 2025)

Europe recorded a steady quarter:

Prices rose 1.17% from Q4 2024.
Average prices: USD 230.67/MT.
Inventory discipline and strong export orders supported market stability.
Energy and pulp costs created persistent upward cost pressure.
Q4 2024 (October-December 2024)

Price movements were substantial:

October-November: Prices rose sharply due to cost inflation and eco-friendly packaging demand.
December: Prices dropped as post-holiday consumption weakened and retailers reduced order volumes.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Across all regions, cardboard production costs in 2024-2025 were shaped by:

Recovered Paper/Wastepaper Availability

A primary cost driver globally.
Scarcity in North America and Europe raised costs.
Oversupply in China during Q2 2025 kept prices depressed.

Pulp Price Volatility

Influenced by global trade flows, strikes (e.g., Finland), and import dependency.
Coniferous and broadleaf pulp declines aided APAC cost relief.

Energy Costs

Europe faced the highest energy pressure.
North America experienced periodic spikes.
APAC benefited from more stable energy conditions.

Logistics and Freight

Hamburg congestion emerged as a major European bottleneck.
Port delays in China intermittently tightened supply.
North America experienced domestic freight cost inflation.

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Procurement Outlook

Heading into late 2025:

North America

Expect moderate price growth due to supply discipline and high input costs.
E-commerce-led demand will offset weaker industrial orders.
Buyers should monitor mill maintenance schedules and export trends.

APAC

Prices likely to remain stable with mild upward risk from festival restocking.
Oversupply conditions may persist unless exports recover.
Procurement teams should leverage low-cost windows for bulk purchasing.

Europe

Continued volatility likely from energy markets and port disruptions.
FMCG and food packaging demand will stabilize consumption.
Buyers should anticipate temporary surcharges and maintain flexible procurement cycles.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why did cardboard prices rise in North America in September 2025?
Supply constraints from mill curtailments, higher energy costs, and stronger e-commerce demand pushed prices upward.

Why did cardboard prices fall in APAC in Q3 2025?
Weak packaging demand, ample pulp supplies, and inventory overhang led to downward pressure on prices.

Why did Europe experience such sharp price increases in 2025?
Europe faced high energy costs, volatile pulp prices, port congestion, and strong demand, creating sustained upward pricing.

What are the key cost drivers in the cardboard market?
Recovered paper availability, energy prices, pulp imports, and logistics efficiency are the primary determinants.

What is the price forecast for cardboard going into late 2025?
Moderate-to-stable growth globally, with North America and Europe showing upward bias, while APAC remains mixed.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers with Real-Time Price Intelligence

ChemAnalyst empowers procurement professionals, supply chain planners, and market strategists with comprehensive, data-driven insights into global cardboard pricing and market dynamics. Through real-time updates, weekly pricing assessments, and detailed supply-demand analytics, ChemAnalyst ensures that businesses stay ahead of market volatility and sourcing challenges.

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Why Leading Companies Trust ChemAnalyst

Real-time market news covering more than 450 commodities.
Accurate and transparent price data with detailed explanations behind every major price move.
Forward-looking price forecasts enabling strategic procurement planning.
Plant shutdown tracking to anticipate supply risks.
Expert analysis from chemical engineers, economists, and market specialists.
Ground teams across 50+ major ports, including Houston, Shanghai, Busan, Antwerp, and Hamburg, providing first-hand insights.
Global presence with offices in Houston, Cologne, and New Delhi ensures integrated market coverage.
With ChemAnalyst's intelligence, procurement teams can optimize purchase timing, mitigate supply chain risks, and achieve cost efficiency in an increasingly volatile global market.

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