Analysis of Ammonia Prices Trend, News, Historical and Forecast Data

Ammonia Price Trends and Outlook - CFR China

Ammonia prices in the Chinese market, assessed on a CFR (Cost and Freight) basis, experienced a clear downward trend through the final quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. This decline reflects global market pressures, shifting demand in key sectors, and growing concerns around supply chain stability.

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In October 2024, ammonia prices dropped to USD 439 per metric ton (MT) from USD 546/MT in October 2023 - a steep 19% year-on-year (YoY) decline. This sharp fall was largely attributed to excess supply from major exporting regions and subdued buying interest from fertilizer producers amid delayed agricultural demand and fluctuating natural gas prices, which play a critical role in ammonia production.

In November 2024, prices continued to weaken, albeit at a slower pace. Ammonia was priced at USD 430/MT, down 3% YoY from USD 446/MT in November 2023. By December 2024, the price edged lower to USD 404/MT, reflecting a 2% YoY decline from USD 412/MT in the previous year. The smaller drop in the last two months indicates that prices may be stabilizing, though they remain vulnerable to market shifts.

According to Expert Market Research, ammonia prices are expected to remain volatile in 2025. The forecast is influenced by uneven global supply, changes in natural gas availability and costs, and unpredictable demand from fertilizer and industrial chemical sectors. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges in key regions could further disrupt trade flows.

As a result, buyers and suppliers should be prepared for price fluctuations and adopt flexible procurement strategies. While current prices offer some relief for consumers, the outlook remains cautious, hinging on how global production and demand balance out in the coming year.

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Global Ammonia Market: Leading Exporters, Importers, and Major Suppliers

The global ammonia market is supported by a robust network of key exporting and importing countries, alongside major international suppliers who drive production and distribution. Ammonia, a vital component in fertilizers and industrial chemicals, sees consistent global demand and trade activity.

Leading Exporting Countries

Trinidad and Tobago is a leading exporter of ammonia, supported by its natural gas reserves and established production infrastructure. Saudi Arabia and Canada also play major roles in the export market, benefiting from abundant feedstock and advanced manufacturing capabilities. Other key exporters include Indonesia, USA, Netherlands, Germany, and Egypt, each leveraging strategic location and production scale to supply global markets efficiently.

Leading Importing Countries

On the import side, the United States is the largest buyer, driven by demand from agriculture and industrial sectors. India, Morocco, and South Korea are also major importers, reflecting their strong fertilizer industries and limited domestic production. Other significant importers include Turkey, Belgium, China, and Norway, where ammonia imports support domestic consumption across various industries.

Major Ammonia Suppliers

The global ammonia supply chain is anchored by several major producers with international reach. CF Industries (USA) and Nutrien (Canada) are among the largest suppliers, with strong North American and international footprints. Jinmei Group and Yihua Group (both from China) cater to regional and export markets with large-scale ammonia production.
Qatar Fertilizer Company (QAFCO) is a key Middle Eastern supplier, while PetroChina Group and EuroChem Group (Switzerland) maintain significant presence in both production and distribution. Acro Group (India) also plays a growing role in the global market.

These exporters, importers, and suppliers collectively support the complex and interdependent global ammonia trade, helping meet the diverse needs of agriculture and industry worldwide.

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Report Scope:
• Historical Price Data and Analysis, 2021-2024
o Historical Price Data - Monthly
o Grade-Wise Price Fluctuation
o Correlation with Feedstock Price Movement
o Key Market Opportunities and Risks
• Price Outlook
o Monthly Price Forecast (Rolling 3-month forecast for 12 months) (3 Month Quarterly Update)
o Long-Term Price Forecast (2 years), 2025-2026
o Price Influencing Factors
• Supply and Demand Analysis
o Global Market Supply Analysis (2021-2026)
o Global Market Demand Analysis (2021-2026)
o Demand-Supply Gap Analysis
o Historical Dynamics (2021-2024)
o Market Dynamics (Drivers and Constraints)
o Top 5 Deficit Countries with Net Import
o Top 5 Surplus Countries with Net Export
• Cost Breakdown of Tin Plate
o Direct Cost
o Indirect Costs
o Tax and Regulatory Costs
o Profit Margin
• Latest Industry News
o Recent Developments
o Geopolitical Events
o Insights From Government Data and Industries Bodies
• Key Macroeconomic Indicators
o GDP Growth
o Inflation Rates
o Currency Exchange Rates
o Impact on Commodity Prices

How Claight Corporation (Expert Market Research) Database Can Help

The latest report by Expert Market Research, "Ammonia Prices, Trends, Charts, Demand, and Market Analysis - 2025 Edition," offers a comprehensive overview of the global pricing landscape for ammonia. Designed for industry stakeholders, the study provides detailed historical and forecast price data, highlighting key market shifts and emerging pricing trends.

Drawing from in-depth research, the report analyses the primary factors influencing ammonia prices, including fluctuations in raw material availability, changes in production capacity, and macroeconomic or geopolitical developments. Additionally, the report evaluates global and regional demand patterns, outlining how shifts in end-use industries such as construction, paper, and plastics are impacting market dynamics. By examining the supply-demand balance, Expert Market Research's report helps businesses understand the underlying forces shaping current and future pricing environments, offering valuable insights to guide procurement, pricing strategy, and investment planning.

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