Ductless Heating & Cooling Systems Market Growth Projection 2025-2035: OEMs Mitsubishi Electric, Daikin, Johnson Controls & Trane

The global Ductless Heating & Cooling Systems Market is projected to experience significant expansion, rising from a valuation of USD 133.3 billion in 2025 to USD 287.8 billion by 2035, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0%. This growth is being underpinned by shifting consumer preferences, regulatory changes, smart home adoption, and growing demand for energy-efficient solutions.

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Market Overview and Growth Catalysts

In a landscape increasingly shaped by sustainability mandates and smarter living, ductless systems have become a cornerstone of the evolving HVAC market. Unlike traditional ducted systems, these systems offer targeted climate control with minimal installation disruption and greater energy efficiency. Factors like rising global temperatures, increased urbanization, and the adoption of remote working practices have amplified the need for personalized and energy-conscious comfort solutions.

Governments around the world are offering incentives to encourage the use of environmentally friendly systems. These policies, coupled with the rising integration of IoT and smart thermostats, are giving ductless heating and cooling systems a clear competitive advantage over their conventional counterparts. Additionally, these systems offer greater flexibility in both new constructions and retrofit projects-making them attractive across various end-use sectors.

Competitive Analysis: Key Players Redefining HVAC Performance

Prominent market players such as DAIKIN INDUSTRIES LTD, LG ELECTRONICS, HITACHI LTD., MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC CORPORATION, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO., LTD., TRANE TECHNOLOGIES, and LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC. are spearheading innovation in the ductless HVAC space. These companies are enhancing product lines with features such as variable refrigerant flow (VRF), inverter-based compressors, and seamless connectivity with smart devices.

Recent launches, such as Carrier's communicative 40MAHB indoor unit and 38MARB outdoor unit, along with Durastar's new mini-split systems, showcase how companies are addressing evolving consumer expectations while maintaining their focus on sustainability and performance.

Segmental Insights: Split Systems and Residential Buildings Dominate

The Split System segment is poised to account for 34.0% of market revenue in 2025. Their dominance stems from easy installation, energy-saving capabilities, and adaptability across different room sizes. These systems also provide quiet operation and minimal maintenance, making them ideal for modern urban residences.

On the application front, Residential Buildings are projected to contribute 48.0% of total revenue in 2025. The growing demand for compact, efficient solutions in small apartments and homes-especially in cities-has made ductless systems a preferred choice. Increased awareness of indoor air quality, rising disposable income, and the growing trend of smart home adoption are accelerating this momentum.

Smart Homes Powering Adoption

Ductless HVAC systems are increasingly becoming integral to smart home ecosystems. Their ability to precisely control air temperature and quality while consuming less energy makes them a sustainable choice. Advanced models now integrate sensors, smart thermostats, and wireless connectivity-allowing users to adjust climate settings remotely through cloud-based platforms.

For instance, ENERGY STAR-certified mini-split systems reportedly use up to 60% less energy for heating and 30% less for cooling, when compared to conventional ACs. These efficiency gains are essential for achieving climate targets and meeting stringent building codes.

Regional Spotlight: North America and China Leading the Charge

North America remains a high-potential market owing to its robust HVAC manufacturing base and rising retrofitting activities. According to the 2024 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, 88% of U.S. households use air conditioning, highlighting the massive addressable market for ductless upgrades. The shift toward decarbonized, energy-efficient buildings will further drive demand across the region.

China, meanwhile, is emerging as a key growth engine due to rapid urbanization, ongoing infrastructure development, and consumer inclination toward modern, low-maintenance systems. The integration of ductless HVAC solutions in new residential and mixed-use buildings is becoming increasingly common, supported by proactive government policies and investment incentives.

Sales Trends and Market Outlook

Between 2020 and 2024, the ductless HVAC market saw steady growth. From 2025 to 2035, it is expected to grow at a consistent CAGR of 8.0%, as both emerging and mature markets pivot toward low-carbon, highly efficient cooling and heating alternatives. The adoption of advanced technologies such as IoT and AI-enabled predictive maintenance tools is further strengthening the case for ductless solutions in both residential and commercial sectors.

Challenges to Market Expansion

Despite strong growth potential, the market faces challenges including environmental concerns over refrigerants, lack of consumer awareness in some low-income economies, and limited skilled workforce for specialized installations. Addressing these hurdles through training programs, sustainable refrigerant alternatives, and stronger consumer outreach will be key to maintaining long-term momentum.

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Future-Proofing HVAC with Ductless Innovation

With climate imperatives becoming more urgent and smart living taking center stage, ductless heating and cooling systems are well-positioned for global adoption. Their scalable design, high efficiency, and compatibility with modern technologies make them an essential component of future-ready infrastructure. Backed by innovations from leading players and growing global demand, the market is poised to not only meet but exceed expectations by 2035.

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