Australian Mortgage Market: Forecasts And Future Opportunities 2016

Summary

We estimate that growth in the value of balances outstanding for both owner-occupier and investment residential mortgages will be 6.1% in 2016, a slight decrease on the strong performance in 2015. The market will continue to decelerate over the forecast period as owner-occupier growth tapers off and investment property lending fails to make up for the slack.

Key Findings

- First-time buyers remain the weakest part of the market, accounting for just 14.8% of gross advances in 2015.

- Growth in investment property lending flatlined in light of Australian Prudential Regulation Authority restrictions, with owner-occupier lending surging at the same time.

- Lending to foreign buyers is up considerably, but the majors have pulled back from foreign investors in light of fraud and the potential oversupply of apartments in key investment markets.

- Refinancing has continued to gain as a share of gross advances, increasing the churn in the market and contributing to net interest margin compression.

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Synopsis

Verdict Financials Australian Mortgage Market: Forecasts and Future Opportunities 2016 analyzes the Australian residential mortgage market, with coverage of both the investment property and owner-occupier market, including first-time buyers.

Specifically the report:

- Analyzes relative performance of the major sectors of the Australian mortgage market, including both mutual and bank as well as non-ADI lenders.

- Reviews the drivers behind recent market performance.

- Forecasts balances outstanding for both mutual and bank lenders, looking at the evolving growth of the investment property, owner-occupier, and first home buyer segments.

- Forecasts future drivers of growth and product features.

Reasons To Buy

- Which factors will impact the supply of mortgage lending?

- Which factors will affect consumer demand for mortgages?

- Which sectors offer the best prospects and opportunities for expansion over the next few years?

- What will be the market share of key mortgage sectors over the next few years?

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