US Thermal Power Market Expected to Reach US$ 251.9 Mn by 2031 with 2.4% CAGR Growth - Persistence Market Research

➤Overview of the Market

The US thermal power market plays a crucial role in the nation's energy mix, serving as a stable and reliable source of electricity despite the rise of renewables. Thermal power plants in the US rely primarily on coal, natural gas, and oil to generate electricity, with natural gas emerging as the dominant fuel source due to its affordability, efficiency, and lower carbon footprint compared to coal. According to the latest study by Persistence Market Research, the US thermal power market is projected to reach US$ 213.4 Mn by 2024 and expand at a CAGR of 2.4% from 2024 to 2031, achieving a valuation of US$ 251.9 Mn by 2031. This steady growth is fueled by the increasing demand for electricity from industries, residential sectors, and data centers that require reliable and continuous energy supply.

The market's resilience stems from its ability to provide base-load electricity and balance intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar. Natural gas-fired plants lead the segment, largely due to the shale gas boom and availability of abundant domestic resources. Geographically, the southern United States dominates the thermal power market, supported by significant natural gas reserves, strong industrial bases, and favorable infrastructure. The Midwest also contributes notably, given its coal-fired power plants that continue to serve rural and industrial regions. Despite challenges from decarbonization policies, thermal power remains essential for energy security and grid stability, making it an indispensable part of the US electricity sector.

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➤Key Market Insights

• Natural gas-based thermal power plants dominate due to their efficiency and lower emissions compared to coal.
• The southern US leads in thermal power generation, supported by abundant natural gas infrastructure.
• The market is projected to grow at 2.4% CAGR, reaching US$ 251.9 Mn by 2031.
• Rising electricity demand from industrial operations and data centers drives growth.
• Transition toward cleaner thermal power technologies is shaping long-term market strategies.

➤What is driving the growth of the US thermal power market despite renewable energy expansion?

The US thermal power market continues to grow because thermal plants provide base-load stability and backup power for intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. While renewables are expanding, they remain variable and dependent on weather conditions, making reliable thermal plants crucial for maintaining grid stability. Additionally, the availability of low-cost natural gas ensures that gas-fired power plants remain highly competitive. The rising demand for uninterrupted electricity in data centers, industrial operations, and urban centers also supports growth, keeping thermal power relevant in the country's diversified energy portfolio.

➤Market Dynamics

Drivers: The major driver is the surge in electricity demand from industrial sectors, smart grids, and digital infrastructure such as data centers. Natural gas availability and its cost competitiveness also push the adoption of gas-fired power plants.

Market Restraining Factor: Stricter environmental regulations and federal policies targeting carbon emissions create challenges for coal and oil-based thermal power. The growth of renewables and government incentives for clean energy also limit the long-term expansion of thermal power.

Key Market Opportunity: Modernization of existing plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and transitioning to high-efficiency gas turbines represent significant opportunities. Furthermore, demand for reliable backup power in renewable-heavy states offers growth potential for thermal plants.

➤Market Segmentation

The US thermal power market is segmented based on fuel type and end-use sector. By fuel type, it is classified into coal, natural gas, and oil. Natural gas dominates the segment owing to abundant shale reserves, rapid deployment of combined cycle plants, and its lower emissions compared to coal. Coal remains in use, particularly in the Midwest, though its share is declining due to stricter environmental controls. Oil-based plants contribute minimally but play a role in providing emergency or peaking power in select regions.

By end-use sector, segmentation includes residential, commercial, and industrial. The industrial sector leads the demand, with manufacturing, petrochemicals, and data centers requiring large-scale, continuous power supply. The commercial sector, including offices and retail, also contributes significantly to electricity demand. Residential consumption, though steady, has seen slower growth compared to industrial and commercial use, with efficiency improvements in appliances balancing overall demand. These segmentation trends highlight the diverse demand base sustaining the thermal power market.

➤Regional Insights

Regionally, the Southern US holds the largest market share due to its well-established natural gas infrastructure, favorable policies, and industrial expansion. Texas, in particular, leads with massive natural gas reserves and a large base of thermal power plants. The Midwest continues to rely on coal-based power, though modernization efforts are underway. The Northeast has shifted significantly towards gas-fired power and imports, while the Western region maintains a balanced mix but faces regulatory pressures to expand renewable generation. This regional diversity underscores the market's adaptability and the role of localized fuel availability in shaping the thermal power landscape.

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➤Competitive Landscape

The US thermal power market is moderately competitive, with companies investing in high-efficiency plants and renewable integration. Leading players are focusing on upgrading old facilities, deploying advanced turbines, and exploring CCS technologies.

➤Company Insights

✦ General Electric (GE)
✦ Duke Energy Corporation
✦ NRG Energy Inc.
✦ Southern Company
✦ American Electric Power (AEP)
✦ Dominion Energy Inc.
✦ NextEra Energy, Inc.
✦ Vistra Corp.
✦ Calpine Corporation
✦ Exelon Corporation

➤Key Industry Developments

The industry has seen increasing investment in natural gas-fired plants, replacing outdated coal-based facilities. Utilities are actively investing in combined cycle technologies to enhance efficiency and reduce emissions. For instance, several US states have approved modernization projects to retrofit aging coal plants with gas-based operations.

At the same time, carbon capture initiatives are gaining traction. Companies like Southern Company and NRG Energy are testing pilot projects to explore cost-effective CCS deployment, aligning with federal climate goals while ensuring thermal power remains relevant in the long term.

➤Innovation and Future Trends

The future of the US thermal power market will revolve around hybrid systems where thermal plants act as backup to renewable energy sources. Smart grids and digital controls are enabling flexible operations, allowing thermal plants to balance variable renewable inputs.

Technological advancements, including advanced gas turbines and CCS, are expected to redefine thermal power's role. The focus is on efficiency, emissions reduction, and integration with cleaner energy systems. This transformation positions thermal power as a complementary, rather than competing, force in the evolving US energy mix.

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