Press release
Ductless Heat Pumps Market to Reach $30.3 Billion by 2035 at 9.2% CAGR
Despite its bright outlook, the market does face certain challenges. High installation costs remain a barrier, particularly in price-sensitive markets, while a shortage of skilled installers has created backlogs in several regions. Additionally, competition from conventional HVAC systems persists, though ductless heat pumps continue to gain ground due to their superior efficiency and flexibility.
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Competitive Landscape and Market Insights
The ductless heat pump market is shaped by the presence of global giants alongside strong regional players. Companies such as Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric, and LG Electronics dominate the sector, benefiting from their wide portfolios, brand recognition, and emphasis on innovation. Many leading firms are integrating smart home technologies into their systems, ensuring greater efficiency and user convenience. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions are also playing a role in strengthening competitive positions across global markets.
Recent developments highlight the industry's direction. For instance, LG Electronics announced in May 2025 that it would expand its global HVAC training network to address the skilled labor shortage. By the end of the year, the company plans to run 70 HVAC academies worldwide, training more than 37,000 professionals annually in installation, maintenance, and system design. Similarly, Trane Technologies has pushed forward with its sustainability agenda by switching to low-GWP refrigerants like R-454B, which has 78% lower global warming potential compared to traditional options. Trane has also secured cybersecurity certifications for its digital control systems, underlining the growing importance of product security in an increasingly connected HVAC landscape.
Market Drivers Fueling Growth
The key force behind the expansion of ductless heat pumps is the global emphasis on energy efficiency. Advanced inverter-driven compressors and Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) systems allow precise adjustments to match real-time heating and cooling demands. These technologies can deliver energy savings of up to 30% compared to conventional HVAC systems, with some ENERGY STAR-certified models cutting energy consumption for heating by as much as 60%. With energy costs rising, the appeal of such savings is significant for both households and businesses.
The construction and retrofit market is another strong driver. As new building projects expand across both residential and commercial sectors, ductless systems are being widely specified due to their flexibility, cost-effectiveness, and energy performance. At the same time, retrofitting older buildings that lack ductwork has emerged as a major opportunity, particularly in Europe and North America, where aging housing stock often cannot support traditional HVAC systems.
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Why Are Ductless Heat Pumps Gaining Popularity Over Traditional HVAC Systems?
Ductless heat pumps are increasingly preferred because they provide efficient heating and cooling without the need for extensive ductwork. Unlike traditional systems, they allow zoning, meaning different rooms can be heated or cooled independently, enhancing comfort and reducing energy waste. Their efficiency, flexibility, and suitability for both new builds and retrofits make them particularly attractive in regions focusing on sustainability and cost savings.
Regional Market Overview
North America is witnessing strong adoption, driven by government incentives and stricter energy efficiency standards. Federal programs under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have made these systems more affordable, offering rebates and tax credits. For instance, homeowners can receive up to USD 2,000 annually in tax credits for qualifying heat pump installations, while low- and moderate-income households can access rebates up to USD 8,000 through the High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate Act (HEEHRA). Advances in cold-climate heat pump technology are also boosting adoption in colder regions, proving their performance even at sub-zero temperatures.
Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing and largest regional market, thanks to rapid urbanization, strong economic growth, and rising disposable incomes. China, in particular, dominates due to its advanced manufacturing capabilities, supportive policies, and increasing domestic demand. Companies like Midea and Gree are leading innovation while expanding global exports. Japan, South Korea, and India are also emerging as strong markets, supported by investments in infrastructure and rising demand for energy-efficient technologies.
Europe presents another important growth hub, with Germany at the forefront. The country's stringent climate policies and government subsidies under programs like the Federal Funding for Efficient Buildings (BEG) are fueling demand for heat pumps as part of the nation's decarbonization strategy. Manufacturers such as Vaillant, Viessmann, and Bosch are global leaders in developing systems suited for Europe's colder climates, further enhancing adoption rates.
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Segmental Highlights
Among product types, split systems dominate the ductless heat pumps market. Their flexibility in installation, ability to provide zoned comfort, and strong energy efficiency make them the preferred choice across residential and commercial settings. Inverter-driven split systems in particular are capable of saving 30-55% more energy compared to conventional HVAC units.
The residential sector holds the largest share of market demand. Homeowners are increasingly attracted to ductless systems due to their quiet operation, cost-effectiveness, and ease of retrofitting in homes without ductwork. Rising energy costs and consumer awareness about environmental issues further reinforce this trend, making ductless heat pumps an attractive alternative to traditional systems.
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Rotary Heat Pump Compressor Market: https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/rotary-heat-pump-compressor-market-6204
Heat Pump Coil Market: https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/heat-pump-coil-market-6206
Waste Heat Recovery Market: https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/waste-heat-recovery-market-6189
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