Renewable Energy Certificate Market to Reach USD 64.6 Billion by 2035 with 10.8% CAGR Driven by Global Demand

The renewable energy certificate (REC) market is entering a transformative phase, with its value projected to grow from USD 23.2 billion in 2025 to USD 64.6 billion by 2035, advancing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.8%. This expansion underscores the pivotal role RECs play in both compliance-driven and voluntary renewable energy procurement, offering organizations a flexible path to decarbonization.

The early years from 2020 to 2025 marked an acceleration phase, as the market rose from USD 13.9 billion to USD 23.2 billion. Large technology companies and multinational corporations were among the first movers, purchasing RECs to meet renewable portfolio standards and voluntary climate commitments. Between 2026 and 2030, the market is expected to advance from USD 25.7 billion to USD 38.7 billion, driven by stricter corporate disclosure requirements and the expansion of REC trading platforms across Asia-Pacific and emerging markets. By 2035, the industry will see its most robust growth phase, propelled by standardized global frameworks and digital verification tools such as blockchain and AI.

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Key Role in Global Energy Transition

The REC market contributes approximately 9-11% of the global renewable power trading ecosystem, carving out an important space alongside power purchase agreements and feed-in tariffs. Within compliance frameworks, RECs account for 10-12% of renewable energy adoption, ensuring utilities meet their mandated clean energy targets. In the voluntary market, RECs hold an even stronger share at 15-17%, reflecting growing corporate and institutional interest in offsetting carbon footprints.

For companies seeking to demonstrate measurable progress on sustainability goals, RECs provide a transparent and tradable solution. They are now a core element of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reporting strategies, representing around 6-7% of the corporate sustainability tracking framework. This blend of compliance and voluntary drivers ensures RECs remain an essential part of the renewable transition worldwide.

Why the REC Market is Growing

Momentum in the REC market is being fueled by three interlocking factors: corporate climate pledges, supportive policy frameworks, and technological innovation. Net-zero commitments from global brands in technology, manufacturing, and retail are spurring long-term REC purchases, while governments continue to mandate renewable portfolio standards that require utilities to acquire certificates.

Digital trading platforms and blockchain-backed verification tools have also emerged as key enablers, ensuring transparency, reducing risks of double counting, and building trust among buyers and sellers. These developments are creating deeper liquidity in REC markets and expanding participation beyond multinational corporations to include small businesses, universities, municipalities, and even households.

Segment Insights

In 2025, projects under 5 MW capacity will dominate, accounting for 41% of REC revenues. This reflects the rapid expansion of distributed solar installations, micro-hydro plants, and community wind projects that are easier to finance and deploy. Their proximity to end users also enhances energy security while reducing transmission losses.

On the demand side, voluntary purchases will lead the market with 57% of the revenue share. This is being driven by organizations that are proactively going beyond compliance to reinforce sustainability credentials and align with consumer expectations. In terms of energy sources, solar projects will lead the way, contributing 48% of total REC issuance in 2025. Favorable economics, scalability, and government incentives have positioned solar as the most visible and widely adopted renewable resource globally.

Regional Growth Outlook

China is projected to lead REC market growth with a CAGR of 14.6% between 2025 and 2035. Nationwide renewable quotas, rapid solar and wind deployment, and government-backed trading platforms are boosting adoption. India follows closely with a CAGR of 13.5%, driven by large-scale solar parks and growing corporate ESG commitments.

In Europe, France (11.3%) and the UK (10.3%) are strengthening REC demand through EU compliance frameworks and corporate procurement programs. Meanwhile, the United States maintains steady progress at 9.2%, supported by voluntary corporate demand and state-level renewable portfolio standards. Collectively, these regional dynamics reinforce Asia-Pacific as the dominant growth hub, Europe as the compliance-driven stronghold, and North America as a steady but slower-growth player.

Competitive Landscape

The REC market is shaped by a mix of renewable energy leaders, integrated energy traders, and sustainability service providers. NextEra Energy leverages its vast renewable generation capacity to supply large REC volumes in North America. 3Degrees, Inc. plays a pivotal role by combining certificate procurement with corporate sustainability advisory services. Ecohz focuses on Europe, delivering traceable and verifiable RECs aligned with ESG reporting requirements.

Statkraft, a major hydropower producer, provides certificates across multiple European markets, while Shell Energy and EDF Trading integrate renewable generation with REC trading. Global giants such as Enel, Iberdrola, and Ørsted also dominate through large renewable portfolios, enabling them to issue significant volumes of RECs tied to wind, solar, and offshore projects.

Established players are emphasizing long-term corporate contracts and advanced verification systems, while emerging players are tapping into digital trading, community-scale renewables, and regional green programs. This balance of legacy strength and new innovation is broadening access and reinforcing REC adoption worldwide.

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Looking Ahead

The renewable energy certificate market is entering a critical decade in which transparency, digital innovation, and international alignment will define its success. As corporations seek flexible tools to demonstrate renewable electricity usage, and as policymakers continue to tighten climate frameworks, the role of RECs will only expand.

Both established energy leaders and new entrants are working to scale renewable generation, enhance trading platforms, and secure trust through blockchain-enabled verification. With demand surging across voluntary and compliance markets, the REC industry is positioned as one of the cornerstones of the global energy transition.

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