Autonomous Freight Trucks Industry Research: Reach USD 1489 Million by 2031 at 21.1% CAGR

According to the latest industry outlook from QYResearch, the global Autonomous Freight Trucks market is expected to grow from US$398 million in 2024 to US$1,489 million by 2031, at a 21.1% CAGR (2025-2031). The period of 2024-2025 has marked a transition from extended pilot programs to the first waves of commercial deployment. This shift is underscored by the launch of driverless freight services, factory production of autonomous-ready platforms, and accelerated adoption in logistics and port operations.

Recent guidance puts revenue at US$0.65-0.85 per mile for Driver-as-a-Service. Using public breakdowns, a reasonable early-scale cost stack is roughly US$0.25-0.50 per mile (hardware & redundancy amortization ≈ $0.10-0.20/mi; remote/onsite support ≈ $0.05-0.20/mi; connectivity/maps/insurance/admin ≈ $0.05-0.10/mi). That implies gross profit of about US$0.15-0.60 per mile and a gross margin band of ~25%-60% (most likely 35%-45% near-term, with room to expand as sensor costs fall and support ratios improve).

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Leading Companies

Volvo
Daimler
TuSimple
Tesla
Waymo
Westwell
PlusAI
Pony.ai
Kodiak Robotics
Suzhou Zhitu Technology
Inceptio Technology
BYD

Applications

Logistics
Port
Other

Classification

New Energy Trucks
Traditional Fuel Trucks

Latest Data

· Market size: US$398 million in 2024, projected to reach US$1,489 million by 2031

· CAGR: 21.1% (2025-2031)

· Regional expansion across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and the Middle East & Africa

· Segment coverage: by Type (New Energy vs. Traditional Fuel) and by Application (Logistics, Port, Other)

· Leading companies capturing the majority of market share, with Volvo at the forefront of 2024 sales

Five Company Product Profiles

Volvo - Volvo VNL Autonomous

· Integrated with the Aurora Driver autonomy stack

· Equipped with long-range lidar (~500 m), radar, and camera systems

· Pilot production initiated at the New River Valley plant for factory calibration and process validation

· Commercial debut in May 2024 with scaling planned through 2025

Daimler - Autonomous-Ready Freightliner Cascadia

· Fifth-generation model with redundant braking and steering systems

· Production-intent autonomy hardware directly installed during manufacturing

· Active testing on Southwest U.S. routes, including Laredo-Dallas lanes

· Market entry for SAE Level 4 hub-to-hub trucking targeted for 2027

Kodiak Robotics - Sixth-Generation Autonomous Truck

· Production-ready platform revealed at CES 2024

· Deployed in Atlas Energy Solutions' customer-owned "RoboTruck" fleet

· Completed over 100 fully driverless commercial deliveries in early 2025

· Expansion to near 24/7 operations in Permian Basin freight lanes

Westwell - Q-Truck Autonomous Tractor

· Port-focused electric and autonomous tractor for container handling

· Achieved more than 334,000 container moves at Hutchison Ports' Laem Chabang terminal

· 2025 marked by repeat orders and new trials at CSP ADT and HIT terminals

· Energy-efficient operation with measurable reductions in per-container costs

Inceptio Technology - Xuanyuan Platform

· Recorded over 200 million kilometers of supervised commercial operations by late 2024

· Collaborative deliveries with Dongfeng Trucks into major express fleets, including STO Express

· Expanding large-scale supervised autonomy to accelerate validation for Level 4 readiness

· Positioned as one of China's largest data-driven platforms for heavy truck autonomy

Downstream Customers

Atlas Energy Solutions
Uber Freight
Hirschbach Motor Lines
Schneider National
C.R. England
J.B. Hunt Transport Services
Werner Enterprises
FedEx
UPS
PSA International
Hutchison Ports
STO Express
JD Logistics
ZTO Express
Nestlé China

Market Trends

Commercial Driverless Becomes Reality

In 2025, the industry witnessed the launch of the first commercial driverless freight lanes. Aurora began driverless operations between Dallas and Houston, with plans to expand to El Paso and Phoenix by year-end. The company has reported more than 10,000 customer loads and over three million supervised autonomous miles leading up to the driver-out milestone, signaling the maturity of its operational model.

Customer-Owned Driverless Fleets

For the first time, customer-owned driverless fleets entered revenue service. Kodiak Robotics and Atlas Energy Solutions launched a dedicated fleet of RoboTrucks, completing 100 fully driverless loads in Texas. Additional trucks delivered in mid-2025 enabled nearly continuous service windows, showing that autonomous freight is no longer just operator-led but part of customer capital investments.

Factory Integration of Autonomy

Volvo and Daimler both transitioned from retrofits to factory-installed autonomous systems. Volvo began pilot production of its VNL Autonomous at the New River Valley plant, focusing on calibration and redundancy. Daimler introduced the autonomous-ready Freightliner Cascadia, equipped with redundant safety systems and production-intent autonomy hardware. This step reduces aftermarket complexity and ensures scalability in manufacturing.

Hub-to-Hub Operations

Hub-to-hub corridors continue to dominate deployment strategies. Aurora's Dallas-Houston route, Daimler and Torc's Laredo-Dallas lane, and Kodiak's industrial sand transport routes illustrate that repeatable, high-volume logistics lanes provide the most efficient and controlled environment for autonomy. These routes bypass urban density and focus on long-haul efficiencies.

Ports as Early Adopters

Ports remain the most advanced environments for autonomous truck deployment. Westwell's Q-Truck has moved over 334,000 containers in Laem Chabang since 2020, and 2025 saw repeat orders and trials at major terminals. Port environments offer controlled conditions, predictable duty cycles, and ideal conditions for combining electrification with autonomy.

Scale of Supervised Autonomy in China

In China, Inceptio Technology expanded its supervised operations to more than 200 million commercial kilometers by 2024. Partnering with OEMs such as Dongfeng and customers like STO Express, the company is leveraging L2+/L3 operations at scale to shorten the validation curve for Level 4 readiness. This model highlights how large supervised datasets reduce edge-case risks.

Industry Consolidation

The competitive landscape has narrowed. Some early entrants have paused or withdrawn their programs, leaving a more concentrated set of players such as Aurora, Volvo, Daimler/Torc, Kodiak, and Inceptio. This consolidation directs capital and expertise toward a smaller number of commercialization strategies, improving clarity in market direction.

Regulation and Safety Standards

Texas continues to lead as the most permissive jurisdiction for driverless trucking. At the same time, new oversight in 2025 has introduced reporting requirements, cybersecurity standards, and operational domain rules. Companies now routinely publish detailed safety case documentation, improving transparency and reinforcing trust among regulators and shippers.

Convergence of Autonomy and Electrification

Beyond diesel platforms, manufacturers are exploring the integration of zero-emission powertrains with autonomy. Daimler demonstrated an autonomous eCascadia concept, highlighting a future where electric drivetrains align with autonomy in middle-mile and port applications. This convergence points to sustainability benefits as regulatory pressure on emissions grows.

Conclusion

The year 2025 marks a turning point for autonomous freight trucks. Commercial driverless launches, customer-owned fleets, OEM factory production, and large-scale data operations in China have accelerated industry confidence. With growth expected to multiply nearly fourfold by 2031, the market now moves beyond speculation into tangible adoption. Logistics and port applications are leading the way, while hub-to-hub operations and OEM readiness create a roadmap for the next phase of freight automation worldwide.

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