China Commercial Real Estate Market to Reach USD 1.16 Trillion by 2030, Driven by Urbanization and Evolving Business Needs

Mordor Intelligence has published a new report on the China Commercial Real Estate Market, offering a comprehensive analysis of trends, growth drivers, and future projections.

China Commercial Real Estate Market Overview

China's commercial real estate sector is projected to grow from USD 0.86 trillion in 2025 to USD 1.16 trillion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.31%. This growth is underpinned by significant public investments, evolving occupier demands, and a shift towards asset-light business models. However, challenges such as oversupply in certain segments and high borrowing costs for developers continue to impact the market.

Report Overview: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/china-commercial-real-estate-market?utm_source=openPR

Key Trends

1. Urbanization and Infrastructure Development

China's ongoing urbanization, supported by a USD 563.4 billion public-funding initiative for housing and urban projects, is driving demand for commercial real estate. This investment is facilitating the development of modern logistics facilities, Grade-A office spaces, and data-driven campuses, particularly in tier-1 cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen.

2. Rise of Logistics Properties

Logistics properties are experiencing the fastest growth within the commercial real estate sector, with a projected CAGR of 7.72% through 2030. This surge is attributed to the booming e-commerce sector and the government's dual-circulation policy, which emphasizes domestic consumption and trade. High warehouse occupancy rates and increased demand for automated distribution centers are indicative of this trend.

3. Shift Towards Rental Business Models

While sales dominated the market with a 62% share in 2024, rental operations are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.98% through 2030. This shift reflects a broader trend towards stable income streams and long-term investment horizons, appealing to institutional investors seeking predictable returns.

4. Changing Occupier Preferences

Corporate tenants and small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) accounted for 66.1% of the market share in 2024. There's a growing preference for high-quality office spaces that offer flexibility and align with sustainability goals. This demand is influencing developers to focus on upgrading existing assets rather than pursuing new developments.

5. Policy Support and Regulatory Adjustments

The Chinese government's policy tilt favors asset upgrades over new developments, promoting urban renewal and the repurposing of existing structures. Additionally, the introduction of infrastructure real estate investment trusts (C-REITs) is unlocking institutional capital, providing developers with alternative financing options and enhancing market liquidity.

Market Segmentation

By Property Type

Office Spaces: Held a 34% share of the market in 2024. Grade-A offices are experiencing steady demand, driven by corporate tenants seeking modern amenities and flexible workspaces.

Logistics Properties: Projected to register the fastest growth with a 7.72% CAGR through 2030. The rise of e-commerce and the need for efficient supply chains are fueling this demand.

Retail and Hospitality: While facing challenges due to changing consumer behaviors, these sectors are adapting by focusing on experience-based offerings and repurposing spaces to meet new demands.

By Business Model

Sales: Dominated the market with a 62% share in 2024. Developers continue to pursue sales as a primary revenue model, although the focus is shifting towards more sustainable approaches.

Rental Operations: Expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.98% through 2030. This model is gaining traction among institutional investors seeking stable income streams and long-term capital appreciation.

By End-User

Corporate and SMEs: Accounted for 66.1% of the market share in 2024. These entities are increasingly prioritizing high-quality office spaces that offer flexibility and align with sustainability goals.

Individual Investors: Representing the fastest-growing cohort with a 6.73% CAGR through 2030. Individual investors are showing increased interest in commercial real estate as a means of diversifying their investment portfolios.

By City

Shanghai: Captured a 22% share of the market in 2024. The city continues to be a major hub for commercial real estate, attracting both domestic and international investors.

Chengdu: On track for the highest growth with a 7.24% CAGR by 2030. The city's development as a technology and innovation center is driving demand for commercial spaces.

中国の商業不動産市場について詳しく知る
- https://www.mordorintelligence.com/ja/industry-reports/china-commercial-real-estate-market?utm_source=openPR

Key Players

Several prominent developers and investors are shaping the landscape of China's commercial real estate market:

Wanda Group: A leading developer with a diverse portfolio spanning retail, office, and mixed-use properties.

Greenland Holdings: Known for its large-scale developments and focus on urban renewal projects.

Longfor Group: Emphasizes asset management and investment properties, particularly shopping malls, to secure stable income streams.wsj.com

China Resources Land: A state-owned enterprise transitioning towards a "build to hold" strategy, focusing on long-term rental income.en.wikipedia.org

GLP: Specializes in logistics properties and has been expanding its presence in China's e-commerce-driven real estate sector.

These companies are adapting to market dynamics by focusing on asset management, urban renewal, and catering to evolving occupier preferences.

Conclusion

China's commercial real estate market is poised for steady growth, driven by urbanization, evolving business needs, and supportive government policies. While challenges such as oversupply in certain segments and high borrowing costs for developers persist, the shift towards rental business models, asset upgrades, and logistics properties presents opportunities for investors and developers. Adapting to these trends and focusing on sustainability and flexibility will be key to success in this evolving market.

Industry Related Reports

Commercial Real Estate Market: The market is segmented by property type, including Offices, Retail, Logistics, and others. It is further divided by business model (Sales, Rental), end-user (Individuals/Households, Corporates & SMEs, and others), and region (North America, South America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East & Africa).

To know more visit this link: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/commercial-real-estate-market?utm_source=openPR

Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market: The market is segmented by property type, including Office, Retail, Industrial, Logistics, Hospitality, and Multi-family. It is also analyzed by key cities, such as Istanbul, Bursa, and Antalya.

To know more visit this link: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/commercial-real-estate-market-in-turkey?utm_source=openPR

Saudi Arabia Commercial Real Estate Market: The market is segmented by property type, including Office, Retail, Logistics, and more. It is further categorized by business model (Sales and Rental), end user (Individuals/Households, Corporates and SMEs, and more), and region (Riyadh, Jeddah, Makkah, and the Rest of Saudi Arabia).

To know more visit this link: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/commercial-real-estate-market-in-saudi-arabia?utm_source=openPR

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This release was published on openPR.